2.0 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

The purpose of the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) is to identify the type and frequency of disasters in Noble County and to describe the risk to people, property, and structures resulting from those hazards. This process allows officials and residents to better prepare for incidents before they occur, and to take action ahead of time to reduce the negative impacts of those incidents.

The HIRA is composed of four sections. The County Profile (2.1) provides demographic and descriptive information about Noble County and its jurisdictions. The Hazard Identification (2.2) identifies and describes hazards that pose a threat to Noble County and provides a brief history of significant occurrences. The Vulnerability Assessment (2.3) examines the vulnerability of each individual jurisdiction, and the Risk Analysis (2.4) evaluates and ranks the risks Noble County will address through its mitigation efforts.

This plan section will also describe the local ability to respond to a variety of incidents. The social, financial, and physical vulnerability of each community and the county will be discussed. The local capacity to address core capabilities associated with response will be examined and analyzed, and gap areas where capabilities are not sufficient for worst-case scenarios will be addressed. Noble County’s ability to manage all eight community lifelines will be examined and gap areas will be described, including where and how the county would compensate for and backfill those needs based upon past significant events and community history.

Various demographic online tools have been used to research and address social vulnerability and community resilience, factors that will provide the foundation for mitigation strategies formulated to meet the unique and individualized needs of Noble County’s small communities. As a rural county among Ohio’s least populated, Noble County is unlikely to receive federal assistance in a widespread disaster. Most assistance from outside the immediate region would likely come from Columbus, but this is very unlikely. To realistically discuss these theoretical situations, stakeholders have diligently worked to identify gaps in local capabilities and resources, potential areas of response compromise, and the special needs of various populations within the county. This section will address disabled and disadvantaged persons, and transient populations that are passing through the county at the time of the incident, as well as the more typical populations like elderly, isolated, and those without local family connections.

Discussions examined and analyzed community capabilities to respond in a significant disaster as well as a long-term incident, and to identify where additional help would be found if an incident reached past the limitations of local capabilities. As a rural county, Noble County officials recognize that it is the county’s burden to identify alternate and non-traditional resources to meet potential disaster needs as a way to minimize long-term negative effects on residents, their families and their property.

Goals included the identification of ways to ensure that every person in Noble County has a similar opportunity to survive a disaster in a similar manner, and has the ability to recover to the same degree as other residents. Realizing that the county would require more resources and services to make that happen, discussions included the identification of those probable groups of people and discussion about how that process might work to enable them to survive the worst of days.

Indicators of changing weather patterns have been discussed and deliberated. Situated some distance from any metropolitan area in Ohio, Noble County is not significantly affected by new massive manufacturing plants or excessive traffic flow across federal highways. With extensive woodlands and hilly area, the county is not overburdened with extensive development industrially or residentially. Some of the very negative environmental and social impacts felt in the major metropolitan areas like Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland are not present in Noble County.

In Noble County, people tend to know one another and take their neighbor in when disaster strikes because outside resources are limited. Many families have lived in Noble County for generations. Communities of only a few hundred or so residents have few resources, but many neighbors are willing to share their homes, supplies and help. They cite the infrequency with which disaster strikes, although they realize the possibilities. While they may be limited in equipment or other goods, they are filled with the desire and willingness to help one another. They have the ability to improvise, adapt and overcome.

Needs after a severe storm may be addressed differently, and perhaps anecdotally, in these communities because they do not have access to fully certified shelters, commercially provided food supplies, and sufficient response personnel to meet post-disaster needs for help.

Residents will identify a need, and develop a solution to solve it. Noble County residents assume they will need to help themselves, if only for the first few days in the worst situations. These characteristics unique to small rural communities change little over the years. However, changes in storm characteristics and other natural phenomenon are noted, and discussions included these potential effects of worsening storms that hit much harder and faster.

This plan, through application of the information in this section, intends to then develop mitigation strategies that will equitably and inclusively provide potential solutions for disaster outcomes likely in Noble County. Stakeholders worked to identify, characterize and understand how each group of its local society will react and respond to disasters of catastrophic or serious magnitude, and developed solutions to ensure that all populations, all communities, and all parts of this small county can survive and recover from a disaster successfully and become as whole as possible after the incident.

Map 2-1: Noble County Map

Noble County is located in southeast Ohio. Columbus is approximately 100 miles to the northwest, and Cleveland is 140 miles directly north. Pittsburgh, PA is 125 miles to the

northeast. Noble County is considered “southeast Ohio”. It is bordered by Guernsey, Belmont,

Monroe, Washington, Morgan and Muskingum counties.

The US Census in 2020 shows a total population of 14,115, and the Ohio County Profile lists its 2023 estimated population as 14,311. Noble County is the fourth least -populated county in Ohio. According to the Ohio County Profile from the Ohio Department of Development, Noble County population was highest for the 2010 US Census at 14,645. It is anticipated that the 2030 population will be nearly a thousand people less, and by 2050 will decrease by over two thousand residents.

Noble County consists of 399 square miles. There are no major inland lakes or shorelines, but several creeks and streams, described in detail later, flow through the county. Willis Creek, Duck Creek branches, and tributaries of the Ohio River drain the county. The Muskingum River then drains these waterways into the Ohio River. Senecaville Lake lies in the far northern part of the county, and Wolf Run Lake lies north of Caldwell. Cline Lake is a small private lake in the far northeast.

The Noble County Board of County Commissioners and other elected and appointed officials provide leadership, support, and service to the county. In addition to the commissioners, elected officials include the county Engineer, Auditor, Treasurer, Clerk of Courts, Prosecutor and Sheriff, all of whom are instrumental in mitigation planning activities. Appointed officials particularly involved included the chief elected and appointed officials, floodplain managers, community development coordinators, social assistance departments, agricultural industry leaders, conservation and natural resources employees, social service departments, social organizations, healthcare providers, and many others. Many officials in Noble County fill multiple roles in the community, crossing local levels of government and combining responsibilities in a non-traditional way that allows the available staffing to fill all critical roles.

1. Demographics

   According to US Census data, the estimated 2023 population in Noble County is 14,311. The 2010 population was 14,645. The county is experiencing a slight downward trend in population; this is expected to continue for the next several decades. This slight decrease is common in

   Ohio’s rural communities and represents an elderly population decrease through death and a

   challenging job environment for younger workers and gradual migration to metropolitan areas.

   
   

   Table 2-1: Noble County Demographics

   Statistic	Figure
   Population Density	35.86 persons/sq. mile
   Population (2023 Est.)	14,311
   Female Population	39.0%
   Male Population	61.0%
   Median Age	51.9 years
   Population 5 to 17 years	13/8%
   Population under 5	4.9%
   Population over 65 and over	28.4%
   White	93.8%
   Hispanic or Latino	1.3%
   African-American	3.9%
   Two or More races	1.0%
   Households	4.545
   Average Household Size	3.14 persons
   Median Household Income	$51,547
   Families in Poverty	10.5%
   Percent w/o health insurance	7.2%
   Persons with a disability	20.0%
   Owner-occupied Residential structures	82.0%
   Language spoken other than English	0.5%
   Veterans	8.8%
   Households with no vehicle or access	9.8%

   
   

   Households with Internet/broadband	65.1%
   Households with a computer	72.0%
   Rental Units	18.1%
   Mobile Homes	16.0%
   Total Housing Units	5,797
   New home construction in 2023	13
   High School Graduates >25 y/o	85.3%

   
   

   Noble County has 5,797 housing units according to the 2023 United States Census estimates. The owner-occupied housing rate is 82%; median value of owner-occupied units is $149,300. The median monthly cost for a home with a mortgage is $1,195, and average rent is $716.

   
   

   Multi-unit housing structures such as apartment buildings account for 7.0% of all housing units. Mobile home occupancy is 18%. There is one mobile home park listed for Noble County, in Caldwell, and it has 18 lots.

   Roughly 72% of households have a computer; 65.1% of households have access to broadband internet. According to Ohio Department of Development and Broadband.Ohio.gov/maps, the majority of the county has access to 0-9 Mbps internet service only, which is the same as the majority of Ohio’s rural counties. The Muskingum Valley ESC Telehealth Pilot Project is underway in Noble County, among other counties to the northwest and west. Ohio Broadband indicates that 97% of the populated area and 78% of households in Noble County do not have access to minimum 25/3 Mbps broadband service.

   
   

   Multiple special residential housing facilities are present across the county. Noble County’s closest hospital is in Cambridge. There is only one nursing home, one assisted living facilities, and no specialty facilities. There is one federally qualified health care clinic. The State of Ohio operates a correctional facility in Noble County with a maximum capacity of 2,516 inmates.

   There is one county jail at the Noble County Sheriff’s Office that has a maximum capacity of 36.

   As of 2025, the types of facilities and statistics for each type are summarized as follows:

   Table 2-2: Special Residential Facilities

   Facility Type	Number	Beds
   Nursing Home Facilities	1	95
   Assisted Living Facilities	1	26
   Jails and confinement	2	2,552
   Hospice	0	n/a
   Hospitals	0	n/a
   Federally Qualified Health Clinics	1	n/a
   Home Health Agencies	3	n/a
   Mental Health Clinics	0	n/a

2. Incorporated Jurisdictions

   Noble County incorporated jurisdictions include six villages and fifteen townships.

   
   

   Batesville

   This village was originally named “Williamsburg” and was laid out in 1827. It is located in the middle of Beaver Township in the northeast corner of Noble County.

   Table 2-3: Batesville Demographics V2024

   Statistic	Figure
   Population, V2023	68
   White	100%
   Hispanic or Latino	0%
   Households	20
   Median Income	$92,500
   Persons in Poverty	1.5%
   Owner-Occupied Homes	80.0%
   Elderly >65 y/o	25.0%
   Veterans	7.7%

   Belle Valley

   Belle Valley is located north of Caldwell along Interstate 77. It was incorporated in 1905 when the Cleveland and Marietta Railroad was extended to that point. It is located on the West Fork of Duck Creek in Noble Township.

   Table 2-4: Belle Valley Demographics

   Statistics	Figure
   Population, 2020 US Census	185
   White	97%
   Hispanic or Latino	1.0%
   Households	72
   Median Income	$55,208
   Persons in Poverty	12.4%
   Owner-Occupied Homes	69%
   Elderly >65 y/o	29.0%
   Veterans	19.0%

   Caldwell

   Caldwell is the county seat of Noble County and the largest municipality. It is located on the West Fork of Duck Creek. In the 1870’s the Pennsylvania Railroad reached Caldwell and tied it to markets in the east and north along the Great Lakes.

   Table 2-5: Caldwell Demographics

   Statistic	Figure
   Population, V2023	1,872
   White	98.0%
   Hispanic or Latino	1.0%

   
   

   Households	820
   Median Income	$49,032
   Persons in Poverty	11.9%
   Owner-Occupied Homes	66.0%
   Elderly >65 y/o	37.0%
   Veterans	11.6%

   
   

   Dexter City

   This very small town sits on the West Fork of Duck Creek, and was named after Dexter W. Sullivan, an early settler, when laid out in 1870. It is the southern-most village in the county and lies along I-77 Where Olive, Jackson, Jefferson and Enoch Townships intersect.

   Table 2-6: Dexter City Demographics

   Statistic	Figure
   Population, V 2023	95
   White	100%
   Hispanic or Latino	0%
   Households	33
   Median Income	$53,750
   Persons in Poverty	29.5%
   Owner-Occupied Homes	70.0%
   Elderly >65 y/o	14.0%
   Veterans	2.9%

   Sarahsville

   This tiny community was named after Sarah Devold, the wife of an early settler. The post office has been in operation since 1840. This village is in Center Township where several key roads intersect. The Noble Local School District elementary and high school are located inside Sarahsville.

   Table 2-7: Sarahsville Demographics

   Statistic	Figure
   Population, V2023	126
   White	97.0%
   Hispanic or Latino	0%
   Households	40
   Median Income	$56,250
   Persons in Poverty	3.2%
   Owner-Occupied Homes	95.0%
   Elderly > 65 y/o	22.0%
   Veterans	9.3%

   Summerfield

   This village is located in Marion Township near the county line. It was founded in 1817 and named after a village pastor. The population is on a declining trend.

   Table 2-8: Summerfield Demographics

   Statistic	Figure
   Population, V2023	166
   White	97.0%
   Hispanic or Latino	3.0%
   Households	52
   Median Income	$50.500
   Persons in Poverty	18.2%
   Owner-Occupied Homes	73.0%
   Elderly >65 y/o	22.0%
   Veterans	9.7%
   Households      with      Internet

   
   

3. Townships and Unincorporated Communities

   Noble County is divided into fifteen townships. Each is governed by three trustees and a fiscal officer elected by the voters. They meet monthly and are responsible for the health, safety, and welfare of township residents. Eighty-two percent of the county residents live in the townships; this statistic is relatively stable with changes that are slight between census data from 2010 and 2020. Townships are not required to adopt the mitigation plan; Noble County acts on their behalf for mitigation actions and projects.

   
   

   Census areas and unincorporated communities are governed by the townships, and for mitigation purposes, fall under the direction of Noble County. These include relatively populated areas like Florence, Terrace and Maple Heights, and areas like Moundsville, South Olive, Carlisle, Flag and Road Fork. Some of these areas are home to a few dozen people, and others are simply an intersection that represents a location’s identity. These communities are listed in the narrative that follows.

   Table 2-9: Township Population Statistics

   Township	Population 2020	2010 Comparison	Change
   Beaver Township	755	767	-12
   Brookfield Township	112	99	-13
   Buffalo Township	885	815	-70
   Center Township	1,073	1,110	-37
   Elk Township	303	333	-30
   Enoch Township	443	440	+3
   Jackson Township	485	528	-43
   Jefferson Township	187	281	-94
   Marion Township	618	671	-53
   Noble Township	1,986	2,118	-132
   Olive Township	5,724	5,852	-128
   Seneca Township	423	479	-56
   Sharon Township	330	342	-12
   Stock Township	312	325	-13
   Wayne Township	479	485	-6

   Unincorporated Communities and Neighborhoods

   Noble County has twenty-four unincorporated communities and no census-designated areas. They do not have formal government, and do not function as a jurisdiction, but are well-known areas to local residents. Some of these areas are around a church and others are at a key

   location alongside a waterway, and they date back to Noble County’s historical roots.

   
   

   The unincorporated areas include the following:

   • Ava

   • Carlisle

   • Crooked Tree

   • Dudley

   • Dungannon

   • East Union

   • Elk

   • Fulda

   • Gem

   • Harrietsville

   • Hiramsburg

   • Honesty

   • Hoskinsville

   • Keith

   • Kennonsburg

   • Middleburg

   • Moundsville

   • Mounty Ephraim

   • Olive Green

   • Rochester

   • Sharon

   • South Olive

   • Steamtown

   • Whigville

   
   

4. Institutions and Special Facilities

   Noble County residents have access to multiple educational and healthcare resources in the county. Access to these services improves the quality of life for residents and contributes to the successful development of the economy and workforce.

   Education

   Students in Noble County are served by two public school districts. Vocational education is provided by Mid-East Career Center in Zanesville and Senecaville. There are no colleges in Noble County, but Ohio University, Zane State College, Muskingum University, Willet Pratt Training Center, and Marietta College are located within the general southeast Ohio region.

   
   

   Table 2-10: Noble County Schools

   Public School Districts	Private/Parochial Schools
   Noble Local School District Caldwell Exempted Village Schools Mid-East Career Technical School	None

   
   

   Healthcare

   Noble County residents utilize the OhioHealth Southeastern Medical Center in Cambridge for hospitalization and healthcare. There is no hospital in Noble County, and no urgent care centers either. Numerous residential healthcare facilities, such as nursing homes and assisted living facilities, are present in the county. Residential facilities of a healthcare nature are listed in Table 2-2 on page 2-6.

5. Infrastructure

   Infrastructure and related systems provide residents, workers, and visitors with access to critical services. This section describes transportation infrastructure, airports, and utilities.

   Transportation Systems

   Noble County has many miles of roadways, including interstates, state highways, and county, township, and municipal roads. There are no federal highways and only one interstate.

   
   

   Table 2-11: Noble County Highways

   Interstates U.S. State Highways Highways
   I-77	none	78	265	565
   		83	285	566
   		145	313	574
   		146	339	672
   		147	340	724
   		215	513	761
   		260	564	821

   Rail

   According to the Ohio Railway Map, there is no rail in Noble County. A Genessee and Wyoming line travels through Pleasant City in Guernsey County and comes very close to Noble County, but does not actually come into the county.

   Airports

   Noble County has one county airport that is open to the public. The Noble County Airport is located at 48535 Cold Water Creek Road in Caldwell. There are two runways that are asphalt in good condition. It is operated by the Noble County Airport Authority and has a manager in charge. There are five out-of-county airports within 30 miles. The property is referred to as the “Noble County Airpark”.

   
   

   Utilities

   The highest percentage of homes in Noble County, approximately 48.2%, are heated with natural gas. An additional 19.1% have an electric heat source, and 12.1% heat with bottled or LP gas. The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio regulates private companies that provide public utility services. These companies, along with municipal electric utilities, are identified in the table below.

   Table 2-12: Noble County Utility Providers

   Electric Service	Natural Gas Service
   Washington Electric Guernsey-Muskingum Electric AEP Ohio South Central Power	Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc.

   The remaining properties in the county are heated by other sources, including:

   • Solar energy or other fuel 2.6%

   • Coal, coke or wood 10.0%

   • Fuel oil, kerosene 7.2%

   • No fuel used 0.1%

   
   

   There are numerous gas lines that cross Noble County. Multiple lines cross east to west from Marion and Stock Townships, stretching horizontally across the county north of Caldwell and south of SR 215. One gas line heads south out of Stock Township through Olive and Jackson Townships. There is one hazardous liquid pipeline that crosses Beaver Township and ends in Marion Township

   The PHMSA website calls out an incident south of Summerfield on CR 43 in the past, and one northeast of Summerfield between SR 513 and the county line. Another on the far western county line near SR 821 is marked on the map between Caldwell and Dexter City. The map identifies no accidents of record.

   
   

   Wastewater, and storm sewer services are provided by the Village of Caldwell inside the village. The Village of Caldwell operates the water system for most of the county as well. Some residences outside the Village of Caldwell have septic systems, and some have wells that provide their water. Many households haul water from the Caldwell Water Department for personal use or when dry spells cause the natural water source to be insufficient. Farmers also haul water from the Caldwell plant sites to serve as water for livestock and for crop irrigation when natural water supplies are insufficient.

6. Topography and Climate

   Topography

   Noble County’s landscape features relatively flat terrain, although there are rolling hills and valleys that provide interest and variation. With almost 69% of the county covered by woodlands, there is relatively little farming in the county compared to other Ohio counties.

   
   

   Climate

   The climate of Noble County is considered humid continental, meaning there are four distinct seasons. Winters can be cold and snowy, and summers are warm and humid. Fall and spring are less severe, with increased precipitation and more variation from day to day. The average annual high temperature is 85 F and the average annual low is 22 F. July is the warmest month and January is the coldest month generally. Average annual precipitation is 56 inches. The most precipitation falls in June, with an average of 6.2 inches. November is the driest month with an average precipitation of 3.5 inches. Noble County residents see the most sun in August and the least in January.

7. Waterways and Watershed

   Noble County is part of two large watersheds. The Ohio River East Tributaries (Section #7, in brown highlight) covers most of the county, and the remaining area is part of the Muskingum River Watershed (Section #5, in yellow highlight), including the extreme southwestern and northeastern parts of the county.

   Map 2-2 Noble County Watersheds

   
   

   
   

   Muskingum River Watershed- Wills Creek Watershed

   The Wills Creek Watershed, part of the Muskingum River Watershed, includes areas in the far northeastern part of the county. Beaver and Wayne Townships make up most of this area. The waterways included in this watershed are as follows:

   
   

   • Beaver Creek

   • Glady

   • S. Fork of Seneca Fork

   • Rannells Creek

   • North Fork of Buffalo Creek

   • South Fork of Buffalo Creek

   • Little Buffalo Creek

     Map 2-3 Muskingum River Watershed - Wills Creek Sub-watershed

     The Muskingum River Lower Tributaries – Muskingum River Watershed

     This sub-watershed drains the far southwestern corner of Noble County, including most of Jackson, Sharon and Brookfield Townships. Olive Green Creek and its tributaries, as well as Taylor Fork Creek are included in this watershed.

     Map 2-4 Muskingum River Lower Tributaries Sub-watershed

     
     

     
     

     Ohio River Tributaries – East – Duck Creek Watershed

     Noble County, along with Washington, Monroe, and Guernsey counties, is part of the Duck Creek Watershed. This includes Duck Creek and its East, West and Middle Forks which run down the center of Noble County, through Caldwell, Belle Valley and Dexter City. It also includes Elk Fork and Wolf Run.

     Map 2-5: Ohio River Tributaries East – Duck Creek Watershed

8. Land Use

   The majority of Noble County is woodland. Just under 70% of the county is forest. Second in line for high use is pastureland and hay production, with another 3.43% in shrub and grasslands. Developed area is by far minimalized in this picturesque county.

   Table 2-13: Noble County Land Use

   Use Category	Percentage
   Forest	68.99%
   Pasture/Hay	18.92%
   Developed, Lower Intensity	6.24%
   Shrub/Scrub and Grasslands	3.43%
   Open Water	1.20%
   Developed, Higher Intensity	0.58%
   Wetlands	0.27%
   Barren (strip mines, gravel pits, etc.)	0.24%
   Cultivated Crops	0.13%

   
   

9. Regulation and Community Development Planning

   Noble County communities have adopted very minimal regulation. There are no building codes except for commercial codes that are applicable across the State of Ohio, enforced by the Southeast Ohio Building Department.

   
   

   Subdivision Regulations are established by the Noble County Planning Commission (revised March 2024), and Zoning Regulations are in place for the Village of Caldwell, Buffalo Township, Wayne Township and the Noble Airpark. (The Airpark is the official property name of the Noble County Airport. The area is zoned to be able to protect its perimeter.) No other areas have adopted zoning regulations.

   Floodplain regulations are in force across the county, with the exception of the Village of Batesville and the Village of Summerfield where there is no floodplain. Each jurisdiction with floodplain has established a floodplain manager, as indicated in Table 2-18.

   Permit processes are in place for septic, driveways, location address requestion, and Call-Before-You-Dig procedures. The Engineer establishes right of way, driveway and special permits, and provides logging guidance. The Engineer manages the permit process and enforces the regulations.

   
   

   Noble County has developed a Comprehensive Plan through the Noble County Planning Commission. Developers and builders are guided by a variety of building codes and operational codes, and the coverage varies between jurisdictions. While most codes are locally developed and implemented, commercial building codes are enacted by the State of Ohio Department of

   Commerce. Fire codes are established for commercial property by the Office of the State Fire Marshal.

   
   

   Zoning and Floodplain Management

   Zoning provides guidance for the location of various types of development. It acts to preserve farmland and protect it from industrial or residential development, and drives commercial development to areas that have the infrastructure to support their operations. Zoning is enacted through a voting process at the municipal or township level, but allows for exceptions to the rules through an appeal process. A zoning inspector administers the rules, and exceptions are determined through appeal to the Zoning Board of Appeals of that particular jurisdiction. Most areas of Noble County are not zoned, as shown in Table 2-14.

   
   

   Table 2-14: Noble County Zoning Status

   Zoned	Not Zoned
   Village of Caldwell Buffalo Township Wayne Township Noble Co. Airpark (aka Noble Co. Airport)	Village of Batesville Village of Belle Valley Village of Dexter City Village of Sarahsville Village of Summerfield Beaver Township Brookfield Township Center Township Elk Township Enoch Township Jackson Township Jefferson Township Marion Township Noble Township Olive Township Seneca Township Sharon Township Stock Township

   
   

   Most new development or significant change to an existing structure, residential or commercial, begins and ends with a zoning application where zoning regulations have been adopted. The zoning application initiates a review of the intended property use against the zoning regulations, and triggers a floodplain check and subdivision and curb break rule review through Noble County Regional Planning. The zoning application will also, when applicable, trigger a fire code compliance inspection, facilitated by the fire authority having jurisdiction, applicable to commercial property only.

   
   

   Should the intended use be inconsistent with the zoning rules in one of the zoned jurisdictions, the property owner will be advised to consider the application for a variance. If the property owner decides to proceed, the zoning variance will be considered by the zoning board with a

   ruling issued. Special stipulations may be issued as part of a zoning variance, or the variance may be approved or denied. The project will proceed only if a variance is granted.

   
   

   Each jurisdiction that has area in a floodplain and belongs to NFIP has a floodplain manager, listed in Table 2-18 Floodplain Managers in this section. The floodplain manager, sometimes in concert with the Regional Planning Director, is involved in construction of any property that is located in a floodplain. If the property is not located within a floodplain, the appropriate floodplain officials will sign off on the project. If it is in a floodplain, the floodplain manager and/or the Regional Planning Director will discuss options for materials, construction modifications, or other mitigation efforts necessary to move forward, or will deny the project if that is the appropriate action. The county’s floodplain manager is the EMA Director, and she also serves as the FPM for Belle Valley, Caldwell, Dexter City and Sarahsville.

   
   

   New Residential Development

   There are no residential building codes that cover Noble County home construction and renovation. Although municipalities have the authority to adopt and enforce residential codes that govern residential development, they have not done so.

   There are subdivision rules, septic regulations, lot split regulations, address assignment procedures, and driveway requirements.

   
   

   In areas where there are no sanitary sewers and homes must install a septic system, the Noble County Health Department inspects potential septic installations and issues those permits. If the structure is within a city or an area where sanitary sewers are provided, the jurisdiction having authority may require an application for installation or connection.

   
   

   In areas where there is no water distribution, homeowners depend upon individual wells. Noble County Health Department approves the wells by testing the water for safe consumption. If there is water distribution, there may be tap-in fees paid to gain access to that system.

   Community and Economic Development

   For new development projects, the process of building in Noble County often begins with the Noble County Community Development office in the OSU Extension Services office, or with the Buckeye Hills Regional Council. These two organizations drive commercial development in the county, each responsible for different tasks. It may also involve the Noble County Chamber of Commerce or the Noble County Community Improvement Corporation.

   
   

   Potential new businesses, or businesses that are intent upon expansion, may initially contact the Noble County Chamber of Commerce. This membership group of local businesses promotes local business expansion through a collaborative effort with government, other businesses, and various local organizations. The work with the Community Improvement Corporation of Noble County, Southeastern Ohio Port Authority, Buckeye Hills Hocking Valley

   Regional Development District, the Department of Job and Family Services, Eastern Ohio Development Alliance and OhioMeansJobs of Noble County.

   
   

   The Chamber serves as a first line of visible community promotion. They lead the pack of development organizations to attract new ventures, make connections between potential businesses and financial organizations, and to help them enter the process of opening in Noble County. They train people, mentor new leaders, share experiences, and solve problems based upon their collective experience as business owners as well as Noble County residents.

   
   

   Table 2-15: Noble County Chamber of Commerce Leadership

   Individual	Agency or Business	Position
   Richard Rutherford	R. J. Wright & Sons	Chairman
   Sherri Starr	Peoples Bank	At Large Director
   Darlene Miser	M & M Delivery/M & M Feed & Supply	Immediate Past Chair
   Joanne Steed	Caldwell Redi Mix Company	Treasurer
   Bryan Chandler	Chandler Funeral Home	At Large Director
   Courtnee Norman	Noble County Chamber of Commerce	Executive Director
   Mike Buckey	Buckey Disposal	Director
   Brandon Crock	Crock Construction/Do It Best	Director
   Gwynn Steward	Noble County Economic Development	Director
   Allen Fraley	Noble County Commissioner	Director
   Brian Schwieterman	SEORMC- Sports-Med Rehab Noble Do.	Director
   Chris Lashley	Lashley Tractor Supply	Director
   Guy Carpenter	Team Fishel	Director
   Trevor Black	Farmers & Merchants Bank	Director
   Jamie Smith	PVF Supply	Director
   Sue Groves	Leonard & Newland Real Estate	Director
   Klay Conaway	Village of Caldwell Administrator	Director
   Matt Wyscarver	Wolf Creek Contracting	Director
   Aerica Bates	Peoples Bank	Director

   
   

   The OSU Extension office of Community Development may serve as a contact for newly attracted businesses, or existing business expansion. They serve to connect business owners to local resources, such as financial institutions, emergency management officials, business mentors, or project planners and contractors. They work to integrate new or expanding businesses into the threads of Noble County, working through connections to transportation, workforce development, or other components of growth.

   Buckeye Hills Regional Council can do much the same. They outline resources, list available properties, and assist with regulations and processes necessary for new businesses. They can make connections into local government services and other assistance necessary to complete a project. One strength of this organization is that it has a regional approach to development, and can take into account the availabilities and needs of multiple counties, enhancing their likelihood of successfully attracting new business and industry to Noble County.

   The Southeastern Ohio Port Authority help identify opportunities, secure investments, and streamline growth initiatives. The work together with other development groups to solve problems, facilitate communication, and open new ventures. This group establishes strategic partnerships, coordinates projects and enhances economic factors in Noble County. They identify and list available properties, and share information with contractors interested in bidding on projects. While they work primarily for Washington County, Noble County does sometimes benefit as an adjacent county.

   
   

   The Noble County Community Improvement Corporation is a part of Noble County government. The corporation consist of local business owners and elected officials who are resources for new and existing business owners who want to locate or expand in Noble County. They are led by a Board of Trustees that come from the membership, and they have staff that assists in conducting the business of the corporation. County and jurisdiction elected and appointed officials participate in this organization, and ensure that all communities have a say in how the county executes economic development goals and the decisions associated with that growth.

   Table 2-16: Noble County Economic Development Corporation Leadership

   Individual	Agency or Business	Position
   Scott Braden	Ben Schafer Realty	President
   Edward Crock	Crock Construction/Do It Best	Vice President
   Diane Braden	Health Coach	Treasurer
   Courtnee Norman	Noble County Chamber of Commerce	Executive Director
   Richard Rutherford	R. J. Wright & Sons	Member
   Gwynn Norman	OSU Office of Community Development	Secretary; OSU Office of Community Dev.
   Misty Wells	Village of Caldwell	Mayor
   Gary Saling	Noble County	County Commissioner
   Matt Wyscarver	Wolf Creek Contracting	Member

   Community Development Planning and Strategic Activities

   The OSU Extension Service Community Development office has worked with the Center for Economic Development and Community Resilience at the Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Service at Ohio University to develop the Noble County Economic Development Strategic Plan. This strategic plan examined the demographic characteristics of Noble County and its communities, and established projections into the coming years in detail. This information not only projects population trends, but also establishes the basis for workplace development through setting workforce expectations into the coming years. Education levels, income projections, housing needs, health concerns and goals, and behavioral and social trends were all established to provide a foundation for economic development. This plan went on to set specific strategic goals in the area of community and economic development for the years to come. Their goals included several in each of the following areas of interest:

   
   

   • Infrastructure support and growth for growing communities and businesses;

   • Methods of supporting the development of small businesses through entrepreneurism and leadership;

   • Emphasis upon flood hazard management as it pertains to personal and business impacts, including creation of affordable and effective debris management and waterway maintenance;

   • Development of housing programs to adequately provide homes and apartments for the workforce in a manner that drives and supports growth;

   • Promoting and refining tourism and outdoor recreation for Noble County families and visitors.

     
     

     Buckeye Hills Regional Council has developed a Long-Range Transportation Plan for Noble County and the businesses within the county, as part of the regional plan. This plan identifies the individual and business needs for transportation services in a variety of modes, including highway, rail, intermodal, and air. Without adequate transportation of workers to and from their jobs, in a regional perspective, the workforce cannot sustain new development. Without the presence of adequate ingress and egress for goods and services, developing businesses will not be successful. The need for transportation and logistics to drive retail development, industrial production, manufacturing and service providers is part of community growth, and Buckeye Hills outlined a comprehensive program to meet this need.

     Buckeye Hills discussed several components in this strategic plan. They considered commuting patterns, roadway conditions, safety, transit and transportation service, active transportation, freight characteristics and needs, and maritime freight considerations. They concluded by establishing the following general goals:

   • Maintain and preserve the region’s transportation system;

   • Strengthen the regions’ economic vitality

   • Promote and support safety improvements;

   • Advance mobility and accessibility.

   Buckeye Hills Regional Council and OSU Extension Community Development worked together to prepare the REDI Plan for the Buckeye Hills region which is a rural economic development initiative. The Purdue University Center for Regional Development assisted with this effort. This document expressly includes information that is helpful in guiding decision-making about development concerns and projects. Section 02 of this plan review the basic demographics of the region. Section 03 discusses economic development by industry, by changes in distribution and demographics over the past two decades. It documents trends in various occupations, including agriculture, industry, manufacturing, and services. The plan considers the needs and components of workforce development and training, and access to appropriate, capable workers. Section 05 discusses technology, including access to broadband, computers, and other devices. Buckeye Hills Regional Council and OSU Office of Community Development will

   use this plan in their efforts to promote and grow Noble County. The officials, by title, are listed in the table below, as they provide regulatory support and services.

   
   

   Table 2-17: Code and Regulation Compliance Resources

   Jurisdiction	Office	Official
   Southeast Ohio Building Department	Commercial/Industrial Building Code Department	Chief Building Official/Inspector
   Ohio State Fire Marshal	Office of the Fire Marshal	State Fire Marshal Inspector
   Buffalo Township	Buffalo Township Zoning	Zoning Inspector
   Wayne Township	Wayne Township Zoning	Zoning Inspector
   Village of Caldwell	Caldwell Administration Building	Zoning Inspector
   Noble County Belle Valley Caldwell Sarahsville	Floodplain Manager Office Noble County EMA	Floodplain Manager
   Dexter City	Village Hall	Floodplain Manager
   All Areas	Fire Code Enforcement @ Local Fire Jurisdiction	Contact with OSFM

   Under Titles 3 and 7 of the Ohio Revised Code, the county and all municipal corporations have the authority to establish, maintain and improve a large number of capabilities listed in Tables 2-20 and 2-21, that follow. However, their ability to establish, maintain, or improve upon the capabilities vary based on their respective need, political will, and financial capacity. Compared to larger communities, smaller jurisdictions may have the same authority enabled to them by the Ohio Revised Code, but have less ability to establish, maintain, or improve the capabilities.

   
   

   Factors in Noble County, in particular, that are examples of the concept stated above include significant challenges in attracting residents with leadership abilities and business availability to fill elected official roles in the villages and townships; difficulty in obtaining or raising the financial resources to implement improvements in infrastructure and amenities necessary to successfully develop areas remote to the municipal areas; and the prevailing local desire to maintain and protect a quieter and less urbanized environment in which to raise their families and spend their lives.

   To summarize, all municipalities and townships are covered commercially by the Ohio Basic Building Code and the International Fire Codes. There are no residential construction codes except for plumbing and septic permits that are issued by the Noble County Health Department. There is no contractor registration in Noble County.

   The NFIP requires that participating communities develop and maintain floodplain regulations, and appoint a floodplain manager. Participating NFIP communities are eligible to purchase flood insurance through FEMA. The following table shows which jurisdictions participate in the NFIP and lists their designated floodplain manager. Floodplain regulations determine if and how construction can occur in a designated floodplain, and what mitigation measures must be engaged in order to build in a flood-vulnerable location. Generally speaking, any financial assistance or incentive program, and any mortgage on the property, requires a property in a floodplain to carry federally-supported flood insurance through FEMA.

   Table 2-18: Noble County Floodplain Managers

   Jurisdiction	Floodplain Manager
   Noble County	Erica Rossiter
   Village of Batesville	Erica Rossiter
   Village of Belle Valley	Erica Rossiter
   Village of Caldwell	Erica Rossiter
   Village of Dexter City	Erica Rossiter
   Village of Sarahsville	Erica Rossiter
   Village of Summerfield	Erica Rossiter

   Batesville and Summerfield do not belong to NFIP because they do not have designated floodplain areas. Batesville is under sanction since January 6, 2012.

   Jurisdictional Capability for Mitigation

   The capability to implement mitigation strategies and to manage mitigation projects is low across the county. Noble County and Caldwell have some capacity to apply for funding, conduct a project, and oversee the administration of funding. The other villages have entirely volunteer leadership and all having a population of less than 400 residents, there is no available staff or budget to commit. Caldwell has several employees, including a village administrator, who could potentially assist if the funding were available for local match. It is most likely that the only match they could provide would be in-kind match, but not cash match. The same situation would be likely for Noble County.

   Townships would have to work through Noble County for any mitigation project. They are all led by entirely volunteer elected officials, including three trustees and one fiscal clerk. These individuals all work jobs outside their volunteer commitment to their township, and it would be highly unlikely that any of them would be able to help administer a mitigation project. Noble County would be called upon to provide that support.

   
   

   Noble County has an EMA Director, and an EMA Specialist who would likely be called upon to help coordinate any mitigation project. The county engineer as well as the administrator would need to assist, especially with technical components of a project. Should the funding be adequate, Noble County could contract with third-party providers for grant applications, administration, project design and oversight, and project management.

   Table 2-19: Jurisdictional Capabilities

   Jurisdiction	Planning Commission	Comprehensive Plan	Commercial Building Codes	Zoning Ordinances	Floodplain Regulations	Capital Budget Mitigation	Capital Budget PW Mitigation
   Noble County	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Village of Batesville	County	County	Yes	No	No	No	In-Kind
   Village of Belle Valley	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Village of Caldwell	County	County	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	In-Kind

   
   

   Village of Dexter City	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Village of Sarahsville	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Village of Summerfield	County	County	Yes	No	No	No	In-Kind
   Beaver Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Brookfield Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Buffalo Township	County	County	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Center Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Elk Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Enoch Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Jackson Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Jefferson Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Marion Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Noble Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Olive Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Seneca Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Sharon Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Stock Township	County	County	Yes	No	Yes	No	In-Kind
   Wayne Township	County	County	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	In-Kind

10. Economy and Business

    There are far more service-providing businesses in Noble County than goods-producing businesses, although the average weekly wage for workers in the service industry is half or less than half of that for goods-producing employees.

    Goods-producing business includes natural resources and mining, construction, and manufacturing. Construction has the most companies (149) according to the Ohio County Profile, but the manufacturing section has far more employees, whereby nine businesses employ an average of 221 people. Construction employs about 118 people. Wages for manufacturing works are 20% higher than construction workers. In contrast, the 15 natural resources and mining employers have fewer employees (136 than manufacturing but more than construction, and those employees make about 25-40% more than those two groups. The goods-producing sector employs just under five hundred people, or about 32% of the workforce who earn about 64% of the local wages.

    
    

    The service industry is categorized into trade, transportation and utilities; information; financial services; professional and business services; education and health services; leisure and hospital; and other. While this group employs approximately 75% of the local workforce, it accounts for 36% of the gross wages. Individual wages in the service sector are about 56% of what they are in goods-producing jobs. There are 169 service-based businesses who employ 1,457 people.

    According to the Ohio County Profile (2024) for Noble County, there were both job increases and decreases across the various job categories. Generally speaking, the private sector showed growth in natural resources and mining, information services and leisure and hospitality. In all other areas, employment fell. In government jobs, both federal and state jobs fell, but local jobs increased. Goods-producing jobs were on the rise, with natural resources and mining jobs

    leading the charge alone. Service-oriented jobs also fell, but information management and information services grew.

    
    

    Table 2-20: Total Employment Statistics*

    	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
    Civilian Labor Force	4,584	4,583	4,292	4,636	4,763
    Employed	4,359	4,307	4,605	4,187	4,431
    Unemployed	225	276	313	449	332
    Unemployment                                                                  Rate	4.9%	6.0%	6.8%	9.7%	7.0%

    *2024 Ohio County Profile for Noble County used for data

    
    

    Tables 2-21 and 2-22 list the major employers and industries in Noble County according to the Noble County Ohio Census Profile 2024.

    
    

    Table 2-21: Major Employers

    Employer	Sector
    B & N Coal	Mining
    Caldwell Exempted Village Schools	Government
    International Converter Inc.	Manufacturing
    Magnum Magnetics	Manufacturing
    Noble County Government	Government
    Noble Local Schools	Government
    State of Ohio	Government
    Altercare of Summit Acres	Service Industry
    Warren Drilling Company	Mining

    Table 2-22: Employment by Industry

    Employment Sector	Average Employment 2024	Change Since 2017
    Local Government	541	+11.3%
    Trade, Transportation and Utilities	524	+5.4%
    State Government	469	-0.6%
    Education and Health Services	285	-17.4%
    Professional and Business Services	271	+3.8%
    Leisure and Hospitality	228	+4.3%
    Manufacturing	221	-10.0%
    Natural Resources and Mining	136	+49.5%
    Construction	118	-11.3%
    Financial Services	73	-31.1%%
    Other services	58	-12.1%
    Information	18	+50.0%
    Federal Government	18	-18.2%

    Agriculture

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture defines prime farmland as “land best suited to grow, feed, forage, fiber, and oilseed crops.” This type of land produces the highest crop yields with the least amount of energy and economic resources. According to this definition, very little of the acreage in Noble County is prime farmland, making agriculture a small economic contributor.

    The Ohio Department of Development shows Noble County has 596 farms with an average acreage of 165 acres. The major crops grown include grains (corn, soybeans, wheat), fruits, nuts and tree nuts, and forage crops like hay. There are single producers of vegetables and nursery products. There are also cattle and calves, milk from cows, hogs and pigs, sheep, goats, wool, mohair, milk from sheep, horses, ponies, mules, burros, donkeys, and other animals and animal products. Thirty-one percent of farm sales are from crops and 69% from livestock and livestock products. The top crops in acreage are forage, corn, soybeans, and wheat.

    
    

    Agriculture is a modest employer in Noble County. Of the 596 farms, 98 are considered family farms. Only eleven farms hire outside help. Of 1,012 producers, 682 are male and 330 are female. The majority, 576 are between the ages of 35 and 64 while the next largest group consists of 337 farmers who are 65 years old or older. Sixty-nine farms have internet access. No farm is considered an organic producer, and only seven sell directly to consumers.

    Table 2-23: Farm Production Data

    Crops	Acres	Livestock	Head
    Land Area		Broilers & Turkeys	858
    Land in Farms	98,064	Cattle and Calves	19,570
    Cropland	31,557	Hogs & Pigs	234
    Other	10,520	Sheep & Goats	3,037
    Pastureland	29,384	Layers & Pullets	2,536
    Woodland	26,603	Horses & ponies	675
    Gross Receipts	$14,536,000	Gross Receipts	$9,963,000

    
    

11. Community Growth and Development Trends

Community growth and development are extremely difficult for counties as small as Noble County. Since 2010, their population has been on a downward trajectory, and attracting younger people with families to small rural counties is difficult across the entire state. Larger cities provide so many varied opportunities, and also can ensure the support services that are needed by families and individuals, including healthcare, education, entertainment, and cultural opportunities.

Noble County has created several documents that outline their goals and desires for the future. They are well aware of the difficulty in their quest, and appear to have thought out those amenities and staples that will make Noble County a viable and successful community.

The transportation plan lays out a variety of logistical plans and opportunities. They considered both personal and business needs for transportation services, either moving grey goods in for production or supplies for workers to have what they need to work. They also looked at personal transportation, service providers for transporting things people order or for transferring people from one place to another. These are all challenges faced by a small

community when statewide culture is to “Just call an Uber” for social events or lunch. Services in cities like meal delivery and convenient shipping posts were examined. All of this was done to try to improve local options at convenient services to make life pleasant and fulfilling for new or existing residents.

Trends in employment include decreases in some sectors and increases in others. Mining jobs are on the increase, as are information management jobs. The need for dependable, high-speed internet is critical for these workers, many of whom may work from home instead of an office building. Robust technology options open the door for young workers to enjoy the peace and quiet of a small community while doing work that brings in high wages and a lifestyle desired by many people today. Noble County is trying to take advantage of this pairing.

Manufacturing struggles in Noble County. Transportation costs are high today, and no matter what the good are that are produced, they must be transported to customers. With a population of only slightly more than 14, 000, a manufacturer cannot survive selling only to local residents. Transportation costs can be the difference between profit and loss.

Healthcare needs are increasing, but Noble County does not have a hospital and it is not likely they will. Making the county a pleasant and attractive place to live while working in Cambridge or Athens is one way to deal with this reality. Close to training facilities and colleges, the county works to expand housing and maintain a robust community to attract young workers.

Schools and tax-based institutions, like in every other community in Ohio, are struggling. Noble County is working hard to maintain high quality public education in its school districts. They are working to keep schools safe for students and staff, and to help parents feel their children are safe when in the care of local schools. Their hope is that safe schools will bring families to Noble County as city schools experience a world of frightening and harmful incidents.

The cost of new housing, as well as the cost of renovation of existing housing is a concern for community development officials. They cite an adequate housing shortage as a significant barrier to economic growth. Costs of construction that have raised significantly have caused the overall maintenance of existing homes to fall, and housing for new employees is limited.

Table 2-24: Residential Construction Permits

Economic Development

Community growth and development in Noble County is the outcome of multiple organizations and jurisdictions working together to meet community needs and improve the local business environment and economy. Sometimes the communication is formal, and other times it is informal, but the various levels of government engage in active collaboration to improve and

grow the county’s economy.

New Business Development or Expansion Process

As described earlier, there are limited development regulations and standards in Noble County. Only those commercial building codes that are required by the State of Ohio are in place for commercial development. Otherwise, development and growth are a collaborative effort assembled to meet the needs of the specific project, and involving some or all of the officials listed in Tables 2-16, 2-17, 2-18, and 2-25.

Table 2-25: Noble County Growth & Development Organization Leadership

The Noble County Community Improvement Corporation serves as a central point for information about business opportunities in Noble County. They work with the OSU Cooperative Extension office, the Chamber of Commerce, and the Buckeye Hills Regional Council to recruit, attract, and develop new and expanding business.

New or renovating construction projects are facilitated by local officials who work in various regulatory roles. Regional planning, commercial building inspection, floodplain managers, zoning inspectors, and others help with physical locations as they are built or improved to meet business needs. Many of these regulations are administered by the Regional Planning office or the jurisdiction where the construction occurs.

The Chamber of Commerce and the OSU Extension Office work to connect business owners to the services they need, from financial support and insurance to suppliers and employees, they attempt to assist with identification of sources and development of the needed commodity.

These organizations can set up mentorships, training and education of a workforce, or support services for families moving into the area as new employees.

Once a project is past the initial stages, Buckeye Hills Regional Council can assist with transportation and logistical needs. The Coordinated Transportation Plan for Noble County 2025-2029 is a helpful document that provides extensive logistical information for new and existing businesses. The Noble County Economic Development Strategic Plan provides a wealth of information for a new or expanding business, and can help them do business in Noble County.

Development Summary

While there is a great deal of shared responsibility for various regulations and standards within Noble County officials, and with officials from municipalities and townships, there are areas where the collaboration can be vague and elusive. In some cases, the role of multiple agencies is appropriate and consistent with statutory assignments, the connections between those parties that ensures all perspectives are considered is undefined.

As one of Ohio’s smallest counties, Noble County professionals are all well acquainted with one another, and tend to do business across disciplines casually and comfortably. While the business culture of working together exists and thrives, the formal structure to support one another is not complete. There is little regulation that requires one party to sign off on the plans of another, and it is easy in such an environment to miss an opportunity or skip a step.

The EMA Director is the floodplain manager, and as such has a say in many development projects. Because the county is small, she serves as floodplain manager for all but one jurisdiction that has floodplain regulations. Her EMA specialist serves as the LEPC Coordinator, so any business entering Noble County with hazardous materials in their process would cross paths with the EMA. However, there is no formal step for other businesses to connect with the EMA during the development and building process, at least formally.

The connection between the Economic Development Corporation and the individual municipalities is not well defined, but they appear to all work together very well. One negative factor is that the small villages have little capacity to attend daytime meetings for development considerations. Since all but two townships are not zoned, there is a gap in connecting townships to county regional planning. A more formalized process of ensuring the involvement of the small communities, or using the EMA to represent their interest in flood prevention and resiliency, could help with this potential gap.

The EMA director communicates with the village and county officials. Collaboration with other elected and appointed officials happens too, although casually. A more formalized method of ensuring emergency management is at the development and regulation table would serve the community as a double-check for disaster vulnerability reduction and elimination. It would cause discussions to occur that will not occur without emergency management at the table,

although most other parties are already there. The EMA director’s input can be synergistic, and

can initiate discussions that are productive and prudent.

See Section 3.0 Mitigation Strategies for more information about this.

1. HAZARD IDENTIFICATION

   Noble County has experienced many disasters in its history, ranging from floods and tornadoes to blizzards and windstorms. In this section, the hazards that can impact the county are defined and the risk for each hazard is assessed. As part of this process, the Hazard Mitigation Planning Team analyzed the hazards and risks present throughout the county. Twelve hazards were identified as relevant to Noble County, as listed below.

   
   

   • Complex Coordinated Incident

   • Dam Failure

   • Drought/extreme heat

   • Earthquake

   • Fire and Wildfire

   • Flood

   • Hazardous materials

   • Land subsidence and erosion

   • Severe Storms

   • Tornado and windstorm

   • Utility Failure

   • Winter Storm

   
   

   Some hazards were excluded from this plan because they pose no risk to Noble County. The excluded hazards and the justification for the exclusion are identified in the table below.

   Justification for the exclusions was discussed. Tsunami and volcano do not exist in Noble County, and therefore were excluded. Coastal erosion is not relevant, nor is avalanche. They considered all hazards from the perspective of possibility, probability and magnitude. They also considered damages and recovery from an incident that was moderately severe.

   
   

   Table 2-26: Excluded Hazards

   Excluded Hazard	Justification
   Coastal Erosion	The county has no open coastline.
   Tsunami	Geographically impossible
   Volcano	Geographically impossible
   Avalanche	Insufficient mountainous area
   Invasive Species	Not sufficient history or damages
   Coastal Flooding	No coastline present in the county

   Noble County does not have a long history of federal disaster declarations or assistance. The county has been included in thirteen federal declarations. A comprehensive list of federal disaster declarations for Noble County is provided in Table 2-27.

   Climate change was not listed as a specific hazard, but changing weather patterns and characteristics were incorporated into the discussions about all hazards, and are applied as it relates to Noble County throughout this plan. Participants discussed how storms have changed, and how impacts are different than they used to be, even five years ago. One of their greatest concerns is the drought and lack of rain in the summer and fall in the past two years. While spring and early summer have had ample rain, temperatures have warmed slowly. In mid-summer, rain seemed to stop. This pattern is not typical of Noble County and the surrounding area. They also remarked about light winters of late with less snow, warmer temperatures and less incidence of severe winter storms.

   Strategies were considered in the context of how these kinds of changing weather patterns and presentations would affect the incidence, circumstances, and outcomes of a particular impact. For example, as rain falls faster and more intensely, flooding is more likely to include surface runoff, flash flooding, and surface flooding. Consideration for how increased rainfall, and resulting increased runoff, would affect Noble County was noted. The effects of hard, pounding rain and pooling on surfaces causes additional rapid surface drainage which worsens surface stress and topsoil erosion. All of these kinds of effects were considered in the context of what is happening now, and the plan has been modified to include those changes. Therefore, climate change in an implied part of every hazard, and will be continually assessed as this plan is implemented and later updated.

   
   

   In developing this assessment, the Noble County Hazard Mitigation Planning Team analyzed the hazards and risks present throughout the county. Because of the impact on residents, they discussed all hazards, not just natural hazards. Since declarations began, Noble County has been part of eighteen declarations.

   
   

   The most frequent declaration cause for Noble County is flooding with eleven incidents severe enough to cause a federal declaration. Severe Storms, specifically thunderstorms, is second, followed less frequently by mudslides and landslides, and then severe winter storms. Heavy rain and tornadoes are not common, at least not to the point where they cause the issuance of a declaration. As was the rest of Ohio, Noble County was included in 2020 pandemic declarations, and as part of the Hurricane Katrina shelter operations declaration in 2005.

   
   

   Table 2-27: Federal Disaster Declaration History

   DR/EM Number	Incident Date	Incident Type(s)
   DR-90-OH	January 23, 1959	Flooding
   DR 167 OH	March 24, 1964	Severe Storms and Flooding
   DR 243 OH	June 5, 1968	Heavy Rains, Flooding
   EM-3055-OH	January 26, 1978	Severe blizzard
   DR 630 OH	August 23, 1980	Severe Storms, Flooding
   DR-1227-OH	June 24, 1998	Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes
   DR 1453 OH	February 14, 2003	Severe Winter Storm
   DR 1507 OH	January 3, 2004	Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides and Landslides
   DR 1519 OH	May 18, 2004	Severe Storms and Flooding
   DR 1556 OH	August 27, 2004	Severe Storms and Flooding
   DR-1580-OH	December 22, 2004	Severe winter storms, flooding, mudslides
   EM-3250-OH	September 13, 2005	Hurricane Katrina Emergency Shelter Ops
   DR 4002 OH	April 4, 2011	Severe Storms and Flooding
   DR 4360 OH	February 14, 2018	Severe Storms, Landslides and Mudslides
   DR 4424	February 13, 2019	Storms, Flooding and Landslides
   EM-3457 OH	March 13, 2020	COVID 19 Pandemic
   DR-4507-OH	March 31, 2020	COVID-19 Pandemic
   DR 4077 OH	March 14, 2024	Ohio Tornadoes

   Future Hazards

   The residents and officials in Noble County expressed slight concerns about future hazards, but did not express the desire to identify preventive actions to impede any development that might occur. They indicated that the development of additional hydraulic fracturing could pose dangers to the geological structures in the county, as well as increase the incidence of brine and chemical spills, wear and tear to roads and bridges, and explosions. Loss of natural resources, especially threats to the raw water supply, were expressed. They cited the amount of truck traffic that would be needed to transport products and materials as a hazard. They also felt that additional oil and gas drilling could increase the threat of some similar issues. Both could result in residential displacement from homes. They cited development of data centers as a difficult community development situation, but did not feel incredibly threatened by this. The demands placed on electricity supplies and water treatment and supplies is an issue with data centers.

   
   

   Invasive species was not considered a hazard overall, but there were a few comments about some specific species that need to be monitored, and action should be taken if these species are detected in Noble County. Traffic on I-77 and the demands vehicle accidents and stranded motorists place on local responders was mentioned. Both of these hazards could easily become more of a problem in the future and would need to be reconsidered for inclusion in the plan.

   To understand the risk posed by natural hazards in Noble County, it is important to examine the characteristics of each hazard and evaluate local occurrences. Historical information was

   obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and supplemented with information from local officials. This section defines each hazard and describes Noble County’s history with each.

   
   

   1. Climate and Weather

      To meet the requirements of mitigation planning and make the topic relevant and applicable to the local community, the potential effects of climate change are discussed in each of the hazards to which it applies. The Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation website information was researched, and the reactions are appropriate to that data and other data that was anecdotally included by participants.

      How storms occur and the impact on the community is changing. Stakeholders reported various differences in thunderstorms, windstorms, and precipitation in general. Most participants felt that rain falls in more intense storms now and with greater amounts at one time, rather than gentle rains that came frequently in past years. In general, stakeholders felt that winters are less harsh, not as cold, and have less snowfall. They see very recent change in drought, claiming that rain is heavier when it falls, and then there are periods between rainfall that last longer than they used to. At the time of meetings, the county was experiencing an extremely dry period which continued to last through the last stages of mitigation planning efforts. Last fall, 2024, was an anomaly because it was incredibly dry from mid-summer through fall. Precipitation ended up below normal, and many crop yields were low due to the lack of precipitation at critical times in plant and fruit development.

      Data suggests that there is also a change in temperatures, although local stakeholders did not feel this change is remarkable in Noble County. They did report that cool weather lasts longer into May now than it used to, and that the warm-up to summer-like temperatures often does not happen until June. There are still cool spells in June, but there are warmer days in between the cooler ones, whereas May is generally consistently cooler than in the past. They remarked that falls seem to be warmer, and the warm weather commonly stretches into November.

      Noble County stakeholders felt that climate change will have less of an effect locally than in more metropolitan areas. Located in the midst of southeast Ohio where there are no major cities close by, and only a few carbon-dissipating industries with modest operations, they feel climate change will impact them in a slower and less profound manner than metropolitan areas closer to Columbus and other major cities. With a total county population lower than many small cities, the county’s contributions to pollution and environmental causative activities are far less than in a Franklin or Licking County. Therefore, climate change was considered a less imminent threat than in many other counties. While it does affect the various meteorological events, the change is not profound. The only factor that brought great concern was the last two years of drought and dry spells.

      
      

      Data is according to the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) website. This tool is consistent with the USGS and NOAA datasets. Projections can be expressed in tracts similar to the Economic Justice Screening Tool and Building Code Adoption Tracking, but the following table is a countywide projection.

      
      

      In general, this tool indicates that ambient temperatures are rising, and higher emissions cause a greater increase. Days between rains might increase, and the consecutive dry days will likely increase. Total rainfall will change minimally, but storms may result in more rainfall. These projections are consistent with stakeholder conversations. Higher emissions will cause more dramatic results, and this can be from vehicles or other industrial or commercial sources. The following table illustrates the climate projections according to the CMRA resource over the next seventy-five years, and lists both high and low emission projections.

      
      

      Table 2-28: Climate Projections per CMRA – Noble County OH

      Category of Climate Condition	1976- 2005 Low	2015- 2044 Low	2015- 2044 High	2035- 2064 Low	2035- 2064 High	2070- 2099 Low	2070- 2099 High
      EXTREME HEAT
      Annual Days max temperature > 90	10.3	27.5	30.5	38.7	48.9	50.3	85.7
      Annual days with max temperature >95	1.0	6.5	8.1	11.9	17.5	18.6	46.9
      Annual day max temp >100	0.1	1.0	1.5	2.9	4.9	5.6	19.9
      Annual single highest max temp. >105	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.1	1.0	7.9
      Annual single highest temperature	94.5	98.0	98.5	99.7	101.3	101.3	106.6
      Annual highest max. temp avg. over 5 days	90.3	93.6	94.1	95.3	96.9	97.1	102.1
      Cooling degree days	769.1	1,113.7	1,163.3	1,311.7	1,418.4	1,508.4	2,194.1

      
      

      DROUGHT
      Average annual total precipitation	39.5	41.1	41.4	41.6	42.0	41.8	43.5
      Days/year with precipitation	201.6	199.1	199.3	198.4	197.8	197.7	194.9
      Day/year with no precipitation	163.5	166.0	165.8	166.7	167.3	167.4	170.2
      Max # consecutive dry days	11.0	11.4	11.5	11.5	11.8	12.0	12.7
      Annual day max. temp. >90	10.3	27.5	30.5	38.7	48.9	50.3	85.7
      Annual days max. temp >100	0.1	1.0	1.5	2.9	4.9	5.6	19.9
      WILDFIRE
      Days/year no precipitation	163.5	166.0	165.8	166.7	167.3	167.4	170.2
      Max. # consecutive dry days	11.0	11.4	11.5	11.5	11.8	12.0	12.7
      Days/year with precipitation	201.6	199.1	199.3	198.4	197.8	197.7	194.9
      Annual days max temp >90	10.3	27.5	30.5	38.7	48.9	50.3	85.7
      Annual days max temp >100	0.1	1.0	1.5	2.9	4.9	5.6	19.9
      FLOODING
      Average total precipitation	39.5	41.1	41.4	41.6	42.0	41.8	43.5
      Days per year with precipitation	201.6	199.4	199.3	198.4	197.8	197.7	194.9
      Max number of consecutive wet days	12.9	12.9	13.1	13.0	13.1	13.0	13.3
      Annual days with precipitation >1 inch	2.7	3.2	3.2	3.4	3.6	3.5	4.5
      Annual days with precipitation >2 inches	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3
      Annual days with precipitation >3 inches	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
      Annual days > 99th percentile precipitation	4.4	5.3	5.4	5.6	6.0	5.8	7.4
      Days with max temp <32	24.6	18.5	18.0	16.1	14.3	13.8	7.7

   2. Complex Coordinated Event

      A complex coordinated event is simply stated as a planned, aggressive criminal event involving damage to property and/or people. These events can involve shootings, bombings, arson, or other actions considered terrorism, and very frequently result in the loss of human life. Other incidents destroy property, inventory, finances, or other assets. These incidents are generally linked to a cause, or a specific purpose that has ignited a desire for retribution and attack on the part of the aggressor(s). There may be a specific social cause associated with the attack.

      The target of these attacks can be institutions, such as public or private schools, churches, or hospitals as well as individual businesses or general public areas where large groups of people gather.

      Various forms of terrorism are used.

      • Cyberterrorism involves the use of technology – computers, software, hardware, and other programs – to steal or hold hostage critical and confidential information or finances. This is done through ransomware, computer viruses and malware, and through agents that prey on vulnerable individuals and businesses or institutions. These attacks can involve ransom payments to recover information, loss of financial assets, and/or extreme costs in restoring systems to functional status.

      • Agroterrorism uses agricultural products and processes to contaminate food supplies or food-producing operations, or to introduce disease and pestilence into farm operations,

        thereby destroying confidence in the food supply and costing farmers and food distributions extreme amounts of money.

      • Biological Terrorism involves the intentional spread of disease through the release of viruses, bacteria or toxins to an unsuspecting set of people or animals.

      • Chemical Terrorism involves the release of harmful chemicals like nerve agents, choking agent, blood agents, or blister agents that prevent normal bodily functions to work and the interference results in death through respiratory or cardiac failure.

      • Active Aggressors are attackers who use knives, guns, bombs, and other weapons to hurt and kill people. They sometimes combine fire and chemical agents with their attack, using tear gas or incendiary devices to worsen the situation and make response more difficult.

        These events normally occur where large numbers of people or extensive property can be destroyed. Public schools, shopping areas, and churches are among the most frequent sites for these attacks. Sometimes interstate highways are used for sniper sites, especially when the social cause related to the incident is somehow present on the highway, or the beneficiaries of the transportation route are the target of the attack.

        There are no recorded incidents of this type in Noble County, but frequency and severity do not impact the possibility of the event. One can say that Noble County is less vulnerable to this kind of event because the perpetrator(s) generally want to see very large numbers of people harmed, and the county does not have a large population. However, the population in various locations may be sufficient to serve the needs of an aggressor, or the county may simply be perceived as unable to detect and interrupt the attack, even if discovered. Rural counties are sometimes perceived as having little ability to investigate, prosecute and convict the criminals that carry out these incidents. While stakeholders felt the vulnerability was low, it is sufficient to cause concern and the desire to prevent the incidents in the first place.

   3. Dam/Levee Failure

      A dam is an artificial barrier built across flowing water. This barrier directs or slows the flow of water and often creates a lake or reservoir. A dam is considered hydrologically significant if it has a height of at least 25 feet from the natural streambed and a storage capacity of at least fifteen acre-feet or an impounding capacity of at least 50 acre-feet and is six feet or more above the natural streambed. Dams are constructed for flood control purposes or to store water for irrigation, water supply, or energy generation. Dams can also be created for recreational purposes. They can be composed of earth, rock, concrete, masonry, timber, or a combination of materials. Dams are classified by USACE and ODNR according to an assessment of hazard potential, specifically low, significant or high hazard. Low hazard dams that fail would likely cause no loss of life, few economic or environmental losses, and damage would likely be confined to the owner’s property. Significant hazard dams may cause economic or environmental damage, disruption of lifeline facilities, or impact other entities. High-hazard dams, upon failure, are expected to cause a loss of human life, in addition to economic and environmental damage, and disruption to lifeline services. USACE ratings and information is utilized for mitigation planning in lieu of the ODNR classifications.

      Levees are embankments constructed to prevent the overflow of a river and subsequent flooding of the surrounding land. They can be built using earth, rock, or other materials. Levees constructed from concrete or masonry materials are referred to as floodwalls.

      A failure of these structures is defined as the uncontrolled release of the water held back by the dam in a lake or reservoir. The majority of dams have a small enough storage volume that a breach or failure will have limited impact on the surrounding community, and many are classified as low-hazard dams. A large number of dams are classified as significant hazard, and some are considered high-hazard. Failure of a large, high hazard dam can cause substantial flooding downstream and lead to significant loss of life and property.

      
      

      There are many causes of dam failure, including:

      • Sub-standard construction

      • Geological instability

      • Spillway design error

      • Poor maintenance

        
        

        • Internal erosion

        • Extreme inflow

        • Earthquake

        Should the amount of rain that falls, or ice melt after significant winters, increase, dams could be at increased risk of failure. Holding back an increased amount of water, especially when upstream melting or drainage is taking place, puts more stress on the structure and increases the chances of failure. Over-topping of the structure could occur under conditions of long-lasting heavy precipitation with saturated soils and waterways already full of draining water. Repeated additional stress through ongoing waves of heavy rainfall places extra wear and tear on structures, and could potentially decrease the lifespan of a structure, or require additional maintenance and repairs. Earthen dams could deteriorate faster due to the erosive nature of gravitational drainage. The engineering requirements for dams that hold water back within a waterway could increase as stress on those structures. This hazard could be impacted by upstream communities.

        
        

        Extreme drought could negatively impact a wastewater lagoon through excessive evaporation and causing natural imbalances and chemical changes. More evaporation would be reasonable to expect, further depleting the water content. Algal bloom is more robust in hot weather, and the presence of phosphates and other contaminants could cause treatment problems.

        
        

        The National Inventory of Dams (NID) identifies the dams across the United States. The NID Data Dictionary (2021) defines critical verbiage associated with that resource. Each dam has an identification number and name. The owner, dam condition, and filing of an Emergency Action Plan (EAP) is described. Other information utilized include the dam classification (high-hazard, significant hazard, etc.) and the inspection date and condition of the dam. The dam is described in the context of size and capacity, and the river or stream that feeds the structure is identified. The nearest municipality is identified. While significant detail about the dam is included on this site, for the purpose of this mitigation plan, the basic information is used.

        Dams are classified by the potential magnitude of a breach. “High Hazard” indicates that failure

        of that particular structure would probably cause the loss of human life. This is determined by

        the presence of homes and highly inhabited facilities within the inundation zone. Economic, environmental, and lifeline losses are probable as well, although the loss of human life probability is the only required indicator for high-hazard classification. “Significant hazard” indicates that the loss of life is not anticipated, but there would be measurable economic, environmental, and lifeline losses should a breach occur. “Low” hazard indicates the losses would likely be limited to those on the property of the dam owner.

        The National Levee Database identifies the same information for levees in all states. There are no levees in Noble County.

        Table 2-29: High Hazard Dams in Noble County OH

        Structure	Owner	Primary Purpose
        Caldwell Lake Dam		Village of Caldwell	Flood Risk Reduction
        Cline Lake Dam		Dr. Richard Cline	Recreational
        Wolf Run Lake Dam		ODNR, Division of Parks & Watercraft	Flood Risk Reduction

        Map 2-6: High Hazard Dams in Noble County

        Table 2-30: ODNR Listed Dams in Noble County OH

        Name	Owner	Class (ONDR)	Length	Height	Pool Area (Acres)	Volume (ac-ft)
        Wolf Run Lake Dam	Ohio Department of Natural Resources	I	700	76	214	7737.0
        Caldwell Lake Dam	Village of Caldwell	I	550	74.5	49.9	3165.0
        Cline Lake Dam	Dr. Richard Cline	I	450	47	8.3	191.9
        Ohio Power Company Pond NB-90 Dam	American Electric Power	II	605	50.8	5.5	1114.0
        Ohio Power Company Pond NB-43 Dam	American Electric Power	II	800	59.8	13.1	1979.2
        Mathews Pond Dam	Gene Mathews	II	300	58.1	2	41.0
        Buffalo Hills Lake Dam	Buffalo Hills Properties LTD	II	387	15.4	2.5	18.7
        Darty Stowe Lake Dam	State Convention of Baptists in Ohio	II	450	37.5	4.7	78.1
        Ohio Power Company Pond NB-64 Dam	American Electric Power	III	400	38	2.6	115.0
        Eastern AG Research Station Dam	Eastern AG Research Station – Ohio State University	III	360	52	4.1	44.7
        Shafer Lake Dam	JoAnn Steed et al	III	330	33	2.3	30.0
        Traska FWI Dam	Antero Resources	III	1650	27	2.8/	62.0

        
        

        Note that the previous HMP for Noble County listed Ohio Power Company Pond MM-62 Dam as a Noble County structure. Since that time, it has been determined that this dam is not located in Noble County, and is not listed by ODNR or NID/USACE as a Noble County dam.

        Class II and III ODNR-listed dams, or commensurately “significant” or “low” hazard dams listed by they United States Army Corps of Engineers, are not individually described in the hazard mitigation plan. These dams are not anticipated to result in the loss of human life if failure occurs. Instead, they are expected to damage property, interrupt services and utilities, or provide difficulties in the use of local infrastructure. While those circumstances are inconvenient, the degree and duration of interruption is not generally extensive enough to warrant mitigation efforts or financial assistance. Current mitigation guidance does not call for the specific description of these structures. However, the strategies established for high-hazard dams can be used to benefit lower classified dams, or to benefit responders in working with those dam owners to plan for response capacity.

        
        

        Noble County Dam Failure or Non-Failure Incidents

        There have been no dam failure incidents in Noble County. However, there have been non-failure incidents.

        
        

        Cline Lake Dam replaced a drainage pipe in 2016. As described by the owner in that sub-section of this plan. There was a separated joint in the downstream end of the spillway pipe and it was replaced. There were no consequences from this incident. This was listed by the Association of State Dam Safety Officials on their website as a non-emergent incident.

        Caldwell Lake Dam

        This dam was constructed in 1969 by the Village of Caldwell for flood risk reduction and water supply. It is located on the southwestern end of Caldwell Lake where Dog Run exits the lake. The dam is part of the West Fork Duck Creek Watershed. According to the National Inventory of Dams, it is considered in fair condition and was last inspected by ODNR on May 14, 2025.

        The condition assessment was done on November 24, 2020.

        
        

        Caldwell Lake Dam is owned by the Village of Caldwell, and they maintain not only the dam, but also the administrative documents such as the Emergency Action Plan. The dam is inspected by ODNR and falls under the regulatory arm of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The dam was designed by the United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, and they assisted the village in preparing the Emergency Action Plan. It is on-stream of Dog Creek, and holds water back for flood risk reduction and water supply

        purposes. The nearest “city” is listed as Florence, an unincorporated community northwest of

        Caldwell. The plan lists the distance to Florence as 1.2 miles.

        This dam is 75 feet high and 550 feet long. It holds 210,355 cubic yards of water with a maximum storage of 3,165 acre-feet of water. The drainage area is 4.68 square miles in size, and the pond of water covers 49.9 acres. Its reported “normal storage” is 775 acre-feet of water.

        
        

        
        

        Caldwell Lake Dam photograph taken by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

        
        

        The inundation zone for this dam includes State Route 821 which is also known as Marietta Road; State Route 285 also known as Sarahsville Road, and Reservoir Road. A large portion of Reservoir Road, especially at County Road 127, and State Route 821 would be covered by water

        in a dam failure situation. It is anticipated that these roads would be flooded for at least one mile or more. Several other local roads, including Noble Ridge Road and Glen Slay Road could be affected. Interstate 77 is very close to SR 821 but is not listed as an effected highway, perhaps due to elevation and water retention areas. The EAP identifies State Route 821 south of Belle Valley to State Route 215, and then to County Road 127 as access to the top of the dam during an emergency.

        The plan brings attention to the fact that Reservoir Road is at significant risk of flooding during a 100-year flood event, and therefore, cascading heavy rain and dam failure would likely exacerbate the already-difficult access issues in a breach situation under any conditions but a sunny day incident. This could also affect other smaller roads and streets in the general area.

        
        

        There are 75 houses in the identified inundation zone and twelve businesses that would be damaged. One waste water treatment plant, owned by the Village of Caldwell, is the only critical facility in the inundation zone. These houses are identified as low-lying structures along Dog Run and West Fork Duck Creek.

        The EAP lists one home on Sarahsville Road as an upstream pool area landowner, and four property owners on Caldwell Lake Road and Reservoir Road as downstream area landowners. The EAP does not appear to be a completed document as some detail cells are not complete.

        There are 75 homes and 12 businesses listed in the inundation zone. There is one wastewater treatment plant and a water treatment plant listed in the inundation zone.

        The EAP identifies various levels of potential emergency, and sets forth an incident command structure that assigns roles and responsibilities to specific persons in Noble County and the Village of Caldwell. The Noble County EMA is identified as a key player in warning and notification processes as well as other protective actions like evacuation, sheltering and re-entry. It clearly calls out other hazards, including heavy rain and flooding as well as earthquake, that would cause cascading consequences, putting the residents of Noble County in extreme danger. It calls for additional assessment and modified protocols to manage these highly volatile circumstances.

        Cline Lake Dam

        This privately owned high-hazard dam lies in southwest Beaver Township between Palestine Ridge Road and Coal Ridge Road. The dam was designed by Valliant Roxby of Roxby Engineering in 2003 for the purpose of recreation at the request of the property owner. The dam crosses a tributary to Seneca Fork Willis Creek that drains into Willis Creek west of State Route 16. The creek then flows directly into Senecaville Lake.

        
        

        The dam is on the far southwest corner of Cline Lake. The dam is 47 feet high and 450 feet in length. It holds back 36,000 cubic yards of water, and has a maximum discharge of 3,468 cubic feet per second. The maximum storage is 191.9 acre-feet with a normal storage of 97.4 acre-feet of water. The lake covers 8.3 acres of land, and is 25 feet deep.

        ODNR has listed the dam in “fair” condition. ODNR has requested the owner replace a drain pipe to improve the ability to manage an over-topping situation. Currently there are two outlet pipes to handle this kind of circumstance. One drain pipe was replaced by the owner a few years ago when he observed seepage for a cost of approximately $20,000. Another drain pipe is located near the bottom of the lake with a capacity to drain the lake down to a 1.5-acre body of water, potentially reducing the water held by about 80%. The owner continues to work with ODNR to find a bid more reasonable than the $350K quote to replace that drain pipe. Thus far the situation between the owner and ODNR has not been resolved due to cost.

        
        

        The inundation scenario involves cascading incidents of heavy rain and flooding, in addition to dam failure caused by overtopping and dam breach. At the owner’s explanation, it appears that the scenario is a what ODNR and USACE refer to as a “Probable Maximum Flood”. The PMF scenario usually assumes that the lake has been kept at a high level because there is no way to drain it, or it has not been drained to maintain a less-than-maximum capacity prior to excessive precipitation. Therefore, overtopping is highly likely. The scenario also assumes that soils are saturated and ditches are slightly full, therefore, unable to drain water quickly as they would in a sunny day scenario.

        The inundation zone for this dam includes mostly wooded area, which is nearly all owned by the dam owner. There are no homes in the inundation zone until it reaches State Route 16. At that juncture, where the unnamed tributary is nearly at Willis Creek, there is a collection of buildings. There is one house with outbuildings and three camper trailers that are at high risk.

        
        

        The house is 5,620 feet from the dam, and the camper trailers are approximately 6,000 feet away. It is anticipated that the horizontal flooding from the ditch will reach 120 to 125 feet, placing these structures under eight to twelve feet of water. There is also a sportsmen’s’ club, another house, a business, and two barns that have lesser risk in a dam breach situation. That inundation map is illustrated in Map 2-7 on page 2-40 at the end of this sub-section.

        Road barricade locations are expected to include the following:

        • Near Cline Lake Dam on Township Road #188, on Palestine Ridge Road south of State Route 513;

        • A second located 1.7 miles east of State Route 147 on County Road 16

        • A third at 1.3 miles west of State Route 513 on County Road #16.

        The Emergency Action Plan identifies various potential problems and how to identify them, as well as identifying various solutions and stop-gap actions to lessen the likelihood of total dam failure. The plan identifies roles and responsibilities of responders, and assigns them to specific individuals by name and by title. The Noble County EMA is identified as a response partner, especially involved in warning and notification, protective actions, and recovery. The notification of affected residents is primarily the responsibility of the dam owner/operator, assisted by the EMA and Noble County Sheriff. Fire departments in the immediate area are identified to assist with evacuation and rescue, as needed.

        Map 2-7: Cline Lake Dam Inundation Area

        Wolf Run Lake Dam

        Wolf Run Lake Dam is owned by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, and operated by its Division of Parks and Watercraft. It is located on the southwest end of Wolf Run Lake in Noble Township just to the east of Belle Valley. It is part of Wolf Run State Park. It was built for flood risk reduction and recreation in 1966 on Wolf Run.

        Wolf Run Lake Dam is an earthen structure designed by the Office of Chief Engineer at ODNR in 1966. The dam is 76 feet high and 700 feet long, holding 484,000 cubic yards of water. The maximum storage of the water body is 7,737 acre-feet, but normal storage is 4,137 acre-feet. The surface area of the lake is 214 acres, and the drainage area is 5.7 square miles. The maximum discharge is 19,948 cubic feet per second.

        The dam’s last condition assessment was on November 24, 2020, and it was rated in satisfactory condition. The last inspection was conducted on May 14, 2025. The facility has an Emergency Action Plan that was shared with the county.

        
        

        
        

        Photograph of Wolf Run Lake Dam taken by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

        
        

        Interstate 77 is just to the west of the dam, and the interchange at Marietta Road (State Route 821) is to the immediate southwest of the spillway. A section of Belle Valley is to the immediate south, including Main Street, Broad Street, Outpost Road, and Liberty Street. Wolf Run Road wraps around the south side of the lake, as does Reservoir Road to the south. Wolf Run exits the lake at the southwest and runs parallel to I-77 until it joins with West Fork Duck Creek near where Wolf Run Road intersects Marietta Road.

        
        

        On the west side of I-77, there is another section of Belle Valley. This includes Brown Street, West Main Street, High Street, Church Street, North Street, North Street South, Lobby’s Lane, Spruce Street, and Walnut Street. This area is residential, but not highly concentrated. Most homes appear to be single family homes.

        West Fork Duck Creek continues to flow south between I-77 and Marietta Road. The area is a residential neighborhood northwest of Caldwell, and referred to as Florence. It is wrapped between Dog Run and Reservoir Road on the north to Planning Mill Street on the south. At this point, West Fork Duck Creek turns east and separates the Florence area from the Village of Caldwell. West Fork Duck Creek wraps around the north, east and south sides of Caldwell, and then meanders back to Marietta Road and I-77. This entire area is within the inundation zone for Wolf Creek Lake Dam.

        Critical structures within the Wolf Run Lake Dam inundation zone number 1,141. There are nine bridges and several other pieces of infrastructure in the way of the water, as well as 20 other buildings that includes one school. Flooding may be as shallow as a few inches to as deep

        as twenty-three feet. The total inundation time is expected to be less than 2.5 hours. The estimations are based upon levels of flooding, as described below. The information below was taken from the sixteen screens that illustrate the inundation zone in the Wolf Run Lake Dam Emergency Action Plan developed by ODNR and shared with the Noble County EMA.

        Table 2-31: Wolf Run Lake Dam Inundation Detail

        Structures at Risk	Time Frame	Sunny Day Breach	100 Year Breach	PMF Breach
        41 Critical Structures 2 Maintenance Buildings 1 Bridge	<5 to <15 min.	4 to 15 ft.	4-15 ft.	10-22 ft.
        14 Critical Structures 4 Barns	<10 to < 15 min.	5.5 to 10.8 ft.	5.1 – 10.4 ft.	13.5 – 19 ft.
        57 Critical Structures 3 Bridges	< 15 to <20 min.	0 –to 4.6 ft.	0 – 5.2 ft.	6.3 – 13.9 ft.
        7 Critical Structures 5 Barns	<15 to <25 min.	0 to 6.4 ft.	0 – 6.3 ft.	3.1 – 13.1 ft.
        142 Critical Structures 1 Home 2 Barns I Culvert	< 25 to < 35 min.	4.5 to 7.3 ft.	0 to 7.2 ft.	4.0 to 14.5 ft.
        178 Critical Structures 2 Bridges	< 40 to <45 min.	2.2 to 11.9 Ft.	2.3 to 12.1 Ft.	22.1 to 11.3 ft.
        8 Critical Facilities 2 Non-Critical Structures 1 School 3 Bridges	< 55 min to < 1 hr.	6.3 to 13.0 ft.	6.8 to 14.0 Ft.	5.0 to 23.0 ft.
        20 Critical Structures 1 Home	< 1hr.5min to < 1 hr. 30 min.	0 to 3.0 ft.	0.00 to 4.0 ft.	2.7 to 11.0 ft.
        15 Critical Structures 1 Barn	< 1 hr. 30 min. to <1 hr. 40 min.	0.0 to 2.5 ft.	0.00 to 3.0 ft.	2.2 ft. to 12.2 ft.
        Unknown Structures	<1.hr. 45 min. to < 1 hr. 55 min.	0.3 ft.	0.8 ft.	9.2 ft.
        14 critical Structures	< 2 hr. 5 min. to <2 hr. 15 min.	0.6 ft. to 5.3 ft.	1.0 to 5.9 ft.	6.7 ft. to 13.5 ft.
        20 Critical Structures 1 Home	<2 hr. 15 min. to < 2 hr. 20 min.	2.7 ft. to 3.9 ft.	3.4 ft. to 4.6 ft.	11.8 ft. to 12.3 ft.
        40 Critical Structures	< 2 hr. 30 min.	0.00 ft. to 2.9 ft.	0.00 ft. to 3.5 ft.	2.1 ft. to 12.2 ft.
        Roads potentially affected: Wolf Run Drive; Reservoir Road; Marietta Road; Belle Valley Road; Mine Road; Caldwell Road; Interstate 77; Sarahsville Road; McConnelsville Road; Olive Street; Hunkadora Road; Keithtown Road; Pine Lake Road; Lake Weller Road; Shirley Parks Road; Charlie Poling Road; Riggs Road; Ashton Mill Road.

        
        

        Wolf Run Lake Dam is the most critical dam in Noble County should it fail; however, even though it is smaller, Caldwell Lake Dam is a large structure and the quantity of water behind it is significant. Because inundation maps were not complete for Caldwell Lake Dam, it was not clear what the outcome would be if Wolf Run Lake Dam and Caldwell Lake Dam were to fail simultaneously, and especially if it were under already-saturated circumstances. However, it is logical to assume that because both are located north of Caldwell and flow naturally into West Branch Duck Creek, that simultaneous failure would significantly compound the flooding issues,

        and increase the threat to loss of life and property. Several state roads and the interstate could easily become flooded, and the Florence neighborhood would probably bear the brunt of the initial waves of water. Downstream communities like Dudley, South Olive, Moundsville and the Village of Dexter City would likely see increased flooding. The upstream flooding into Coal Ridge would likely increase as well, but a much higher percentage of the area is woodland and not populated as densely with homes and businesses.

        Local Dam Failure History

        According to records from Association of State Dam Safety Officials website, there were no dam or levee failures of record in Noble County, or affecting the dams included in this plan that lie in the immediately adjacent parts of other counties.

        
        

        The Ohio EMA does not list any critical facilities within inundation zones for dams in Noble County. There are no estimated losses from dam failure for state owned and state leased facilities. This information is in the 2019 State of Ohio Hazard Mitigation Plan, Section 2.6, Dam Failure.

   4. Drought and Extreme Heat

      A drought is a deficiency of moisture that adversely impacts people, animals, and vegetation over an area of significant size. Because drought is a creeping phenomenon characterized by the absence of water, there is no defined beginning or end, nor is there a standard amount of time required for an extended dry period to be considered a drought. It is considered a drought when the dry period lasts long enough to impact the environment and economy of a region, typically a period of months or years.

      There are four common types of droughts as illustrated below.

      
      

      Type	Description
      Meteorological	Based on the degree of dryness (rainfall deficit) and length of dry period
      Hydrological	Based on impact of rainfall deficits on water supply such as stream flow, reservoir and lake levels and water table decline
      Agricultural	Based on impacts to agriculture by rainfall deficits, soil water deficits, reduced ground water, and reservoir levels needed for irrigation
      Socio-economic	Based on the impact of drought conditions on supply and demand of                                                  some economic goods

      
      

      Drought severity is measured using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The PDSI measures dryness based on recent precipitation and temperature statistics. Drought classifications are identified in the chart below:

      
      

      Measurement	Description
      -4 or less	Extreme Drought
      -4  to  -3	Severe        Drought

      
      

      -3 to -2	Moderate Drought
      -2 to -1	Mild Drought
      -1 to -0.5	Incipient Dry Spell
      -0.5 to 0.5	Near Normal
      0.5 to 1	Incipient Wet Spell
      1 to 2	Slightly Wet
      2 to 3	Moderately Wet
      3 to 4	Very Wet
      4 or more	Extremely Wet

      
      

      A heat wave is a period of abnormally hot and unusually humid weather, typically lasting for two or more days. This can be an extended period of time with higher-than-normal temperatures or a shorter period of time with abnormally high temperatures. Regardless of the length of time or exact temperatures, heat waves are a safety hazard to anyone exposed to the high heat. People are at risk for heat exhaustion and heat stroke, which can be fatal in the most serious cases. When heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions, the potential for a serious natural disaster rises. Between injuries, fatalities, and crop/property damage, these disasters can significantly impact the economy of a region.

      Heat waves can occur in Noble County and but the incidence is rare and the duration typically short. Extreme temperatures are considered anything above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. In the humid climate of southeast Ohio, these temperatures are often accompanied by high humidity. Temperatures rarely exceed the mid-90s, although the region does occasionally experience higher temperatures. These brief heat waves are not uncommon, but rarely last more than a few days. A heat wave lasting longer than a week is extremely rare.

      
      

      Table 2-32: Average Temperatures and Rainfall

      Jan

      Feb

      Mar

      Apr

      May

      Jun

      Jul

      Aug

      Sep

      Oct

      Nov

      Dec

      Avg. High

      36°

      41°

      52°

      62°

      72°

      81°

      85°

      83°

      77°

      64°

      51°

      42°

      Avg. Low

      22°

      25°

      34°

      43°

      53°

      61°

      65°

      63°

      55°

      47°

      36°

      30°

      Avg. Precip.

      3.7”

      4.1”

      5.0”

      5.6”

      5.9”

      6.2”

      5.4”

      3.7”

      4.3”

      3.8”

      3.5”

      4.9”

      Drought/Extreme Heat Risk Assessment

      Drought is not generally severe in Noble County, but many years include abnormally dry periods and even moderate drought. Dry spells can last for several weeks but most months have sufficient rainfall to support vegetative growth, woodlands and human sustenance. Drought conditions, when they do occur, have a significant impact on the population and home use of water. Historically, Noble County has experienced abnormally dry conditions at some time during the year in nineteen of the past twenty-five years, and moderate drought conditions in nine of twenty-five years. There were five severe drought incidents recorded since 2000, including the worst in the fall of 2024. At the time this plan was developed, the 2025 drought was increasing in severity and had surpassed the consequences and severity of the previous year. Severe droughts had occurred in 2002, 2007, 2012, 2024 and 2025. The 2024 drought was rated as “D4” which is the most severe rating; three were rated at “D2” and seven reached

      the “D1” severity. There were numerous “D0” rated incidents in Noble County since the year

      2000; those were, on the average, likely to occur more than annually.

      
      

      Drought and extreme heat are countywide hazards and can affect all areas and jurisdictions. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, 8,160 residents of Noble County are affected by drought, and this constitutes 55.7% of the population. The rate 2025 as the fourth driest August on record, records of which reach back 131 years, and shows rainfall for the month at 2.53 inches less than normal.

      
      

      One of the unanticipated consequences of drought in Noble County is the increase in frequency and severity of woodland fires during dry spells and drought. Fire departments from across the county expressed some concern about their manpower and ability to fight fires of this magnitude, especially when the fires are driven by high winds. With challenges to full manpower during the windiest and hottest parts of the day, it becomes incredibly difficult to have adequate personnel to fight the fires to begin with, but if structures become involved, it is even more challenging.

      Important facts related to drought and heat vulnerability are shown in Table 2-13 in the illustration of land use in Noble County. Almost ninety percent of the land grows something, and drought and heat could have a devastating effect on vegetative acreage, whether it is farmlands, wetlands or woodlands. Agriculturally, Table 2-23 shows the detail of what is produced on Noble County’s farms, listing the specific types of crops and livestock raised as well as the revenues that could be affected by drought and extreme heat.

      
      

      The long-term effects of drought and heat wave according to climate change “high” level projections could increase the maximum number of days with a temperature over 90 degrees Fahrenheit from 17.2 to 75.4 days at the highest estimate. Climate variations could show an increase in highest temperature in a year from 90.3 degrees to 102.1 degrees. With these increases in temperature, average precipitation is expected to increase by about ten percent, making hot days humid and uncomfortable. Evaporation will increase as temperatures rise, worsening drought should rainfall become minimal. Those days place stress on electrical systems to fuel environmental systems, and stress the water supply to feed vegetation and crops, as well as providing additional potable water for people and animals. To the contrary, the growing season is anticipated to increase by up to fifteen days, enabling higher production and opening the door to crops that used to need more time to grow than Ohio weather has permitted in previous years. In counties like Noble where agriculture is only part of the economy, it is undetermined if climate fluctuations will have a negative impact. It is expected that the stress on the electrical grid as demands grow could be significant, causing outages and interruptions in service. Hot and humid weather is difficult for people with medical issues, especially respiratory or cardiac issues; therefore, this potential increase may negatively affect the elderly and medically-dependent part of the community, as well as others with economic disadvantages. When wheat and other grains and forages are growing, or are cut and drying before baling, the risk of field fires increases in hot, dry weather. Participants generally did not see significant changes in this area of vulnerability.

      Changes in the last five years relevant to drought and extreme heat are somewhat subtle. Vulnerability to drought and extreme heat changes affect an aging population as stated in the demographics section of the Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis, with much of the population living in rural areas being elderly. While in general the population in the small villages is decreasing, all of the villages have experienced increases in the average age of the population, which makes a higher percentage of the population susceptible to heat injury when temperatures rise, especially if combined with a power outage. The concentration of drought statistics is not severe for any of the last twenty-five years, but there are more regularity and repetition of measurable drought since 2016 than there was prior to that from 2004 until 2015. Within that time period, only 2012 held significant drought.

      
      

      The increasing likelihood of drought through a changing environment could potentially affect the water supply, endangering elderly (and others) when considering potable water sufficiency; however, the major water source is the Duck Creek Watershed that is fairly robust, and carries large amounts of water. Tributaries of Duck Creek are used for water supply as well. Those who live in service areas for distributed water have less risk than those who obtain their water from private wells. This might be off-set by the fact that as people in the small villages pass away or move into long-term facilities, the number of people at risk decreases. Younger people are not moving into the villages in any significant number, so there has not been and is not expected to be an increase in population in the villages in Noble County.

      Local Drought/Extreme Heat History

      Drought and extreme heat have had some impact on Noble County. Per official NCDC records, the Noble County has experienced eight official droughts and zero extreme heat or heat events as indicated in Table 2-33 below. There were no recorded damages, injuries or deaths.

      
      

      Table 2-33: Noble County Drought/Extreme Heat/Heat History

      Hazard	Incidents	Property Loss	Crop Loss	Deaths	Injuries
      Drought	8	0	0	0	0
      Extreme Heat	0	0	0	0	0
      Heat	0	0	0	0	0

      Noble County has been affected by several droughts in recent decades. The 1988-1989 North American Drought followed a milder drought in the Southeastern United States and California the year before. This drought spread from the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Midwest, Northern Great Plains, and Western United States. It was widespread, unusually intense, and accompanied by heat waves that killed 4,800 to 17,000 people nationwide and substantial numbers of livestock. One particular reason this drought became very damaging was that farmers likely farmed on land that was marginally arable. Another reason was the pumping of groundwater near the depletion mark. The Drought of 1989 destroyed crops almost nationwide. Lawns went brown and many cities and jurisdictions enacted water restrictions. This catastrophic drought continued to impact the Midwest and Northern Plains states during 1989. The drought was not declared over until 1990. According to the planning team, this drought did affect Noble County, but not to the extent that it did other areas.

      In June, July and August of 1999, little rain fell from May through June. Water restrictions were enacted in several communities, but crops were not adequately hydrated in the early stages of the growing season. Dry soils persisted through July and August when much of the needed rainfall missed fields in Noble County. Crop yields were believed to suffer a 30% reduction, but there was no determination of actual dollar amounts of loss. These dates are listed in the NOAA Storm Event Database and show no damages for Noble County.

      The second most recent drought to affect parts of Ohio, but not Noble County according to NOAA, occurred in the summer of 2012. This incident, referred to as the 2012 North American Drought, was an expansion of the 2010-2012 United States drought that began in the spring of 2012. Lack of snowfall in the United States caused very little melt water to absorb into the soil. The drought included most of the United States and all of Ohio. Many other counties were designated with moderate drought conditions by mid-June of 2012. This lasted for two months. This drought has been compared to similar droughts in the 1930s and 1950s but was not in place as long. The drought caused catastrophic economic ramifications. According to most measures, this drought exceeded the 1988-1989 North American Drought, which is the most recent comparable drought.

      
      

      The most recent drought to affect Ohio occurred in 2016. On January 6, 2017, the USDA issued a disaster declaration for drought conditions experienced from May through October 2016. The primary declaration was issued for five Ohio counties; ten contiguous counties were also included in the declaration. Noble County was not identified as a primary or contiguous county in this declaration but the greater northwest and west central Ohio regions were impacted by abnormally dry conditions. Southeast Ohio was not affected by this.

      
      

      In 2024, the second half of the calendar year was considered a drought. Noble County is listed on the NOAA Storm Event Database as experiencing drought in from July through December. There are no damages, injuries or deaths recorded in that data. Again, in 2025, drought conditions are worsening after late summer and early fall dry periods, and drought conditions are anticipated to spread across the state if the lack of rain continues.

   5. Earthquake

      An earthquake occurs when two blocks of earth, called plates, move past one another beneath earth’s surface. The location where the plates meet is called a fault. The shifting of the plates causes movement along the fault line. This movement can often be felt in areas surrounding the earthquake’s epicenter and can cause damage ranging from insignificant to devastating.

      Damage caused by an earthquake can include rattling foundations, falling debris, and, in the most severe cases, toppling buildings, bridges, and culverts. The severity of earthquake movement is measured using the Modified Mercalli Index scale as defined in the following chart:

      
      

      Intensity	Shaking	Description/Damage
      I	Not Felt	Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions.
      II	Weak	Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on building upper floors.

      
      

      III	Weak	Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motorcars may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated.
      IV	Light	Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motorcars rocked noticeably.
      V	Moderate	Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken. Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.
      VI	Strong	Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
      VII	Very Strong	Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.
      VIII	Severe	Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, and walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
      IX	Violent	Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations.
      X	Extreme	Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundations. Rails bent.

      
      

      According to the Ohio Seismic Network, seismic risk in Ohio is difficult to evaluate because significant earthquakes are infrequent. The recurrence interval is generally very long,

      sometimes spanning hundreds or thousands of years. In geologic terms, this classifies Ohio’s historic record as an instant. Another factor in earthquake risk is the nature of the geologic materials upon which a structure is built. ODNR states “ground motion from seismic waves

      tends to be magnified by unconsolidated sediments such as thick deposits of clay or sand and

      gravel.”

      Ohio has experienced more than 1,200 earthquakes since 1776 according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources database. While only fourteen of these events have caused damage, there is a greater risk for earthquakes in Ohio than most people realize. The far northeast corner of Ohio has the most earthquakes, with Lake County showing 163 earthquakes of record in the Ohio Earthquake Database. Shelby County, in northwest Ohio, holds the record for most intense earthquakes and most structural damage. None of those earthquakes is

      recent; most occurred in 1937 and before, some dating back to the 1800’s.

      
      

      Noble County is not new to earthquakes, although most of the detected events are not sufficient to be felt by county residents. There are four pocket areas that have dozens of mild quakes recorded in the Ohio Seismic Network mapping tool for the past seven years.

      Areas of interest in Noble County include an area in Buffalo Township where almost fifty earthquakes, ranging from less than a 1.0 on the Modified Mercalli Scale to almost a 3.0 are illustrated. A great majority of these were rated as “not felt” by residents, but detected by seismic monitoring devices. This area is near the Mt. Zion area, north of Old Infirmary Road and as far east as Wildlife Road. There are two not-felt earthquakes recorded in Seneca Township west of State Route 147 northeast of Sarahsville. Beaver Township experienced two earthquakes in 2017, the strongest of which was rated 3.7 in magnitude. Jackson Township has an area of historical detection near Keith, north of State Route 339 and west of Crooked Tree.

      These were rated less than 3.0 on the Modified Mercalli. There is a final area in Elk Township west of Road Fork and east of Crum Ridge Road where about a dozen quakes of low magnitude have been detected, but only a couple have been felt by people in the area in the past decade.

      Noble County’s earthquakes are mostly very mild. Seventy of 103 on record between 2017 and 2025 are classified as more than a 1.0 magnitude, but less than a 2.0. Only four were a 3.0 magnitude or higher, and only fourteen were between a 2.0 and a 3.0. Fifteen were less than a

      1.0. Most earthquakes that are 3.0 and less intense are not even felt by people in the area.

      Many of the Noble County earthquakes were listed as “not felt”.

      
      

      Map 2-8: Earthquake Epicenters in Ohio

      
      

      
      

      Local Earthquake History

      Noble County’s earthquakes are mostly very mild. Seventy of 103 on record between 2017 and 2025 are classified as more than a 1.0 magnitude, but less than a 2.0. Only four were a 3.0 magnitude or higher, and only fourteen were between a 2.0 and a 3.0. Fifteen were less than a

      1.0. Most earthquakes that are 3.0 and less intense are not even felt by people in the area. Many of the Noble County earthquakes were listed as “not felt”. There is no documented evidence of structural damage in Noble County from these incidents.

      
      

      There are documented cases of earthquakes, very similar to those in Noble County, in surrounding counties. No damages have been identified due to those incidents.

      The greatest vulnerability from earthquake is infrastructure. Pipes and devices buried underground are at risk for breakage and dislocation. Sewer lines, water lines, storm sewers, and other underground utilities can be jostled and damaged, sometimes to the point of destruction. In addition to interrupting water service for homes and businesses, this can negatively impact the use of fire hydrants during firefighting or hazardous materials response.

      Likewise, all utilities overhead, such as communication lines, electrical service, and wireless receivers are at risk for heavy damage, toppling poles and pulling lines down. Devices that receive wireless or sound signals can be thrown out of adjustment as receivers are turned and rattled out of place. As wireless communications are impacted, the capacity to warn and notify residents of storms and other threats diminishes abruptly, and this causes a cascading effect when people don’t know a threat is materializing. The loss of communications is life-threatening.

      
      

      Roads, bridges and culverts are at risk of cracking, disconnecting and collapsing, dependent upon the severity of the earthquake. Reduced integrity of these structures can lead to washouts, collapses, and erosion of surfaces and foundations.

      Building foundations can be impacted by earthquakes that generally are more severe than what Noble County has experienced.

      
      

      All of this infrastructure is very expensive to replace, and when old lines and pipes need to be taken out before new is installed, the price rises even further. Between debris management costs and infrastructure repair and replacement, the costs could be devastating and long-lasting.

   6. Fire

      Noble County jurisdictions are concerned about structure, field and woodland fires.

      
      

      Woodland and field fires are the biggest concern. These often happen in the middle of the day when volunteer personnel are away at work, and staffing is at its lowest. These fires, especially during dry months or periods without rain, start easily and spread quickly. They can engulf many acres before they are even notices, especially if they are out in the townships where

      there is little traffic during the day and residents are away at work. Winds can fuel these fires, making them almost impossible to contain. While this does not happen frequently, the severity and damages could be extensive to catastrophic.

      
      

      They have a wide range of residential property that includes small frame homes with typical construction materials to high-end expensive homes with large roof spans, extensive sub-surface areas, complex mechanical systems, and multiple building materials. There is a large enough number of mobile homes that burn quickly once a fire starts to cause concern. Some are located in areas with narrow access roads and poor water supply. There are factories, businesses, retail strip centers, large box stores, and manufacturing facilities that use chemicals and hazardous substances in their work process. Grain bins, sometimes very high and close together, in the rural areas. The municipalities, especially Caldwell, have some old buildings that were constructed in an era that failed to recognize fire risk in its building practices. In some areas, fire walls and separations have been removed as various property owners adapted the structures to the need of the time. In some cases, construction involved mixed uses without the advantage of isolation of dangerous substances. The risk of fire spreading once it

      starts is very high, and it wouldn’t take a long time for a whole block to go up in flames. This makes firefighting more dangerous than normal, and requires specialized aerial and pumping equipment that is not necessarily in ample supply or readily accessible.

      Much of the county is covered by volunteer departments, vulnerable to the availability of their personnel. That personnel are likely to work outside the village during the workday, leaving the village almost virtually uncovered during working hours. While mutual aid is a given, and neighboring departments are more than willing to help each other any time needed, those volunteers are often out of town for work as well. At the same time that the businesses are most active – during the work day – the personnel to address an emergency are the least available. This sets up a level of vulnerability many of the municipalities are not comfortable

      with, but are hard pressed in today’s environment to resolve.

      Structure fires, field fires, and other fires affect every jurisdiction every year. All jurisdictions are provided some form of fire service by their jurisdiction. The number of personnel, apparatus and other equipment varies from department to department, as does the training level of personnel. Ohio law requires local government to provide fire service to the residents.

   7. Flood

      A flood is defined as any high flow, overflow, or inundation of water over typically dry land that causes or threatens damage. Floods occur subsequent to meteorological events such as substantial precipitation, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, rapid snowmelt, or extreme wind events along coastal waterways. In some areas, seismic activity can trigger floods.

      
      

      Riverine flooding occurs when a river or stream rises to an elevation that causes the river to overflow its banks. The rising water threatens or causes damage to roadways, homes, buildings, and occupied spaces near the overflowing waterway. Lower levels of a watershed are more susceptible to this type of flooding because these waterways receive all the water

      from the upper levels and are responsible for carrying a much higher volume of water than the tributaries. Water that lays on the surface and is not absorbed into the soils is considered surface flooding; this can occur on concrete or other impervious surfaces, roads and streets, parking lots, or other large areas. Water that ponds and takes an extended period of time to drain even though it is laying on top of soil is considered areal flooding.

      Flash floods are defined as the rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area; a flash flood can also occur when there is a rapid rise in the water level of a stream or creek and the water rises above a pre-determined flood level within six hours of a precipitation event.

      This type of flooding occurs when the ground is too saturated, impervious, or flat to drain rainfall into waterways through storm sewers, ditches, creeks, and streams at the same rate as the precipitation falls.

      
      

      Areal flooding is ponding of water with slow drainage in low-lying areas. This happens in fields, woodlands, and other natural habitat and is not even noticed, but when it occurs on property that is used regularly, it becomes an annoyance and a problem. This is often corrected by engineered systems like storm sewers, retention and detention devices, and drainage tile.

      Worldwide, flooding is the most common and costly disaster, resulting in significant loss of life and property every year. Floods have a substantial impact on the infrastructure. Common effects include roadway breeches, bridge washouts, roadway wash away, and water-covered roadways. As floodwater moves rapidly and forcefully, it washes away the surface and sub-surface of roads, causing holes, ruts, and other problems for vehicles. Floodwater that is one foot deep is strong enough to carry vehicles away, often with occupants inside. Rescuers are powerless against rapid, rising water because they are unable to exert enough strength to counteract the physics of moving water.

      
      

      Floodwaters seek the path of least resistance as they travel to lower ground and will seep into and occupy any structure in their path. Basements and lower levels of buildings can become inundated with floodwater. Installing sandbags along the exterior of a building can only serve as a temporary stopgap measure; if floodwaters do not recede quickly, the force of the water will move through the sandbags and enter the structure.

      In hilly areas, like Noble County, floodwaters can become rapidly flowing death traps. A swollen creek with the strength of moving water rushing through a path of least resistance can take all control from responders or survivors, and pull them into the water without much resistance. The water is much more dangerous than it is perceived, and can swallow vehicles and people in an instant. This makes flood rescue extremely dangerous, and causes urgency to surround the messages sent amid heavy flooding. This, as well, adds to the cost and stress of an already-destructive disaster.

      
      

      The aftereffects of flooding can be just as damaging and dangerous as the initial incident. Cleanup is often a long, protracted activity with its own set of hazards. Sewer systems can become inundated with floodwater and cease to function properly. Standing water becomes contaminated with household and industrial chemicals, fuel, and other materials that have

      leaked into the water. All floodwater is considered contaminated, either from germs and disease or hazardous materials. Debris collection of wet, saturated belongings and property is difficult, disheartening, and expensive. Disposal often involves special handling or decontamination actions of some sort. This creates a hazard for responders and residents throughout the initial recovery phase of the disaster and adds significantly to cleanup and recovery costs.

      Flood Risk Assessment

      Flooding is considered a moderate to relatively high risk in Noble County. This includes riverine, surface, flash, and flash flooding. The county’s rolling terrain and the number of rivers and streams contribute to this risk, but also provide natural drainage that is extremely effective.

      Many of the communities are built on elevated land, further enabling excess precipitation and collecting waters to drain rather quickly. Flooding is a countywide hazard and can affect nearly all jurisdictions.

      
      

      Noble County is susceptible to riverine flooding in multiple areas of the county. These areas are located along the Duck Creek Watershed, Muskingum River Lower Tributaries, and Wills Creek Watershed.

      Flash flooding is a widespread risk in the county. Village streets are vulnerable to surface flooding, but most villages have enough elevation variation that drainage occurs naturally. In some areas, elevated state and interstate highways cause drainage onto local roads and other areas where water takes some time to drain naturally. In heavy rainfall events, water does not drain as fast as it falls sometimes, leading to flooded roadways and parking lots. There are many roads that are closed after heavy rain due to a low-lying bridge, or a winding turn in the road that is flooded over in one section or another. Many of the roads follow creeks and streams that overflow, and in doing so, the roadway is flooded briefly. Some road sections are highly vulnerable to the massive amounts of concrete roadway that dumps water onto the nearby roads, properties and businesses. This takes some time to drain naturally and allow for use of the infrastructure or property. If ground is frozen or already saturated, this occurs very quickly. This can last for several days, impeding transportation and movement of goods and services within the county for an inconvenient length of time. Collection of water in low-lying roads, bridges that are in low areas, or parking lots that are low lying is common. Some neighborhoods, especially along West Fork Duck Creek where the population is more concentrated, experience surface flooding after heavy or persistent rains.

      
      

      The Village of Summerfield is not vulnerable to flooding because there is no area considered to be floodplain. Summerfield input said that the area drains very well and rarely is flash flooding even a problem. The area is elevated and built on a rolling hillside.

      Flood damage in Noble County could include damage and destruction to physical buildings, infrastructure, crops, business inventory, business equipment, raw materials, manufacturing materials and livestock or harvested and stored crops. Residential structural damages could include single and multi-family homes, group living facilities, and multi-family housing

      complexes. Commercial and industrial structural damages could include buildings used for manufacturing, product handling, transportation, warehousing, retail, business, and industrial, and the capital equipment associated with those uses. Damaged businesses may also include utility generation, mining business assets, and gas and oil well equipment and products.

      Agricultural structures would include barns used for livestock, storage buildings, equipment, and machinery. Grain bins and elevator systems could be damaged very easily by the force of water. Government, nonprofit, and educational institutions include critical structures like fire stations, police stations, hospitals, offices, schools, and special facilities like garages and maintenance buildings, and the capital contents of those structures. Institutions like court houses, churches, and other historical buildings are common in Noble County and can be damaged by flooding. All of this damage would result in large amounts of debris to manage, including finish, structural, and foundation materials. It is unlikely that loss of life would be attributed to flooding. If a death were to occur, it would likely be the result of two or more combined threats, such as lightning, tornado, or driving into standing water. With the robust waterways like Duck Creek, Willis Creek, and Glady Run, it is possible for people to become stranded on roofs and be injured or die as a result of being washed away.

      
      

      Floodplain Mapping and National Flood Insurance Program

      Noble County’s floodplain maps were updated in 2011 as part of FEMA’s Map Modernization

      Program. The current floodplain maps became effective January 6, 2011.

      The table below provides information on participation in the National Flood Insurance Program for communities in Noble County. The information is from FEMA’s Community Status Book for Ohio. The communities listed in table 2-24 participate in NFIP and are considered to be in good standing with the program. Those identified in table 2-25 are considered under sanction by NFIP because they have identified flood hazard area but do not participate in NFIP.

      
      

      Summerfield does not currently participate in NFIP because it does not have any identified floodplain areas.

      Table 2-34: NFIP Participating Communities

      Community	Initial FHBM Identified	Initial FIRM Identified	Current Map Effective Date	Reg-Emer Date
      Noble County	01/10/75	01/01/88	01/06/11	01/01/88
      Belle Valley	08/30/74	11/02/90	01/06/11	11/02/90
      Caldwell	06/07/74	09/04/87	01/06/11	09/04/87
      Sarahsville	03/28/75	01/06/11	01/06/11 (M)	01/06/11
      Summerfield	Not Participating/Not Sanctioned – No insurable area

      Table 2-35: NFIP Sanctioned Communities

      Community	Initial FHBM Identified	Initial FIRM Identified	Current Map EFF Date	Sanction Date
      Batesville		01/06/11	01/06/11	01/06/12
      Dexter City	08/21/74	08/19/87	01-06-11	01/06/11 (S)

      Communities that are participating in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) are required to adopt and enforce regulations and codes that apply to new development in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs). These local floodplain management regulations must contain, at a minimum, NFIP requirements and standards that apply not only to new structures, but also to existing structures which are Substantially Improved (SI), or Substantially Damaged (SD) from any cause, whether natural or human-induced hazards.

      According to 44 CFR 59.1, Substantial improvement means any reconstruction, rehabilitation, addition or other improvement to a structure, the total cost of which equals or exceeds 50 percent of the market value of the structure before the start of construction of the improvement. Likewise, substantial damage means damage of any origin sustained by a structure whereby the cost of restoring the structure to its before damaged condition would equal or exceed 50 percent of the market value of the structure before the damage occurred. SI/SD requirements are also triggered when any combination of costs to repair and improvements to a structure in an SFHA equals or exceeds 50 percent of the structure’s market value (excluding land value).

      (𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝑅𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟) + (𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠)

      𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 ≥ 50 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡

      
      

      Enforcing the SI/SD requirements is a very important part of a community’s floodplain management responsibilities. The purpose of the SI/SD requirements is to protect the property owner’s investment and safety, and, over time, to reduce the total number of buildings that are exposed to flood damage, thus reducing the burden on taxpayers through the payment of disaster assistance. SD/SI requirements are enforced by the local floodplain administrator and monitored by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) Floodplain Management Program during Community Assistance Visits. If a local floodplain administrator is overwhelmed by the number of SD/SI inspections after a large event, ODNR has developed a network of building code officials that are trained in conducting SD/SI field determinations. Help with SD/SI inspections can be requested through the county emergency management agency director.

      For more information regarding Substantial Improvement and Substantial Damage, county officials can refer to FEMA’s Substantial Improvement/ Substantial Damage Desk Reference, P-758 or contact the ODNR Floodplain Management Program.

      
      

      At the time of this plan update, the county was updating their floodplain regulations.

      Map 2-9: Noble County Floodplain

      
      

      Flood Map Availability

      FEMA provides online access to flood maps at their Flood Map Service Center found at https://msc.fema.gov/portal/advanceSearch.

      Noble County has twenty-three panels of floodplain maps. Each one can be viewed, and specific areas can be selected and downloaded as a FIRMette. Specific areas can be isolated and printed. This website has the latest flood maps. Noble County’s flood maps were adopted in 2011, and that is the latest version. Floodplain regulations are under review at the time this plan was written; those are accessible at the Noble County Planning Commission or the EMA office. The Noble County EMA Director is the floodplain manager for most of Noble County.

      Dexter City’s mayor is the floodplain manager for the village. They can assist in finding maps as

      needed.

      Repetitive and Severe Repetitive Loss Structures

      Noble County has several known repetitive loss structures. See the list below for specifics. Additional repetitive loss and/or severe repetitive loss structures may exist in Noble County and not have been available or known at the time this was researched.

      Repetitive loss and severe repetitive loss properties are sometimes eligible for acquisition and relocation grants that allow the property owner to choose to sell their property to the jurisdiction for a fair market value and relocate to a less vulnerable area. The jurisdiction than returns the property to natural habitat with deed restrictions that prevent other uses.

      Table 2-36: Repetitive Loss Properties

      Noble County Rep Loss and Severe Rep Loss Structures (Unmitigated)
      JURISDICTION Occupancy	Total RL/SRL Structures	RL Structures	SRL Structures	Total Losses	Total Paid
      Belle Valley, Village of (Incorporated)
      Single Family Residential	7	7	0	15	$288,190
      Business Non-Residential	1	1	0	3	$80,348
      Noble County (Unincorporated)
      Single Family Residential	3	3	0	7	$137,152
      Business Non-Residential	1	1	0	2	$126,114
      Caldwell, Village of (Incorporated)
      Multi-Family Residential	1	1	0	2	$17,415
      Single Family Residential	2	2	0	4	$25,284
      Countywide Total	15	15	0	33	$674,503

      
      

      Noble County has experienced 51 floods and 53 flash floods since 1950, per NCDC records. Property damage and casualties have been minimal, with the exception of five deaths in one of the flash floods as people tried to escape floodwaters. The same incident caused $10M in damages.

      
      

      Table 2-37: Noble County Flood History

      Hazard	Incidents	Property Loss	Crop Loss	Deaths	Injuries
      Flood	51	447.0K	0	0	0
      Flash Flood	53	10.322M	10.0M	5	0

      The most remarkable of the flood and flash flood incidents in Noble County occurred on June 27, 1998. Heavy rain the evening of June 27, 1998 caused flooding throughout Noble County. In Caldwell, a 90-year-old man and his 89-year-old wife were killed when flash flooding from Duck Creek washed part of their home away. Two more fatalities occurred as a 71-year-old man and 31-year-old man were killed attempting to drive through floodwaters in separate cars. A 37-year-old man died in Belle Valley as he tried to swim the West Fork of Duck Creek after being stranded on a rooftop. This storm caused $10M in property damage and another $10M in crop damage.

      
      

      In September 2004 Noble County received six inches of rain on already-saturated soils. There was major flooding in Sarahsville first as waterways swelled out of their banks. Caldwell flooding reached the northern part of the county in Buffalo Township and beyond, and Batesville flooded by nighttime. This storm damaged or destroyed 81 structures with over six inches of rain, and cost an estimated $243K in property damage.

      No other incidents are shown to have caused death or injury, and most incidents caused less than $10K in damages.

   8. Hazardous Materials Incidents

      A hazardous materials spill or release occurs when a hazardous substance breaches its container. Releases can occur within facilities that store and use hazardous materials and during the transport of these substances. Hazardous materials are stored in numerous types of containers, including drums, cans, jars, pipes, and other vessels. Some releases are incidental and can be safely cleaned up by on-site facility personnel. An incidental release does not threaten the health or safety hazard to the immediate area or greater community because of the small quantity that is released. A release that requires action by first responders or agencies outside of the spiller’s facility is considered an emergency response.

      
      

      Every hazardous material is unique and can be toxic, flammable, explosive, or corrosive, as well as any combination of those threats. When a hazardous substance is released into the environment, it can negatively impact the safety and health of the community by contaminating the air, water, and/or ground. To protect the community, evacuation from the facility or area surrounding the spill may be necessary.

      
      

      Dangerous chemicals can be hauled in a variety of ways, involving different types of containers and haulers. State and federal regulations provide guidance and regulation in the transportation of chemicals in a quantity sufficient to pose a hazard. These regulations are enforced by law enforcement and transportation officials. The majority of chemicals are transported by highway and rail, but on occasion there are chemicals flown on cargo planes.

      Counties generally do periodic commodity studies to determine was is hauled through and inside their county; refer to the Noble County LEPC for specific details.

      Accidents on highways and roadways can cause the vehicles carrying substances to overturn, collide with other vehicles, or to ignite and burn. The runoff as liquid spreads, the vapors as a chemical dissipates, or the flash point and burning of a substance can expose those nearby to extreme danger from both traumatic injury and chemical absorption. These vehicle accidents compound the vulnerabilities of people and the environment to include both traumatic injury due to the crash or kinetics of the incident, and the negative effects of absorbing the chemical that is thrown into the atmosphere, waterways or soils.

      Rail incidents are a minimal concern in Noble County because there is no rail inside the county. Rail comes very close along the northwest county line, and winds out of the northwest could carry airborne contaminants into the county. Watersheds can always bring contaminants into a county other than the point of entry, and that is the case with Noble County too. First responders who manage hazardous materials spills in waterways should be very familiar with the natural movement of water in their jurisdictions to fully comprehend the point of origin of the spill and the properties at risk as the spilled chemical travels through ditches, streams, and rivers. The county has drainage that naturally falls different directions in various places, and the responders need to understand the vulnerability this brings to given sections of land and population centers.

      Industrial and residential exposure to hazardous substances can also involve both trauma and exposure. Most incidents involve the breech of a container or the undesirable combination of chemicals that results in a lethal substance. These spills and leaks can occur in businesses, homes, and industries or anywhere else that hazardous substances exist. Noble County LEPC maintains reporting documents from all businesses and industries that have reportable amounts of hazardous and extremely hazardous substances on their premises, and this information is shared with first responders for awareness and training purposes.

      
      

      No infallible reporting system for hazardous materials incidents exists. Many times, incidents of non-lethal exposure are not recognized as an emergency. For example, old thermometers are dropped and mercury is spilled, swept up, and thrown in garbage unless individuals know of the risks. They do not always know, and thus those kinds of incidents go totally unreported.

      Industrial reporting is gauged by regulation. Spills involving reportable quantities are documented according to regulation. Smaller less significant spills often go undocumented unless someone is hurt and requires medical attention. Large industrial spills and leaks are investigated by local hazardous materials teams, regulators, and government responders. There are no major distribution centers, shipping terminals or warehouses in Noble County, which helps to limit the unknown industrial spills that are cleaned up by on-site personnel and not reported to the LEPC.

      Table 2-38: Hazardous Material Classifications

      Class	Description
      1	Explosives
      2	Gases
      3	Flammable liquids and combustible liquid
      4	Flammable solid, spontaneously combustible, and dangerous when wet
      5	Oxidizer and organic peroxide
      6	Poison (toxic) and poison inhalation hazard
      7	Radioactive
      8	Corrosive
      9	Miscellaneous

      
      

      Noble County has risk for hazardous materials incidents. The county is home to some manufacturing and industrial sites that manufacture or utilize hazardous substances. These substances are transported across the county on many state, and local roadways and limited rail lines. The majority of these transportation routes pass through municipalities and populated areas in Noble County, increase the population’s risk for exposure. The areas inside villages and the city where multiple state routes intersect, or where railroad tracks cross streets are vulnerable areas. As units hauling hazardous substances navigate their way through the municipalities the opportunity to make a wrong turn, not see a small vehicle, or catch a low-lying wire or pole is present.

      Many state highways in Noble County are two-lane roads, but I-77 is a divided four lane highway. The narrower state highways handle traffic moving from one village or another, or for those vehicles delivering goods or picking up shipments from individual businesses. Winding and curving highways, along with two-lane passing zones, complex navigation, and intersection hazards cause vehicular incidents at intersections and where buildings sit. Sometimes state highways and larger county roads are used as an alternative to interstates, but this brings the hazards of a major highway to the smaller communities. Moving vehicle accidents often happen when stopping, turning, or navigating turns. Stopped vehicle accidents most frequently occur in loading and unloading cargo or other materials.

      
      

      Some areas are confusing to navigate, possibly including the juncture of several state highways in one of the villages, and the crossing of several state highways near I-77. Entering and exiting the interstate is an area of increased vulnerability. In some areas, farm implements and other heavy equipment use the highways but travel at slow speeds. Passing on two-lane highways leads to crashes, and this is probably the highest risk of a hazardous materials spill locally.

      There are numerous locations where several state highways intersect, and the junctions are not always straight ninety-degree intersections. Angled roadways and confusing stop signs sometimes make one intersection more dangerous than another, and fueling locations with large fuel storage tanks make uncontrolled vehicles very concerning.

      Noble County is also vulnerable to farm chemical accidents, including anhydrous ammonia, fertilizers, pesticides, and other chemicals used on farms like petroleum products, heating gases, and lubricants and cleaning compounds. Additional risk includes the type vehicle used in transportation, including but not limited to farm equipment, small trucks, pickup trucks, and wagons.

      
      

      Pipelines and storage facilities for petroleum products present a hazardous materials risk in Noble County. These pipelines carry natural gas, petroleum products, and other substances. While the pipelines are well maintained, there is always risk for an incident. First responders participate in training to prepare for these potential responses, and relationships between pipeline operators and first responders are maintained to facilitate the exchange of information and training. Natural gas and gas transmission pipelines cross several areas of Noble County.

      There are pipelines underground that are close to Batesville, Sarahsville, Summerfield, and Caldwell. There are no breakout tanks or LNG plants, and there are no recorded accidents according to this resource.

      
      

      Because of the movement of hazardous materials on different types of transportation systems throughout the county, hazardous materials incidents are a countywide hazard and can affect all areas and jurisdictions.

      Local Hazardous Materials Incident History

      According to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), there has been one incident in Noble County since January 1, 2005. On January 25, 2015 there was a vehicle

      accident involving a tanker carrying cryogenic nitrogen that lost control and tipped over on Batesville Road South in Summerfield. There was no release of liquid nitrogen.

      
      

      Records at the Noble County LEPC indicate that there have been no serious incidents in the past five years, but there have been several minor spills and releases. In 2022, there were no releases or spills, but in the following year, there were ten incidents. These included a brine release, natural gas leaks, a small fire at a fuel station, and a diesel fuel spill. In 2024, there were eight incidents that involved an oil tank being displaced into a pond, a fire at a well pad, fuel tank spills, gas leaks, a well leak that was at a documented “plugged” well list at ODNR, and a pipeline release. In 2025, as of October 15th, there were six incidents. One involved an accident with diesel fuel, gas leaks, natural gas leaks, and truck fires with brine on board. There were no accessible records for 2020- 2021 due to changes in staff who record the incidents. Records in the previous hazard mitigation plan were consistent with the most recent years, with three to six incidents per year, from similar incidents.

      
      

      Noble County LEPC maintains a list of detailed information about each business that stores and/or uses hazardous or extremely hazardous chemicals in the course of their manufacturing or business activities. The LEPC provides leadership, assessment of training needs, resources, and financial support to the departments that respond to hazardous materials incidents. They also track and maintain a list of approved and capable clean up contractors. The information from PMSHA is not necessarily reported to the LEPC, and some industrial sites, such as shipping terminals, may have full-time hazardous materials staff.

      Noble County LEPC reports that most incidents are handled by fire departments in the county, and are resolved to the satisfaction of local and state regulatory agencies.

      
      

      Hazardous materials incidents are a countywide hazard and can affect all areas and jurisdictions. The populated jurisdictions along highways are particularly vulnerable to this hazard because of their proximity to the major roadways on which these substances are transported. I-77 presents a particular hazard because of the volume and speed of vehicles carrying hazardous materials.

   9. Land Subsidence

      Land subsidence is the gradual or sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface caused by subsurface movement that develops over time. The primary causes are aquifer-system compaction, underground mining, drainage of organic soils, natural compaction, and thawing permafrost. Land subsidence affects more than 17,000 square miles across the United States. Noble County is not highly affected by land subsidence, but there are specific locations that are vulnerable.

      
      

      Karst topography is one cause of land subsidence in Ohio. Noble County is not considered an area vulnerable to karst, and there is no local history of sinkholes and other consequences that are typical of karst issues. Karst mapping in Ohio is improving every year, and the following map shows where in Ohio this type of topography is prevalent. Noble County is not shown as having this particular issue.

      Map 2-10: Ohio Karst Areas

      
      

      
      

      
      

      Noble County is somewhat vulnerable to landslide and erosion. Landslide is defined a downslope movement of land or earth’s materials, such as rock and soils. These movements can be triggered by drilling, blasting and other human-initiated forces that cause land to gravitationally slide from higher to lower elevations. This can involve rock as well as soil, and if structures or equipment are in the way, it can be damaged or destroyed if there is enough force of velocity involved in the moving materials. More serious landslide issues are common where there is more mountainous topography. Noble County’s rolling area has more vulnerability that flat land, but not nearly what happens in mountainous areas.

      
      

      There are three types of landslides.

      • Rotational slump is when a mass of rock or sediment moves as a unit along a downward slope.

      • Earthflow is caused by rock or sediment flowing downslope.

      • Rockfall is cause when large blocks of rock slide downslope quickly. Ohio’s sandstone

        and limestone, weakened by water that flows through it, is a common rockfall incident.

        
        

        Land subsidence can be worsened and vulnerability increased by mine blasting and drilling. Abandoned mines cause a weakened integrity of land, and structures, infrastructure and other things built on top of the compromised area can be threatened. Abandoned mines of a sandstone, limestone, or other softer stones are severely damaged over time as water flows through the mines and erodes the structures below the surface. Eventually the surface will collapse as the integrity is destroyed. When abandoned mines are pumped and the water is removed, the vulnerability is significantly reduced. When the mines are truly abandoned, and no pumping occurs, the constant flow of water erodes the soft stone.

        Abandoned mines in Noble County are prevalent but are not mapped thoroughly, to the point that the extent of this issue is not entirely known. However, it is required that homeowners in Noble County pay a minimal amount as part of their home insurance each year to cover any abandoned mine incidents that might impact their property.

        Erosion is the gradual movement of soils through the forces of wind and water. Flash flooding causes erosion when rapid flowing water with upstream force washes soils away, widens waterways on outside turns, and picks up sediment from the riverine expansion into fields, roadsides, and other properties that are not part of the waterway. Wind picks up topsoil and blows it away when fields are plowed, or soils are uncovered and unprotected. In both cases, the soils taken up by water and wind are deposited in another area where the forces settle.

        Erosion caused by rapidly flowing water ends up in a more concentrated area as sediment. Soils blown away are not deposited in as concentrated a manner.

        
        

        Stream bank erosion is also likely in Noble County. When significant waterways, such as Duck Creek and its branches, flow through land, soils are eroded away. Streams gradually become wider and deeper as soils are eroded away, and each time heavy precipitation places a heavy load on waterways, soils are eroded to some extent. Fields or woodlands that lack ground cover will lose topsoil as the water drains quickly and abruptly. The more speed the drainage develops, the more topsoil the water takes with it. Due to rolling terrain and some open fields, some areas of Noble County are highly vulnerable to streambank erosion. If soils are dropped in the same area of a waterway repeatedly, there can be sediment build up that impedes the flow of the waterway. This can occur where there are obstructions, bends and turns, or other factors that cause the water flow to slow and drop the soil being carried by the water.

        
        

        When large waterways, including large ditches like Duck Creek, flow fast and furious through turns and bends, the water on the outside of a curve travels faster and has more force than the water on the inside of the curve. The water will, upon repeated incidents, cut away the banks on the outside. As this happens, if the bank is high, the soils above the cutaway will drop and that land will drop into the waterway. If this occurs on the high bank of a waterway where there are homes, buildings or infrastructure, those structures can lose foundation integrity and be significantly damaged or destroyed. This situation is typically seen on a high bank of a river or stream that has widened to capacity already.

        Land Subsidence Risk Assessment

        Noble County is vulnerable to land subsidence, but due to incomplete maps and unknown presence or extent of abandoned mines, the vulnerability is not entirely known.

        Areas along major waterways such as Duck Creek and its branches or Wills Creek and some of the larger waterways are vulnerable to this kind of damage. This damage often begins unnoticed, and when structures are threatened, the cause is first identified.

        Landslide is indicative of land subsidence. According to the US Landslide Inventory and Susceptibility mapping tool, there is some landslide vulnerability along several waterways.

        
        

        Ohio Landslide Incident and Susceptibility map, Noble County is at high incidence levels and high susceptibility-moderate incidents levels for landslide vulnerability.

        
        

        Map 2:11: Landslide Susceptibility

        
        

        Local Land Subsidence History

        There was no local documented history of landslide, erosion, or land subsidence reported by stakeholders. However, about one third to half of the respondents felt that their area was impacted by land subsidence. They listed roadway safety and road blockages, ditch widening, loss of pastureland, crop and property damage, infrastructure damage, and home damage as consequences of land subsidence. Respondents from areas with major ditches, such as Caldwell and townships south of Senecaville Lake were more likely to cite specific damages due to this threat than areas in the northwestern or southeastern part of the county.

        
        

        The Ohio Department of Transportation indicates that Noble County has had 201-400 incidents of landslide and rockslide. Stakeholders did report erosion incidents along waterways and on personal property, but did not report any collapsing structures or infrastructure.

   10. Severe Thunderstorm

       A thunderstorm is a local storm produced by a cumulonimbus cloud accompanied by thunder, lightning, and/or hail. Lightning is a brief, naturally occurring electrical discharge that occurs between a cloud and another cloud or the ground. Hail is frozen rain pellets that can damage buildings, vehicles, and other structures as they fall. Hail forms in the higher clouds and accumulates size as it falls as precipitation. If temperatures close to the ground are warm, the hail can partially melt or become freezing rain. Most thunderstorms include heavy precipitation and wind. These storms can produce hail, lightning, flash floods, tornadoes, and

       damaging winds that pose significant risk to people and property in the area. A thunderstorm that produces a tornado, winds of 58 mph or greater, and/or hail with a diameter of at least 1”, is considered a severe thunderstorm. These storms typically develop as part of a larger storm front and are preceded and followed by regular thunderstorms.

       Noble County experiences numerous thunderstorm events each year. The majority are mild or moderate in severity and include a combination of heavy precipitation, wind, and thunder. Hail and lightning are possible, but occur much less frequently than wind and heavy precipitation.

       Thunderstorms that include hail and lightning are much less frequent but are generally more severe. Thunderstorms are a countywide hazard and can affect all areas and jurisdictions.

       Lightning damages can occur countywide and have been recorded in the weather events data. There can be casualties due to lightning, especially if the storm hits suddenly and with little warning, or if the lightning is an isolated lone-standing weather event. These storms range from minor to severe, although the most are minor or moderate. Thunderstorms are relatively frequent but generally result in limited property damage.

       
       

       It is not believed that development activities have had any effect on the countywide vulnerability to severe storms and thunderstorms, including rain, hail, lightning and wind. Minor improvements in storm drains and other infrastructure may have resolved some issues in specific locations. Otherwise, there has been no significant change for any village or the county as a whole. If rain becomes heavier due to climate changes, the damages from hail, lightning and heavy rain may increase as a result. Many of these kinds of damages are covered by private insurance, so it is believed that the damages numbers are under-expressed.

       
       

       Local Severe Thunderstorm History

       According to NCDC records dating back to 1950 Noble County has experienced 111 thunderstorm events with 58 days reporting property damage. The relatively low number of damages is affected by the lack of lightening and hail in these storms, as compared to other Ohio counties. These storms could also include high wind and tornadoes. Those components are assessed separately.

       Table 2-39: Noble County Severe Thunderstorm History

       Hazard	Total Incidents	Total Property Loss	Total Crop Loss	Total Deaths	Total Injuries	Average Loss/Incident
       Thunderstorm/Wind	111	$715.20K	$1.0K	0	0	$6.443K
       Hail	28	$0	$0	0	0	$0
       Lightning	0	$0	0	0	0	$0
       Heavy Rain	2	$0	$0	0	0	$0

       During the past five years, severe storms have occurred about eight times per year, except that 2022 and 2023 were uncharacteristically quiet. In the past five years, 2021 through 2025, there have been damages from these storms totaling $80.00K in property damage and $1.00K in crop damage.

   11. Tornado

       A tornado is an intense, rotating column of air that protrudes from a cumulonimbus cloud in the shape of a funnel or rope whose circulation is present on the ground. If the column of air does not touch the ground, it is referred to as a funnel cloud. This column of air circulates around an area of intense low pressure, almost always in a counterclockwise direction.

       Tornadoes usually range from 300 to 2,000 feet wide and form ahead of advancing cold fronts. They tend to move from southwest to northeast because they are most often driven by southwest winds.

       
       

       A tornado’s life progresses through several stages: dust-whirl, organizing, mature, shrinking, and decay. Once in the mature stage, the tornado generally stays in contact with the ground for the duration of its life cycle. When a single storm system produces more than one distinct funnel clouds, it is referred to as a tornado family or outbreak.

       
       

       Tornado magnitude is measured using the Enhanced Fujita scale, abbreviated as EF. The rankings range from EF-0 to EF-5 and are based on damages caused by the tornado. Prior to 2012, the Fujita scale was used to measure tornado damage and was abbreviated F-1 to F-2, depending on the level of impact.

       The following chart was taken from FEMA’s website, and indicates the type of damages per

       Enhanced Fujita Scale tornado classification. Tornadoes in Noble County are usually below EF3.

       
       

       EF-Scale	Wind Speed	Typical Damage
       0	65 – 85 mph	Light damage. Peels surface off some roofs; some damage to gutters or siding; branches broken off trees; shallow-rooted trees pushed over,
       1	86 – 110 mph	Moderate damage. Roofs severely stripped; mobile homes overturned or badly damaged; loss of exterior doors; windows and other glass broken.
       2	111 – 135 mph	Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-constructed houses; foundations of frame homes shifted; mobile homes completely destroyed; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object missiles generated; cars lifted off ground
       3	136 – 165 mph	Severe damage. Entire stories of well-constructed houses destroyed; severe damage to large buildings such as shopping malls; trains overturned; trees debarked; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance.
       4	166 – 200 mph	Devastating damage. Whole frame and well-constructed houses completely leveled; cars thrown and small missiles generated.
       5	>200 mph	Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters; high-rise buildings have significant structural damage; incredible phenomena will occur
       No rating		Inconceivable damage. Should a tornado with the maximum wind speed in excess of EF-5 occur, the extent and types of damage may not be conceived. A number of missiles such as iceboxes, water heaters, storage tanks, automobiles, etc. Will create serious secondary damage on structures.

       Tornadoes are the most damaging of all atmospheric phenomena. While their frequency is low, the probability of significant damage is high. Because tornadoes occur as part of a storm system, they do not strike as independent incidents. Emerging out of a storm front or super cell, the tornado, especially when accompanied by heavy rain, straight-line wind, lightning, and hail, can be extremely damaging. Effects of a tornado include uprooted trees, damaged or destroyed buildings, and smashed vehicles. Twisting and flying debris turns into projectile weapons, which can cause injuries and fatalities.

       
       

       Tornadoes in Noble County are generally rare, and do not grow to the width of the mega-tornadoes in the plain states. They stay on the ground for a few miles. While tornadoes do not occur frequently in Noble County, they can cause moderate to severe damage. Tornadoes are a countywide hazard and can affect all areas and jurisdictions.

       Should weather events become stronger under the premise of climate change, tornadoes in Ohio are anticipated to come in clusters and increase in speeds. Severity could rise by one or two categories. The formation of multiple funnels in one general front can strike multiple parts of the county simultaneously, challenging the capacity to respond and significantly increasing the damages to property, loss of property and even loss of life. The need to begin using wind-resistant building materials would help property on the periphery of the primarily damaged area, but would not save property that is directly hit. Tornadoes can come with rain, hail, lightning, and straight-line winds, so it would be reasonable to assume all of those damages may increase as well. That would result in more damage to trees, endangering green space and destroying vegetation that would take decades to replace. In a county with little change in elevation, there would be less likelihood of inconsistent damages within neighborhoods, resulting in simply more damage over the entire county.

       Stakeholders do not believe that vulnerability to tornadoes has changed in the past five years, nor has any development activity or goal changed the risk of the villages or the whole county to tornado damage. There has not been a recorded tornado since 1998.

       Local Tornado History

       Noble County has experienced rare tornadic activity with only three events listed in the storm events database. The worst tornado was an EF-4 in 1998 when a death occurred after a mobile home in the Summerfield area was hit. There is little other information available due to the infrequency with which tornadoes strike Noble County.

       Table 2-40: Noble County Tornado History

       Hazard	Total Incidents	Total Property Loss	Total Crop Loss	Total Deaths	Total Injuries	Average Loss/Incident
       Tornado	3	$327.5K	0	1	1	$109.16K

       
       

       Ohio ranks among the top states in injuries, fatalities, and property damage from tornado events. Recently, Ohio is one of the states with the most frequent, highest numbers of tornadoes in 2024. While it is believed that new and more effective detection is responsible for some increase in the number of recorded tornadoes, it is believed that there were significantly

       more tornadoes in 2024. There have also been more incidents with multiple tornadoes and funnel clouds in a given area that in years past. That activity, however, is concentrated in the northern and central areas of Ohio, and southeast Ohio is not frequently affected.

   12. Utility Failure

       Utility Failure refers to the absence of a utility such as electric, water, or communications signals, as well as gas, natural gas or other services. The service may be absent due to a lack of generation or supply, or due to quality issues that make the resource unusable, or a distribution problem due to breaks or disrepair of overhead lines, pipelines or equipment. One of the most concerning issues with utilities is that the infrastructure to distribute the commodity is not easily replaced if damage is catastrophic. Long-term outages present totally different obstacles and issues than outages that are temporary, even if temporary means a week or so.

       1. Electrical Power Outage

          An electrical power outage is a short-term or long-term loss of electric power to a particular area. Power failures can be caused by natural events, such as damage to transmission lines caused by high winds, or non-natural events. Electro-magnetic pulses caused by severe solar storms can interfere with power transmission if the energy from flares on the sun reach local earth surfaces. Non-natural contributors to power system failures can include equipment failure, transformer failure, animals, vandalism, or intentional damage. Systems failures can range from a temporary outage of less than a few hours to long-term, multi-day outages. Short-term outages are inconvenient but generally not a significant risk to the community.

          Outages that last for several days, to months or more, however, can cause major disruption and harm to a community as compensatory capabilities are stretched beyond resources. Fuel sources for generators, the ability for generators to carry out all power-based critical services, and the stress of being power-deficient cause human suffering and extreme inconvenience that closes businesses and inhibits daily life activities.

          While electrical system failures can occur because of a weather event or human-caused problem, breakdown of this critical utility can also occur independent of another hazard. When this happens, it is often the result of system overload or lack of improvements, updates, and maintenance to the system’s infrastructure. Residents and businesses rely on electricity to support basic daily functions. When the system fails or service is interrupted, the effects are felt immediately. Populations with special needs, including children, the elderly, and those with serious medical conditions, suffer the most during electrical system failures.

          Power failures do not generally cause significant structural damage, but power-based equipment and electronics can be damaged or ruined, depending upon how the outage occurred. The greatest risk for physical damage is from broken distribution lines, poles, and substations. The most significant impact is the hardship for the people and businesses affected by the outage, including the potential economic impact. If businesses are unable to operate for several days or longer until power is restored, the negative effect would quickly ripple across the community. Individual losses are generally limited to the loss of food that must be refrigerated, and perhaps medicines stored at home that require cooling. The loss of air conditioning for people with respiratory conditions can

          be life-threatening, and without a long-term capability to operate medical equipment, those with serious medical needs are at risk of dying.

          
          

          A long-term outage, lasting months, potentially due to major disruption or destruction of the power grid, could be devastating. The activities of daily living are dependent upon electricity for most people, and only those able to survive in the most austere conditions would come through a long-term outage successfully.

          
          

          People and businesses rely on electrical systems to support essential services and basic daily functions. Without power, telecommunications, utilities, public works, and other critical systems are non-functional. If backup power generation is available, some systems may be maintained, at least on a partial basis.

          Power outages are a countywide hazard and can affect all areas and jurisdictions.

          Power providers are listed in Table 2-12 on page 2-11, and are again discussed in “Energy Lifeline” starting on page 2-89. Generally speaking, as stated in the lifeline section, outages are short in duration in Noble County. An unquantified number of residents have generators, and although some public generators need repairs and replacement due to age, there is a basic capability to provide essential services through generator power. Extended outages provide the greatest vulnerability because there would be difficulty in providing long-term, widespread shelters or warming/cooling stations across the county. Most shelters identified by Red Cross are not generator-equipped. Most of the public schools have some generator capacity, but tend to be more critical-component capable than overall total facility capable.

          
          

          Vulnerability to a lack of power could increase with climate change as more demand is placed upon the power grid, and outages cause more discomfort. If temperatures rise in the summer to above 90 (F), especially in a heat wave of several days or weeks, people with medical problems will require air conditioning at an increasing rate. This will be a widespread issue, placing regions at risk for power failure or the need to “brown-out” power for conservation of generation capabilities. More severe storms may place more debris on power lines, interrupting service more unless additional measure to mitigation pole damages is implemented. Power companies may have to use damage-resistant poles, transformers and sub-stations at all locations should a significant change in storm characteristics take place.

          Buried power lines may be required in more places, adding cost to home and business construction.

          
          

          Development could have an effect on power outages as the demand for electricity increases. With an already-burdened power grid, the overall demand for more power could be detrimental unless there are regional plans to increase the capacity of the power grid. Charging electric vehicles, powering additional layers of technology, and providing power for an increasing number of homes and businesses could overwhelm the capacity to create energy.

          One of the biggest challenges many Ohio communities face today is the addition of large data centers to their area. These centers place extreme demands upon both electrical and water

          systems to power the facilities, and for water to use in cooling their equipment. While Noble County is not aware of any development of this type, this could be a developing hazard.

          
          

          Local Power Failure History

          Noble County has experienced some extended power outages but there were no indications that this is confined to a specific area of the county. While power was generally described as “highly dependable”, an equipment or weather event could change that reliability. Most recounts of power outages were incidental, and stakeholders reported due to an equipment failure, temporary emergency situation, or a weather event.

          
          

          While more jurisdictions have generators than five years ago, there is still a significant vulnerability to power outages. Many elderly and people who are dependent upon durable medical equipment do not have the financial ability to have a generator. Many jurisdictions need to at least add to their generator pool to be able to function well during an extended outage. Many generators are old, outdated or too small. Plans to have fuel for generators must be developed because some jurisdictions don’t have this done, putting them at risk for not being able to use generators as needed.

          Some areas in Noble County require the use of sump pumps to move storm water so it does not flood homes, businesses, and industrial areas. Some areas use pumps systems in their wastewater management to move storm water faster and more efficiently to protect homes and businesses. Some jurisdictions have enough of a need for significant power generation that a portable generating system is needed.

          
          

          On June 29, 2012, the area experienced power outages as the result of a major storm system when a derecho moved across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states. This massive storm system caused power outages across two-thirds of Ohio; more than one million people were without power, some as long as five days. Southeast Ohio was severely affected by this incident, experiencing outages that lasted for days amid very hot and humid weather.

          In the weeks preceding this plan’s completion, there were two outages affecting Noble County that were listed on the “Off the Grid” website. Approximately twenty customers were out of power on October 8 at 9:00 a.m. for several hours, and on October 20 at 8:00 a.m., there were eleven South Central Power customers out of power. Noble County has 7,409 electrical power customers, and they rank 22nd of 88 counties in Ohio for frequency of outages according to PowerOutage.com.

          
          

          Stakeholders discussed the effect rising temperatures might have amid an out-of-shape electrical grid, and the burden that increased demand for electricity puts on the generation and distribution systems. Populations in Noble County are more dependent than ever on electricity to not only meet their comfort and health needs, but also to be able to connect with caregivers, financial institutions, suppliers, and family members through digital resources and communication systems. Without functioning power, as a power grid failure or extended outage is considered, could be devastating. This is in contrast to just several years ago when

          financial transactions were done more in person than online, and when accounts were managed through paper systems instead of electronic transfers. With an aging population that has more vulnerability to heat injury, dehydration, and malnutrition, the extended loss of electricity or alternate heating and cooling systems could be very damaging.

          
          

       2. Water System Failure

       Utilities include the systems that provide basic amenities and services to the public, such as water, wastewater, storm water, and natural gas systems. These systems can be maintained by a public entity, usually a jurisdiction or cooperative agency, or by private companies. Water, wastewater, and storm water utilities are generally operated by public entities, although privately owned water systems do serve significant regions in Noble County. In rural areas, many homes receive these basic utilities through individual septic systems and water wells.

       Regardless of the type of delivery, utility systems provide critical services to the community. These systems are vulnerable to failure caused by disaster conditions or independent from any hazard or storm.

       Water System Risk Assessment

       Utility infrastructure is vulnerable to failure caused by aging system components, general system failure, overuse, and/or poor maintenance. All utility systems, even those that are well maintained can fail. These systems are incredibly expensive to maintain and must be upgraded or replaced as time goes on. As communities grow and develop, systems must be expanded to meet increasing demand. Changes in regulations also require systems to be upgraded or modified. All of this is very costly. These costs are initially the responsibility of the jurisdiction or entity that manages the system but is eventually passed on to the user through fees.

       Because of the overwhelming expense of maintaining and upgrading water and wastewater utility systems, many systems are not in good repair. Water lines are old and undersized.

       Wastewater and storm water systems that were combined when the system was originally built have not been fully separated in spite of regulations requiring this separation. Stormwater systems that were adequate when build 40 years ago are undersized to handle the amount of precipitation communities now receive. Infrastructure failure, specifically water, wastewater, and storm sewer systems, rated as a concerning hazard. Communities recognize how critical these systems are to the public and are working diligently to identify funding to upgrade and maintain their systems. These efforts include borrowing funds, applying for grants, and increasing user fees and any other funding opportunities they can identify. Because every community relies on utility infrastructure for critical services, infrastructure failure is a countywide hazard that can affect all jurisdictions and unincorporated areas of Noble County.

       
       

       Water Quality Emergency Risk Assessment

       Because a water quality emergency can occur in any source body of water, including aquifers, or water treatment facility, water quality is a countywide hazard that can affect all areas and jurisdictions. Water distribution systems are also vulnerable to water line breaks and delivery system failure, preventing treated water to be delivered to homes. When water service is

       compromised, risks to the community include public health and the economy. From a public health perspective, contaminated water can cause serious illness when consumed. Persons with special medical needs, compromised immune systems, the elderly, and children are most susceptible to this. Animals are also susceptible to illness from contaminated water. If the water supply is contaminated, residents lose access to drinking water in their homes and restaurants, grocery stores, and businesses that use water in their regular operations are forced to close until water service is restored. Failure of distribution systems has the same effect. The loss of revenue, even if only for a short duration, can have a significant economic impact. Any compromise in the water supply also affects the public’s trust of government officials. If the public is concerned about the safety of the water supply and believes local officials are not fully communicating about the issue, they may question the information provided by local officials.

       
       

       A failure in the water system can affect county residents who do not use public water. Residents who have wells and cisterns used hauled water from the public water system to supplement their own systems, which are insufficient to meet their needs. They may not live where public distribution is available, so they haul bulk water to satisfy their water needs.

       Farmers who do not have public water also haul water for both livestock and crop irrigation. When the public system fails, they are as vulnerable to the outage as the people who obtain water directly from the system.

       To protect the community’s water supply, jurisdictions must continually monitor, repair, and upgrade water treatment infrastructure and water delivery infrastructure. Because this is costly, jurisdictions must plan and budget for it. If the infrastructure is not well maintained and emergency work must be completed when an incident occurs, the economic cost is higher than completing work through ongoing maintenance and upgrades. In addition to the direct economic loss resulting from the emergency, the jurisdiction must immediately identify funds to make the repairs. These costs are often recouped through increases in the fees charged to consumers, ultimately costing residents more money through increases to water rates, user fees, and local taxes.

       
       

       Local Water Emergency History

       Noble County experienced a severe water distribution problem in 2024. A pipeline from the raw water supply to the treatment plant failed, and water was unable to reach the plant in January 2024, causing a county-wide water shutdown. Once the pipeline was replaced and service was restored, there was a long-term boil order in place to assure the safety of the water supply. This outage eliminated water supply to direct customers, and also affected those residents in rural areas and farms depend upon hauled water to meet needs that are insufficiently served by their own wells.

       
       

       Community partnerships kicked in, and several businesses joined forces with EMA and other agencies to distribute bottled water and water bottles for use with bulk water to nursing homes, residents, and others. The outages and ensuing boil alert lasted for about a week. The village made improvements to the water treatment system to prevent this from reoccurring, a plan of action that took until the fall of 2025 to complete.

       The most significant water quality emergency in Ohio occurred on August 3, 2014. Noble County was not directly impacted by this event but it did bring significant attention to water quality issues in the entire state. On August 3, microcystin from a toxic algal bloom was detected in the water supply in Toledo, Ohio, causing the water to be declared unsafe to drink. The Toledo water system supplies municipal water to approximately 400,000 people in northwest Ohio. Local emergency management and government officials scrambled to provide drinking water to the affected communities. Within hours, stores across the region sold out of bottled water as residents rushed to purchase critical water supplies. Restaurants and food service businesses were forced to close until safe water could be provided and hospitals experienced a surge of patients who believed they were ill from consuming contaminated

       water. Within three days, Toledo’s water was declared safe to drink but the economic and political ramifications lasted much longer. Without partnerships with food distribution companies and major retailers, residents would have waited 12 to 18 hours for water supplies once the local retail supply ran out early in the morning. This incident’s root cause was microsystin contamination with an inability to detect and treat that problem. Since that time, most water plants can detect and treat this contaminant.

       Noble County has not experienced a water crisis like the Toledo incident but the communities are concerned with protecting their water supply so the same kind of incident does not occur. Most expressed concerns involved brine contamination of aquifers and water supplies, and hazardous materials incidents that may affect ditches, streams, and lakes in the area. The inland lakes and reservoirs across the state have experienced toxic algal blooms and other water quality issues, even though that has not been the case with Caldwell Lake and Wolf Run Lake. Across Ohio, research is continually underway to determine the root cause of the increase in toxic algal blooms and identify actions that can be taken to reduce their occurrence. There is constant effort to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus runoff from agricultural production, landscaping treatments, and manufacturing waste. There is ongoing activity to identify and replace lead pipes that cause lead particulates to disburse into the drinking water through distribution. Reservoirs are continually monitored for corrective treatment. Compromise to the water tables through ground contamination of aquifers to road salts and other chemicals is maintained as much as possible, but unknown releases can cause exposure to harmful substances in spite of these efforts.

       Communication Signal Failure

       Today’s society in Noble County is dependent upon communication signals. This includes internet signals and cellular signals to use computers, security systems, cellular and VOIP telephones. The ability to conduct business via the internet, to make purchases of staples and emergency goods with credit cards, and the ability to communicate warnings, notifications and personal messages is all dependent upon being able to use communication signals.

       
       

       While devices may fail, and specific providers may have outages relative to their equipment and supplies, an outage of communication networks in the signal transmission phase of the process could be devastating, especially if it lasted for more than a day.

       Communication Failure

       Noble County has no history of communication signal failure; however, potential EMG forces and solar storms could make this occur. This is also a system that can be targeted by terrorists. Many communication devices like cell phones and internet are provided by commercial providers; these outages are not tracked in the public sector. It is unknown what the history of privately owned commercial communication failure is in Noble County.

   13. Windstorm

       A windstorm is a weather event with very strong winds but little to no precipitation. Wind speed in this type of event typically reaches at least 34 mph but can be any speed that causes light or greater damage to trees and buildings. Damage can be caused by gusts, which are short bursts of high-speed wind, or longer periods of sustained wind.

       A derecho is a specific type of windstorm that is widespread and fast moving. These storms can produce damaging straight-line winds over extremely large areas, sometimes spanning hundreds of miles long and more than 100 miles wide. To be defined as a derecho, the storm must produce damage over at least 240 miles, have wind gusts of at least 58 mph across most of the storm’s length, and multiple gusts of 75 mph or greater. The destruction produced by a derecho can be very similar to that from a tornado. However, the damage from this type of storm generally occurs in one direction along a straight path.

       
       

       Noble County’s combination of flat and rolling topography makes it somewhat vulnerable to damage from high winds unaccompanied by any kind of precipitation, making windstorms a countywide hazard. All areas and jurisdictions can be affected by severe wind. Where there is limited change in elevation or extensive wooded cover area to break up the effects of strong windstorms, the vulnerability increases. The wooded areas and the areas where there is ground cover have little vulnerability. Although winds in excess of 50 miles per hour can occur independently, this is uncommon. Most of the time, severe winds are part of a larger storm system. The wind occurs as precipitation and unstable air moves into the area. High winds are frequently accompanied by heavy rain, hail, ice, snow, or thunderstorms. In Noble County, wind-only incidents are rare. NCDC has eleven recorded wind-only events since 1950.

       
       

       Overall, climate change predictions to not anticipate much change in winds. Stakeholders said there is almost no damage from windstorms for the most part. Nothing in the past five years related to land use, development trends, infrastructure improvements, or regulation has changed the countywide or village vulnerability to windstorm damages.

       Local Windstorm History

       Although infrequent, high wind events can occur independent of other hazards. One of the most significant windstorms in Ohio, affecting Noble County, occurred on September 14, 2008 when the remnants of Hurricane Ike moved across Ohio. Damage across Ohio exceeded

       $500,000,000, and Noble County had $250K in property damage from that storm. A derecho in June 2013 ripped across the southern and far western parts of Ohio, leaving communities in southeast and southern Ohio without power for weeks, and without the conveniences of

       electricity amid heavy debris and structural damages. Noble County was not affected by that storm.

       
       

       There was one strong wind event listed in the NOAA database since 2019, where winds gusted to 40 knots in December of 2022. Most losses involved snow drifting and travel hazards, as it was eventually combined with extremely low temperatures and snowfall.

       Table 2-41: Noble County Windstorm History

       Hazard	Total Incidents	Total Property Loss	Total Crop Loss	Total Deaths	Total Injuries	Average Loss/Incident
       Strong Winds	2	$10.00K	0	0	0	$5.00K
       High Wind	9	$446.00K	$0	0	0	$49.555K

   14. Winter Storm

       A winter storm is a weather event that includes several winter weather hazards, such as extremely cold temperatures, wind, snowfall, sleet, ice, or freezing rain. These storms can develop anytime between late fall and early spring.

       An ice storm is a specific type of winter weather event. An ice storm occurs when temperatures fluctuate as precipitation falls and rainfall becomes freezing rain or sleet as temperatures drop. This can cause ice to form on trees, utility lines, roadways, and other surfaces and lead to power outages, downed trees, and hazardous road conditions.

       
       

       A blizzard is the most serious type of winter storm; it is characterized by sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or greater and falling or blowing snow that reduces visibility to less than ¼ mile. Both of these conditions must be present for at least three hours for the event to be considered a blizzard.

       Extremely cold temperatures can also be a winter weather hazard, with or without the presence of snowfall, ice, or other hazards. While there is no exact definition for “extreme cold”, these incidents are characterized by extended, multi-day periods of air temperatures or wind chills well below freezing. In Noble County, the coldest month, January, has an average low temperature of 22 degrees Fahrenheit and an average high of 36 degrees Fahrenheit. An extreme cold event would be temperatures at or below this level for an extended period of time.

       
       

       Severe winter storms are frequent in Ohio, and the specific components of each storm is dependent upon the weather conditions at the time. Winter temperatures can be mild and relatively warm (above freezing), or they can fall below zero and stay there for several days. A season may include several fluctuations between cold and warm spells, or a winter may be relatively constant.

       A non-blizzard winter storm event often begins with warmer air followed by very cold temperatures and heavy precipitation. Because weather systems move into Ohio from the

       south and west, initially warm air can cause temperatures to hover at the freezing mark, causing ¼ “to ½” ice (or more) to form on roads, trees, electrical lines, gutters and roofs, and vegetation as precipitation starts out as freezing rain and/or sleet. As the temperatures drop, precipitation becomes snow that adheres to the ice and forms heavy clumps of wet snow that brings power lines, trees, vegetation, and roof gutters down. As fronts move through and winds kick up, while temperatures drop, the heavy falling snow drifts across roads, ice damages trees and buildings, and travel is seriously difficult. This type storm drops 4-6 inches of heavy, wet snow over the county.

       
       

       An alternate version of an Ohio severe winter storm begins with extremely cold weather (below 10 degrees Fahrenheit) and heavy snowfall, high winds, and extreme cold. A severe storm of this nature would likely pack sustained winds of 15-25 miles per hour, over ten inches of snow, and temperatures below ten degrees Fahrenheit for more than 24 hours. This kind of storm can easily dump excessive snow on Noble County and disrupt daily activities for several days.

       Because the ice is not part of this kind of storm, damages are generally less as power lines are not destroyed and structural damage is not severe. However, the amount of snow is challenging in light of the extreme low temperatures. The snow tends to be fluffy and creates deep snow drifts and blocks roads.

       The greatest risk associated with winter storms is the loss of utilities. The elderly and young children are most at risk. When medications, health equipment, and food supplies cannot reach destinations, these populations endure the greatest hardship. Winter storms of this magnitude are relatively rare. Most winter storms are a temporary inconvenience that makes residents uncomfortable. It is extremely rare for casualties to occur, with the exception of traffic accidents that result from dangerous road conditions.

       
       

       Blizzards and winter storms that close county roads and make ingress and egress impossible for more than a few hours can be costly for the livestock farmers in Noble County. Livestock, such as beef cattle, pigs, and poultry, require feed to be delivered to the farms frequently. Closed roads and inaccessible barns can cause animals to die for lack of fresh food. Utility outages stop automatic feeders and other electrical equipment on the farms, further extending the damages related to blizzards. Livestock can freeze to death, die of dehydration when water supplies are frozen, and starve when food isn’t accessible.

       Severe winter weather is a risk across Ohio. All areas of the state are susceptible to winter storms that bring heavy snow, high winds, and/or ice. These storms range from short, mild bursts of snow and ice to cold snaps with significant snowfall that last several days. In Noble County, winter storms are a countywide hazard and can affect all areas and jurisdictions. The most common winter storms include a combination of multiple winter weather hazards, such as ice and snowfall. The ice begins to accumulate as temperatures fall before turning to snow, creating a layer of ice under the snowfall. Sleet and ice make roadways slick and dangerous, increasing the potential for vehicular accidents. Road crews are challenged to clear snow and ice from roadways and maintain safe transportation routes for residents.

       Ice storms can occur independent of other winter weather hazards but this is not common. If temperatures hover near the freezing point, precipitation can freeze and accumulate on trees and power lines. This can lead to power outages when the branches and lines can break.

       Extremely cold temperatures can occur without other accompanying winter weather hazards but this is relatively rare. When it does occur, the incident is generally of a short duration and is an inconvenience to residents and businesses. Little physical damage generally occurs to buildings or infrastructure.

       
       

       Noble County typically experiences a few winter weather events every year, although stakeholders felt that the frequency and severity of winter storms is diminishing. These incidents are rarely severe enough to cause property damage.

       Noble County has experienced 39 winter events since 1950, per NCDC records, that include blizzard, cold/wind chill, extreme cold or wind chill, ice storm, heavy snow, sleet, winter storm or winter weather. Only three of these incidents was considered an ice storm, and two were classified as cold or extreme cold events; there were several classified as heavy snow, but none met the criteria for a blizzard.

       Because climate change predictions call for warmer temperatures, Ohio is anticipating less snow and ice. The diminishing severity of winter would potentially affect the growing season, extending it slightly before and after traditional times. The warmer, wetter winters may initially result in higher farm yields and new crops to northwest Ohio, but eventual increases in temperatures beyond comfort zones may negate that effect. The hibernation habits of some wildlife may lead to changes in those populations and a negative impact on nuisance damages they cause or their unwelcome presence in communities when fewer and fewer die during long, hard winters.

       
       

       The past five years’ vulnerability to winter storms and blizzards has not changed. Considering any development, land use changes, regulations or infrastructure changes, none have affected the likelihood or degree of damages experienced due to winter storms.

       Local Winter Storm History

       Most winter events in Noble County involve moderate snowfall but when combined with winds, it results in blowing and drifting snow. Plowing roads keeps crews busy all day and night long, and most injuries are associated with plowing, blowing or shoveling snow to clear sidewalks and private properties. Vehicular accidents are more frequent on icy and snowy roads, especially on interstate highways where various types of vehicles use the same roadway and have differing capabilities to navigate their vehicles given the hazards. Sometimes narrow, county roads can be blocked and hard to navigate in a different way. On occasion there may be a flat roof that is damaged by snow load, especially when the storm occurs in warmer winter conditions and the snow is heavy and wet. Many times, the costs of the storm are measured in inconvenience and discomfort, and once in a while, by deaths or injuries.

       For much of Ohio, the most significant historical winter weather event is the Blizzard of 1978. Southeast Ohio was one of the most severely impacted areas by this storm. On January 26, 1978, two low-pressure systems combined over Ohio to produce record-breaking snowfall, winds of up to 70 mph, and extremely low temperatures. In the Dayton area, for example, slightly over a foot of snow fell on top of the twelve inches already on the ground from a previous snowfall. The high winds caused blowing and drifting so severe that roads were impassable and buildings were buried. Roads were impassable for almost a week, forcing businesses and schools to close until roads could be cleared. Throughout the region, residents opened their homes to stranded motorists and neighbors helped one another dig out from the blizzard. To date, this remains the worst winter weather event on record in Ohio, resulting in 51 deaths across the state and the call-out of 5,000 Ohio National Guardsmen to assist communities. According to the Zanesville Times Recorder, southeast Ohio was one of the hardest hit areas, needing assistance from 115 National Guardsmen to clear 22 inches of snow from the hilly roads and highways in Muskingum County. Three hundred residents were evacuated from homes due to lack of heat in the frigid temperatures and high winds.

       
       

       The Blizzard of “78 does not appear in the NOAA Storm events Database. As the people who remember the incident become less and less, the first-hand accounts of the worst blizzard to hit Ohio are diminishing. The storm that began as rain, sleet and ice, causing thundersnow and lightning during the night as barometric pressure dropped lower than most hurricanes and temperatures plummeted by 30 degrees or more, is fading from memory in many households.

       
       

       Most stakeholders felt that recent winters have been milder than in the past. Snow amounts have seemed lower, and the cold snaps have been shorter and less severe. They cited loss of power as a high concern, and road closures as difficult. Extreme cold was cited as a problem.

       
       

       Table 2-42: Noble County Winter Storm History

       Hazard	Total Incidents	Total Property Loss	Total Crop Loss	Total Deaths	Total Injuries	Average Loss/Incident
       Winter Storm	13	$5K	0	0	0	>$1K
       Winter Weather	14	0	0	0	0	0
       Blizzard	0	0	0	0	0	0
       Heavy Snow	8	$200K	0	0	2	$25K
       Extreme Cold	2	0	0	0	0	0
       Ice Storm	3	$6.0K	0	0	0	$2K
       Cold/Wind Chill	2	$0	0	0	0	0
       Sleet	0	0	0	0	0	0

2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

   While the committee developed a countywide prioritization that includes hazard consequences in the unincorporated areas of the county (townships and neighborhoods) as well as the including the municipalities in their conclusions, the municipalities took into account only their individual jurisdictional perspective on each hazard. Therefore, county mitigation strategies were based on the vulnerabilities of the entire county as well as those associated with the

   unincorporated areas like townships and rural neighborhoods. The municipal strategies were based upon the municipality only.

   
   

   Social Vulnerability Assessment

   Noble County is susceptible to social losses and resiliency challenges. Identification of those who need extra help in the wake of disasters can be difficult in rural communities because of resistance to asking for help, strong desires for independence, and less obvious external signs of need. Many people simply do not want to ask for help, even if they need it badly. Those who endure residential instability or borderline homelessness, a lack of dependable transportation, or the need for extensive healthcare and treatment are often silent populations in Noble County. With an aging population common to most rural areas in the state, and underserved and disabled populations who would need extra help, Noble County social services and advocacy groups could be overwhelmed by a large-scale incident in spite of the fact that people across the county willingly step up and help one another. Because the county has a smaller population than most other counties, some social programs and public services are delivered by joint agencies that serve the southeastern region. Mental health boards, disability boards, and community action commissions are typically multi-county organizations. In Noble County, much of the healthcare is provided in nearby Cambridge, although some practitioners are based in Caldwell and outlying communities.

   
   

   Although the culture of rural populations is one of significant self-reliance and self-sufficiency, Noble County lacks public services like mass transit options, food distribution programs, behavioral health resources, and services for children and elderly in high demand situations. If a large portion of the population is negatively affected by a widespread disaster, there will be a shortage of volunteers to staff the response, and organizations like Red Cross may set up shelters and services in centralized areas instead of in individual communities. The fact that Noble County villages have less than 300 residents makes them exceptionally likely to receive regional assistance. Service centers would most likely be established in Caldwell or Cambridge, again requiring transportation for intake and services, something local residents may struggle to do under extreme circumstances. Some services may be provided as far away as Zanesville or Athens.

   
   

   Noble County is likely to experience resource gaps in any large-scale disaster, just as any other rural county would experience. As a small county with significant rural population, first responders are volunteers who have limited availability and equipment. Depending upon the time of day when a disaster strikes, many of these volunteers may not be available because they are at their fulltime jobs, perhaps outside Noble County. While many volunteer firefighters, EMTs and other responders work inside the county, their daytime obligation is to their employer. They sometimes wear emergency response hats at that full-time employer’s location, and therefore cannot, even with special laws supporting volunteerism in Ohio, leave their jobs to respond. Special response resources and additional crews accessed through mutual aid may not be close by when needed, or may be tied up responding to other areas.

   Unless an incident is limited in impact to Noble County, they are unlikely to command a

   remarkable response from higher levels of government. They could easily find the county alone in serving its own catastrophic needs.

   
   

   Noble County is filled with community-minded active individuals who often wear multiple hats. The church volunteer may also be the township trustee who also works for the county highway department. The village fire chief or mayor may also work out of town, and when home, fill various roles as school volunteer, church leader, and be the parent of several children with a spouse who also works out of the county. This places an extreme burden on volunteer capacity, first responder capacity, and overall ability to be self-sufficient in times of need.

   
   

   The churches of Noble County are a major support system and may be tasked with assisting county residents in many types of disasters. The church buildings range in size from very small to large, and would easily be used as shelters and community centers.

   
   

   
   

   Photograph of Belle Valley church taken by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

   
   

   The vulnerabilities in Noble County are nearly the same today as in past years. There have been few changes in comprehensive planning, land use planning or regulation that affect the individual or collective risk analysis. The county is decreasing slightly in population, and although there are a few new businesses, those often use structures that housed a business that ceased to operate. The development trends and goals are not ones that will likely increase vulnerability unless hydraulic fracturing or gas and oil drilling increases significantly. New data centers could pose a problem with utility resources. However, given those do not occur, creating affordable housing, increasing broadband access, identifying sustainable agricultural practices, improving infrastructure, filling transportation gaps, and improving regulations are actions that will lessen vulnerability and improve resiliency.

   
   

   All this taken into account, Noble County is highly resilient. Their work ethic and self-sufficiency are significant, and they are generally highly participatory in meeting their own needs. They have a strong tendency to take care of their neighbors. Their community is resourceful and willing to help neighbors, as are populations in the municipalities. They have the ability and desire to make the most of the resources they have, and to provide the leadership and inspiration for their own recovery.

   1. Underserved Populations and Social Vulnerability Considerations

      According to Data USA (https://datausa.io/profile/geo/Noble-county-oh), Noble County median value of housing is valued at $149,300 which is about half the national average value. When housing markets were sometimes doubling in value in 2019 and 2020 elsewhere in the United States, Noble County homeowners saw the value of their property rise less abruptly than in other metropolitan areas. The home ownership rate in Noble County is 82%, compared to a national average of 64.8%.

      
      

      The percentage of residents living below the poverty line is 11.7%, slightly below the national average of 12.4%. Seniors over 65 years old are the largest group living in poverty. The most common ethnic group affected by poverty is White.

      Approximately 7.2% of the county’s residents have no health insurance.

      
      

      Discussions included identification of services that assist persons with emotional, mental and addiction needs. The Muskingum Area Board of Mental Health and Recovery Services oversees and funds some mental health services in Noble County. They are able to identify providers, services and facilities for county residents. There are crisis counseling and service providers, therapists for behavioral, mental and emotional conditions, and addiction services. There are multiple support groups for various situations. Some services are provided within Noble County, but others are delivered online or at locations in one of the other counties.

      
      

      The Altercare Senior Services provides services for the elderly in the county and operates Summit Acres. Buckeye Hills Regional Council provides transportation planning and assistance, as well as senior citizen assistance and coordination. Nobles County CARES provides assistance for numerous groups of individuals and others through community alliances and organizations. Noble County Veterans Service Commission provides referrals and assistance through local organizations for veterans of the United States Armed Forces.

      The Noble County Board of Developmental Disabilities provides assistance for children and adults with disabilities. These include early intervention, autism and sensory resources, community education and outreach, and service and support assistance. They provide a full scope of services that includes academic, vocational, social, physical, and emotional support.

   2. Demographic Risk Assessment Tools

      Recently created by the federal government, various tools exist online to assist is assessment of risks and vulnerabilities in the United States. Tools that were used for information include the National Risk Index and Neighborhoods at Risk developed by Headwaters Economics, among others.

      
      

      Census Tract to Political Jurisdiction Comparison

      Many online assessment tools utilize census tracts rather than political jurisdictions because statistics are collected by the US Census Bureau and categorized into census tracts. While census tracts sometimes include an entire township or municipality, most times they are not

      consistent with those boundaries. To aid in understanding of vulnerability information and to apply it to the mitigation strategies created in this planning activity, the following chart gives and understanding of what political jurisdictions are included in specific census tracts.

      Unincorporated area names and census area names have been included in the description to help understand the neighborhoods that are grouped together. The National Risk Index overall ratings are included to create a quick visual assessment of relative vulnerability throughout the county, and to further understanding of comparative analysis of a countywide perspective.

      
      

      Census tracts are used to identify characteristics of similarly populated areas. Each census area in Noble County has been assessed for the following general characteristics, as shown in the table below. There are only four census tracts in Noble County.

      Table 2-43 Census Tract Demographics

      Characteristic	9683	9684.01	9684.02	9685
      Population	3,942	4.695	2,597	3,018
      Population > 65 y/o	1,165	1,621	251	851
      Households without a car	131	162	54	103
      People with Disabilities	636	942	94	727
      Homes Exposed to Wildfire	99.5%	100%	100%	99.9%
      Properties at Flood Risk	12.8%	17.1%	10%	19.3%
      Area in a Floodplain	8.2%	5.3%	19.7%	2.4%
      Area with Little Tree Canopy	47.7%	53%	74.9%	36.6%
      Percentage of Impervious area – related to heat	1%	2.8%	12.4%	0.7%

      Each census tract includes some of the villages. Village incorporation lines may not be the same as census area lines, but most are very close. In Noble County, the villages are not split between two census areas. While many counties will have many more census areas than Noble County, the low population provides the basis for geographically large areas.

      
      

      Census area designations are not used for much at a local level except for demographic segregation of characteristics for planning purposes, and for voter issues in conducting and analyzing the outcomes of elections. Representation is based upon census areas.

      
      

      Table 2-44: Noble County Census Tract Descriptions

      Census Tract Number	Included Political Jurisdictions
      9683	This includes the northern and north-eastern townships, including the villages of Summerfield, Sarahsville, and Batesville
      9684.01	This includes Belle Valley and Caldwell, and areas as far south as Dudley
      9684.02	This includes a relatively small area on the southwest side of Caldwell and Belle Valley near the unincorporated community of Sharon along I-77 in Olive Township.
      9685	This includes the western and southern townships of Noble County, including Dexter City

      Map 2-12: Noble County Census Area Map

      
      

      National Risk Index

      The National Risk Index (NRI) was released in 2021. It can be found online at https://hazards.fema.gov/nri and a report was created for fifteen census tracts in Noble County. Note that census tracts do not align with political jurisdictions, so the relationship between the county, municipalities and townships in this plan is not consistent with the individual areas identified as census tracts.

      This geospatial tool assesses risks and vulnerability for all counties across the USA. The NRI estimates the likelihood that a given hazard may strike a specific area, and then estimates the value of property, daily activities, or lives lost in a worst-case scenario. It also views losses in the context of social vulnerability, taking into account factors like economic status, disabilities, or other special needs. The NRI then assesses the community resilience based upon community characteristics and threat levels. The extensions then can be combined to draw estimates and conclusions about how a specific community may fare, and what needs may be, after a disaster occurs. The NRI is an overall, comprehensive assessment and does not always interface perfectly with local input obtained from stakeholders in mitigation planning meetings. The NRI is useful for property and social vulnerabilities in a monetized manner.

      This tool did not include avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, or volcanic activity in the risks for Noble County’s census tracts. It did include cold wave, drought, earthquake, hail, heat wave, hurricane, ice storm, landslide, lightning, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornado, wildfire, and winter weather as applicable hazards. The stakeholders disagreed that hurricane is relevant to Noble County. They argued that should the remnants of a hurricane reach Noble County, it has neither the magnitude nor the severity it has when classified as a hurricane or a tropical depression, and therefore becomes heavy rain, high winds, or thunderstorms when it reaches Ohio.

      
      

      The census tracts in Noble County were assessed on the NRI as “Very Low” risk with reference to vulnerability to natural hazards. This data is expressed in the national context, comparing the local community to the national averages. Obviously, the low population in Noble County skews that rating toward a lower result. Additionally, compared to the rest of the country, Noble County’s anticipated annual loss is very low, social vulnerability is rated at relatively moderate, and community resilience is rated as relatively low. While this data gives a very broad picture of how Noble County compares to other counties, especially in a national context, there were disagreements with some of the overall conclusions. The NRI assessment of social vulnerability was seen as overstated and community resilience as understated. This is likely due to the low population in Noble County as compared to greater metropolitan areas and highly concentrated populated areas in the national perspective. Since many services to the population are delivered with an office base in another city outside Noble County, the statistical perception is that those services are not available and do not exist. That is inaccurate. While, for example, taxi services do not exist nor does a meal-delivery service do business in the county, neighbors are willing to help one another in this way, in contrast to metropolitan cultures where neighbors do not help neighbors in this way. There are also individual vendors who are very likely to meet unusual disaster needs by delivering meals or supplies, whereas in a city, this would not occur.

      Speaking in the context of the county and its management of disaster consequences, stakeholders felt that their localized perspectives were more accurate, and more in sync with local capabilities to respond and serve survivors. However, the exposure and expected annual loss numbers were evaluated to be accurate and relevant. A summary of countywide data is expressed in both 05 National Risk Index Noble County and 06 NRI Exposure and Expected annual Loss Tables appendices. This Information is also discussed and/or referenced in various parts of the narratives.

      Neighborhoods at Risk by Headwaters Economics

      This tool provides census tract information about vulnerable people and neighborhoods, and provides projections regarding climate change. This will allow identification of underserved populations and persons with special or extra needs by census tract within the county. This could include elderly, elderly living alone, medically disabled of any age, single-parent families with children, people living in poverty, and an array of other circumstances, permanent or temporary. Significant and applicable findings that cause groups to be more vulnerable to disaster loss are shown in the following table. These are only the ones tracked statistically, and may not include many people who would need assistance.

      Table 2-45: Special Populations

      Characteristic	Population	US Average
      Families in Poverty	7.1%	8.7%
      Families with Children in poverty	2.5%	6.2%
      Single mother families in poverty	1.6%	3.7%
      Income below SNAP threshold	n/a	n/a
      Occupied Rental Homes	18.1%	35.0%
      Occupied Mobile Homes	16.0%	5.1%
      Hispanics	1.3%	19.0%
      Lack English speaking fluency	0.5%	4.2%
      Over 65 years old	27.3%	16.8%
      Over 80 years old	3.3%	1.9%
      Under 5 years old	4.9%	5.7%
      No High School Diploma	14.7%	10.6%
      Over 65 y/o living alone	23.7%	11.6%
      Single female + children	3.9%	7.4%
      No Car households	9.8%	8.3%
      Persons with disabilities	20.0%	13.0%
      Persons without health insurance	7.2%	8.6%

      
      

      Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT)

      This portal allows the user to obtain detailed resource information about the community, and to identify places and services that would be helpful after a disaster. Users can obtain specific information, like addresses, of the identified resources. It provides the following information.

      
      

      Table 2-46: RAPT Analysis of Population

      Resource or Facility	Number
      Fire Stations	3
      Law Enforcement Stations	1
      Mobile Home Parks	1
      Public & Private School Buildings	4
      Colleges & Universities & Vocational Schools	0
      SNAP Authorized Retailers	11
      Hospitals (General)	0
      Long Term Care Facilities	1
      Pharmacies	2
      Wastewater Treatment Plants	1

      
      

      This tool will allow emergency managers to instantly spot resources and identify the address of various important sites. The demographic data will enable decision-makers to determine the methods of warnings and notifications, shelters, and other special services for underserved populations.

      
      

      Summary

      These various pieces of data are mostly consistent from one tool to another, and most find their foundational information in the 2020 US Census. There was some discussion about the accuracy of the conclusions, mostly as it related to the actual vulnerability and resilience of the areas. While overall information has been listed in this section, specific community-based data

      will appear in each community’s vulnerability statement because every community is slightly different. Overall, these tools provide a solid method for Noble County to identify likely locations of urgent need based upon demographic information, and can quickly identify underserved populations that need extra effort and critical resources rapidly when a serious incident occurs.

   3. Comprehensive Social Vulnerability and Capability Assessment

      Social vulnerability was rated as “relatively moderate” for Noble County. The lack of widespread community resources appears to contribute to social vulnerability ratings in Noble County. The circumstance that many social services and supports are provided by entities not based in Noble County seems to affect their ratings. However, during and after any significant disaster event, local stakeholders believe that a full spectrum of needed assistance would be readily available. A community wide response to a catastrophic incident would require support of the lifelines that provide food, water, and shelter as well as household items and personal items. The health and medical lifeline would probably need to provide additional services, including both physical and behavioral health resources. As is true in any extremely rural neighborhood, the repairs and replacement of structures and equipment after a destructive event would be significant. The structures in these areas would likely be more vulnerable to fire, wind, and water damage, rendering the structures uninhabitable to a greater degree than other locations.

      
      

      Sheltering for residents when displaced from their homes is a significant vulnerability for all of Noble County, as a countywide problem. For those families that live in mobile homes, and due to a generalized widespread shortage of adequate housing, it would be difficult to house great numbers of residents. There are not a lot of buildings that exist with the capacity to provide long-term residential services for large numbers of people. If schools were not in session, the two public schools would be the logical and ready choice for sheltering. A need for this during the school year, when school was able to be in session, would add to the difficulties. Finding long-term housing solutions would be a challenge, and building new structures would likely take too much time. Without an array of temporary housing options, Noble County could easily struggle to maintain the shelter lifeline in a catastrophic event.

      
      

      Historically Red Cross has provided sheltering capabilities using local churches and other public facilities. However, churches across the state are at risk of closing because church participation has decreased over recent years, and those facilities without air conditioning and generators may not be able to be used. The liability for facilities has increased, and provides a strong disincentive to congregations to open their doors to shelter people. Historically, churches have also fed the masses, and they have funded utility bills and rent deposits and provided other financial and household support for disaster victims. With many residents likely to not have a strong church affiliation, that reduces the connection between disaster survivors and church resources. Red Cross is suffering from a lack of volunteers, just like other organizations, and they are sometimes hard pressed to operate shelters in rural communities. This is especially relevant in more remotely located counties like Noble that are quite a distance from metropolitan chapters that have more resources. The void in capability includes not only a lack

      of facilities that are suitable, with shower, feeding and sleeping areas as well as generator power, but also includes the supplies and volunteers to operate shelters. There are schools that are well-equipped and likely to be available, but there are no supplies or trained volunteers to run them without Red Cross involvement. EMAs are not sufficiently funded for them to pick up the costs of a mass care operation, although they could likely muster up the expertise and ability to operate a shelter if need be.

      Stakeholders discussed non-English speaking workers who are located many Ohio counties through various employment programs. Noble County is not highly populated by temporary or permanent foreign workers, or by migrant laborers who reside permanently in other states.

      Although communication with some truckers can be challenging because they come from a base far away from Noble County, the stakeholders did not feel language provides much of a barrier locally. Most individuals with English language difficulty would probably be travelers on Interstate 77.

      Local schools and county Job and Family Services work with homeless and economically disadvantaged residents. All schools have a designated person who works with homeless students and children. All have intervention specialists who work with students that have special needs or social vulnerability.

      
      

      Group homes that house individuals with disabilities are not easily identified and located. There was no estimated number of these homes shared in meetings, nor was any number of clients shared. Recovery houses are sponsored and serviced by licensed organizations, and are more easily located, when necessary, through the local mental health board and the disabilities board. Relocation for the individuals is problematic due to individual needs as well as a lack of transportation. In spite of providing robust senior services and assistance programs, elder abuse and neglect numbers are on the rise, and this is another situation that would not be improved or lessened in the wake of a disaster. There are no registered recovery homes on the Ohio Department of Health website for Noble County.

      Stakeholders summarized populations at most risk as first, the elderly. All agencies that serve the elderly reported an increase in services provided and requests for even more services.

      While these agencies meet regularly and network on a daily basis, it is impossible to meet all needs and service requests. They see consistently increasing isolation and hardship in elderly individuals, couples and families. While an informal network of residents looks out for each other in a community like Noble County, and younger ones check in on older ones, keeping up is getting harder every day. In a disaster, this could be overwhelming. Even though Noble County is a very resilient area because neighbors help neighbors, the egress of younger generations is negatively impacting this at a rate slower than neighboring counties. Some homes and farmsteads are being purchased or rented by people moving in from other areas who are not as friendly and familiar as they used to be.

      
      

      Children, especially those with special needs, fill the second group of special concerns because finding the services to help them is difficult and sometimes dependent upon agencies based

      outside the county. Healthcare stakeholders reported that the number of grandparents raising small children is notable, and this is increasing every day. Many families with children do not own their own home, and the high rental numbers make those residents at risk for deteriorating and deficient housing, adding to their disadvantage. The health department provides vaccinations for all children and provides local clinics in many communities to help, but there are many other areas of need for the children in the county. Abuse and neglect statistics are on the rise in general, and this will only get worse in a disaster.

      
      

      The economically impoverished have challenges in obtaining necessary life-sustaining services too. Just over 7.2% of the population has no healthcare coverage and are expected to self-pay for care. These are often those who can least afford to do that, so they go without healthcare. Social services staff reported that more and more families are giving up health insurance to be able to pay for necessities. With many families falling under the SNAP benefit threshold level, that is easy to understand. Reduced benefits for behavioral healthcare impacts this as well, and prevents many people with emotional and mental health problems or addictions from requesting and obtaining care. None of those issues improve under the stress of disasters, and stakeholders anticipate this being a problem area should there be a large-scale incident.

      In summary, stakeholders reported that social needs are remaining fairly stable in Noble County. While providers felt they are “keeping up”, they said that federal funding for underserved and disadvantaged populations needs to keep increasing for them to continue adequate services. In the event of a disaster, these needs will all be amplified, and they doubt that current funding will begin to meet the actual needs.

      
      

      Disaster sheltering is a concern should there be a widespread, regional need for overnight shelter operations. Red Cross is far less active in Noble County than in years past, and has very limited numbers of local volunteers. A regional disaster would be difficult for them to staff.

      Should a widespread incident like a power outage cause mass evacuations and sheltering, Noble County would have to rely upon churches and schools to provide neighborhood shelter locations, but the equipment for shelters would be a challenge without enough Red Cross resources. Collaboration between ARC and the EMA would be critical.

      Fire and EMS service in Noble County is provided by volunteer departments. The average age of the volunteers is ever-increasing, and is probably an average of 55-60 years old now.

      Younger people are not joining fire departments as steadily as they used to for a variety of reasons, and when they do, it is hard to keep young firefighters in Noble County. Volunteerism is at an all-time low in fire service in the entire State of Ohio. Retention of fire officers is incredibly difficult. People work out of the county, they work long hours, their jobs do not accommodate leaving to fight a fire or respond to a disaster. Daytimes when volunteers are working are exceptionally difficult to staff, and it may take five different departments to fight a house fire nowadays. Because volunteer fire and EMS personnel provide the foundation of disaster volunteers, this is a problem for rural counties like Noble.

      Providing special rescue services is extremely difficult, but some individuals do have specialized capabilities. While their personnel are full-time paid employees, they also have a hard time

      retaining workers. Training younger and newer individuals is getting harder because younger workers are not inclined to volunteer to gain experience. With this shortage in the availability of workers, it is even more difficult to find adequate numbers to train in hazardous materials response, technical rescue, or specialty areas because of the extensive training, personal commitment, and cost of outfitting an individual for specialized work. With the miles of high-speed interstate highway in Noble County, there is some concern over providing, maintaining and supporting workers who are capable of hazardous materials response. There is significant concern over water rescue capabilities with robust flood situations like they have experienced on Duck Creek and other waterways. Woodland and field fires in the county can be quickly fed by high winds and large expanses of uninterrupted forest, and quickly grow out of control.

      Having adequate personnel and special equipment to handle wildland firefighting is a challenge. The bottom line is that there isn’t enough funding for adequate staff, equipment and supplies. Large ticket items like field trucks, rescue boats, and hazmat trailers are difficult to come by for these departments.

      
      

      EMS Services experience the same difficulties as fire service, and struggle to fund training and equipment just like their counterparts in fire departments. Because two house fires or multiple EMS calls at one time could overwhelm county resources, they have aggressively developed and utilized mutual aid agreements with surrounding counties. They use the statewide mutual aid programs as well, and rely upon regional specialty resources for unique or high-tech needs. They use the structural rescue teams from Columbus and other cities. Local departments work together well, and joint operations are generally smooth and effective.

      
      

      There are basic commercial building regulations in Noble County consistent with those required by the State of Ohio. Aggressive codes have not been adopted for residential development, and commercial code compliance is inspected and enforced by the State Fire Marshal. All commercial property is required to meet State of Ohio building codes. The county does not, however, have a comprehensive and progressive set of building codes to guide post-disaster clean up and rebuilding. It would be difficult, except for the efforts of some departments, to manage widespread entrance of many contractors after a significant event to limit the opportunity for low quality work and scam providers.

      Located a drivable distance from Columbus, Noble County has many resources for supplies in disasters. Locally there is access to several building supply distributors that could provide adequately for the county. There are multiple distribution centers within driving distance for major retailers in Columbus, and those are utilized to provide life-sustaining supplies and equipment. Various warehouses and distribution centers are located in the central part of Ohio.

      
      

      Medical resources for resilience come mostly from the Columbus area, and perhaps from Zanesville or Cambridge. Medical helicopters come from Columbus serve the county. Ground transport services are in place to assist with patient movement. Multiple providers of durable medical equipment and medical supplies are available, and many in proximity to Noble County,

      making service during disasters feasible. The healthcare coalition would be a key resource in finding and utilizing medical resources.

      
      

      The county has some generators on hand for extended power outages, but some are perhaps worn enough that stressful use may cause them to fail. The number of generators is adequate so long as they operate without repairs or replacement so long as everything works when plugged in. Amateur radio volunteers can assist with communications when towers are down, or when power is out. Local fuel supplies are fairly redundant, but often limited to gasoline.

      The county keeps its own supply of fuel for emergencies. Replacement and repair of old generators is a concern.

      To summarize, Noble County is capable of maintaining Health and Medical and Communication Lifelines through existing resources and regular external providers. Energy Lifelines may be impeded by forces beyond Noble County’s control if power generation fails or if distribution lines are destroyed in mass. While providing food and water would likely be handled by the county, having the staff to provide organized shelters to a large portion of county residents would significantly tax the county’s ability to meet needs, but Red Cross is a potential resource for them to do this. Extensive demands on fire service and emergency medical services would be extremely difficult for the county. They have suffered from a lack of volunteers to staff fire and EMS companies, just like most other Ohio counties. Transportation Lifelines could be unmet unless the schools were able to step up and fill the void even though there is some capability within the regional transit program. Therefore, Safety and Security, Transportation, and Food, Water and Shelter Lifelines may cause some difficulty. An extensive hazardous materials incident would require responders to fully mobilize quickly, and to obtain assistance from other county departments. Noble County could call in outside resources very readily, making the Hazardous Materials Lifeline less difficult to maintain. All in all, Noble County is robust in their intent to take care of themselves, and in spite of limited resources, they believe in their resiliency and self-sufficiency. This characteristic will serve them well in any significant disaster.

   4. Noble County Vulnerability – Townships, Unincorporated Areas, Census Areas Noble County includes all the townships, census designated areas, and unincorporated communities. There is rolling terrain, covered by woodlands and farms, with winding

      waterways and rural roads providing access to all areas. These areas are governed by the Noble County Commissioners and other elected officials who participated in the mitigation planning process. Many county residents work in the county, providing necessary goods and services

      for other county residents. Major streams flow through the county, introducing the possibility of flooding and associated damage. Those hazards are assessed in the following sections, and the effects on the residents of these areas are outlined in detail. Over eighty percent of the county residents live in areas described by the section.

      
      

      
      

      Noble County Courthouse photograph by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

      
      

      Noble County stakeholders’ highest concerns include flooding and severe storms of all kinds. There are several creeks that are major waterways that flow through the entire county. Duck Creek and its branches, as well as Wills Creek and its tributaries are part of the watershed that carries rainwater and natural drainage away. In a rural county where most areas are not served by wastewater services, natural drainage is critical. Road damage, closures, bridge and culvert damages, and berm deterioration are all expensive consequences of the forces of water.

      Noble County is vulnerable to several types of flooding, including riverine, surface and flash flooding in many areas. The most severe flooding occurs along the main streams and creeks, including the Duck Creek tributaries and main stream, as well as Wills Creek in the east. These streams wind and curve in and around settlements, neighborhoods and villages, and are capable of inundating roads, neighborhoods, and parking lots. The varying terrain makes gravitational flooding prevalent, and it takes a matter of days for the roads to clear and become passable.

      
      

      Riverine flooding affects the entire county. Despite a complex and extensive set of ditches, streams, and creeks, the county is flat in some areas, and hilly in others. Some of the ditches are of significant size, such as East Branch Duck Creek, Duck Creek, Glady Run, and Wills Creek. Other creeks are smaller and get bigger the further downstream they flow. The ditches all collect debris and crop fodder and must be continuously cleaned to maintain good flow.

      
      

      Three to four inches of rain over one to two days is a major flood incident; the entire county experiences closed roads, inaccessible properties, and flooded homes and businesses. Crop and livestock losses can be extensive in the county, causing the loss of income, jobs, and commerce. When heavy rains occur in the late winter or early spring and the rivers are covered with ice,

      jams can occur at each bend in the waterways. Septic systems, sewers, water wells, and other necessary infrastructure are non-functional, and people are forced to live in miserable conditions until the water naturally recedes.

      
      

      Flash flooding can affect Noble County as roads and streets are quickly inundated with water. While flash flooding is often temporary, it occurs in subdivisions and on the periphery of developed areas that have insufficient water management infrastructure. The area along Interstate 77 is a good example of development-caused flash flooding as the highway dumps runoff onto adjacent property. Several developments of newer homes experience water in basements and first floor living spaces because the detention of water in commercial zones is not adequate. In some areas, the sanitary and storm sewers are still combined, which leads to overwhelmed contaminated flooding and back up in basements and utility areas in homes. In other areas, old abandoned water wells, septic systems, and oil wells are over-run with water, and it is unknown if the wells become contaminated or damaged since they are no longer in use. Several roads in various areas across the county are washing away or the berms are deteriorating, sidewalks are crumbling in spots, and driveways are affected by fast flowing flooding.

      
      

      Severe storms can leave Noble County residents without shelter. Some local homes lack basements for shelter. Most multi-family apartment and condominium homes also lack storm shelters. Additionally, storm concerns include staffing of shelters should adequate shelters be developed; staffing for adequate communication with the general public regarding protective actions and general information; and bi-lingual communication capacity to effectively warn and direct residents, visitors, and workers. Storm damage is often devastating to corn, soybean and wheat crops, and livestock are left stranded without protection. Debris disposal in this beautifully landscaped rural county is incredibly expensive, and more affordable options for disposal are needed. Participants noted differences in thunderstorms and tornadoes over the past few years. They indicated that rain comes harder, heavier and faster now than in the past, and it is not uncommon to get 2-3 inches of rain in two days. Then the weather turns dry for a month until it storms again and dumps several inches of rain. This makes it more difficult to grow high yield crops, makes lawn maintenance harder, and challenges water systems to keep up in the rainy times. On the other hand, they reported that winters are milder, with less extreme cold and significantly less snow. While more wind seems to make all the storms more remarkable, winters do seem to be markedly more temperate.

      
      

      Storm damage is concerning. Many homes are frame-built homes constructed in the mid-century or before. Others are frame homes built in the late 1900’s. There are significant numbers of manufactured homes and mobile homes that do not have basements or safe areas for during storms. Some homes have basements that flood when stormwaters collect. Roofs are damaged by wind and snow-pack, and barns can be isolated and damaged by wind, hail, lightning and snow. Roads are narrow and winding, and often hard to plow, or easy to flood.

      
      

      The scenic and tourist attractions in Noble County bring tourists and others to Noble County during severe storm season. These people can get trapped in the frenzy of storm

      consequences, and not know where to go. There are few hotels and facilities to house them, and the county is often dependent upon other counties to assist. Two dams are within park areas, especially Wolf Run Lake Dam. A catastrophic dam failure amid severe storms could be incredibly challenging for Noble County responders.

      Fire is a concern due to the risk of home fires with wood-constructed and aging homes, not only in the villages but across the countryside. Rural water hauling is a difficult task and while local firefighters are skilled in this specialty, the logistics of doing so takes up resources needed on hose lines and pumpers. With personnel shortages common in the entire state, Noble County is not overwhelmed with an ample supply of trained emergency personnel. Like most rural counties, the daytime when most fires happen is exactly the same time that local responders are out of town at their jobs or dedicated to their work. This leads to insecurity and worry about how to handle public safety emergencies.

      
      

      Noble County officials are concerned about hazardous materials incidents and terrorism. With a highway system that includes interstate and state routes, the hazardous materials that flow through the county are almost immeasurable. With I-77 crossing the full length of the county, the risk for drug trafficking and the resulting hazardous materials operations that support illicit drug trade is tremendous. This also contributes to the concerns about complex coordinated events like shootings, bombings, and explosive incidents. The county is extremely accessible by an aggressor, and the transportation routes to get in and get out exist. With such a small county, law enforcement resources are limited and early detection and interruption would be a critical factor.

      
      

      Having gotten a taste of water distribution failure in 2024, the county is concerned about what drought and extreme heat could do to the residents. Supplying bottled water and following with bulk water is a difficult task that takes cooperation and collaboration with many partners. A long-term drought that negatively impacted the water supply could make some very difficult days for the county. Likewise, any utility failure could be difficult. With medical needs, people with health problems, equipment needing electricity, and all kinds of communication based upon well-charged communication devices, stakeholders were concerned about utility outages. Utility outages, specifically the delivery of a specific utility product to homes and businesses, is concerning. Water supply is not an assumed to be an adequate resource without robust rainfall. Firefighters are asking for dry hydrants across the rural areas because they are unable to haul enough water to fight considerable field fires and other fires. Officials are also slightly concerned about algal bloom in reservoirs as the agricultural community is subject to contamination through nitrogen and phosphorus-rich run off. The streams supply water for several communities, and these streams are not immune to growth of algal bloom. Along the same lines, there is concern over electrical power once coal-fired generation plants go offline. The power generation providers have warned counties in Ohio that once those plants are nonoperational, counties should expect outages during peak demand times like hot and cold spells. This would be an extreme inconvenience, and for some people a life-threatening problem, as households have become so dependent upon electricity for medical equipment, mechanical systems, and digital communication. There is another concern about the operation

      of wireless communication devices and systems. An internet outage could bring life to a

      standstill. Without internet, credit cards and devices don’t work. Without credit cards and

      other digital transfers, the financial world stands still. This concerns Noble County residents.

      
      

      Communication infrastructure is compromised. Not all areas have broadband service, and although wireless providers are expanding, there are some areas where wireless and buried communication infrastructure is very limited or non-existent. Public water is only available in certain areas; other areas are dependent upon individual wells or cisterns. Some areas where public water has recently covered as suspected of having uncapped and unprotected wells, placing the aquifer at risk for contamination.

      
      

      Infrastructure failure as the cause of utility failure is high on the list of Noble County concerns. As stated previously, the water damage to highways, roads, and streets as well as bridges, culverts, and storm sewers, is high. Villages are not able to afford timely improvements to those systems, and replacement has been out of the question. Some sewers are just insufficient in capacity or in ill repair. Many areas don’t have storm or sanitary sewers, and operate with septic systems or effluent pumps. Crop fodder blocks sewers and culverts with no way to filter It out. Power outages are not unusual and often due to failed substations or power lines; there are so many outages and people are so dependent upon electricity that residents are buying generators and installing them themselves. Back flow into the electrical system creates a potentially dangerous situation for repair crews after storms. With new forms of solar and wind power becoming common, there is concern about the battery storage of energy, and the chances of fire in the battery packs. These are difficult for the fire departments to extinguish, and often burn for days.

      
      

      Dam failure is a moderate concern for Noble County because Caldwell Lake and Wolf Run Lake dams are significant in size and potential for a life-threatening emergency; however, the likelihood of the well-maintained dams actually failing is very, very low. The dams lie within populated areas, are close to roads and highways, and could threaten the lives of many people around them. Cline Lake Dam is considered a high hazard dam, but is located in a much more remote area of the county, and most of the inundation zone is woodlands. Warning time for people to evacuate is much longer than for the other two dams. The villages of Belle Valley and Caldwell are immediately vulnerable to this threat, as are the unincorporated communities of Florence, Terrace and Maple Heights. Interstate-77 and State Route 821 are highly vulnerable to these two potential failures, impeding ingress and egress to the county in a big way.

      
      

      Roads in the area of the main creeks flood easily, and there is damage to pavement and berms as the water rushes over the road. Therefore, if dam failure were to occur, consequences would be severe where the floodwater flowed rapidly and intensely. However, it is not one of the highest concerns because of ample maintenance and repair to the dams.

      Drought and extreme heat emphasized dry weather is a perfect setting for woodland fires in Noble County. At the same time that fire departments are suffering from personnel shortages, the drier, hotter weather, combined with winds, can make a simple trash fire into a

      catastrophe. With crops, hay, and wooded area, field fires grow to life-threatening proportions, usually at the very time that fire department personnel are the least available – during the work day. The heat, if combined with power outages, would also be devastating to people with medical dependency upon electricity to operate durable medical equipment.

      Earthquake is a concern only if the quake were a 5.0 or higher due to the vulnerability of infrastructure, specifically sewers and water distribution lines that are buried, and water and communication towers that sit above ground. Although wind turbines are not common in the county right now, if they were there, an earthquake could cause extensive damage. Should an earthquake of severe magnitude strike, the utility systems would likely incur severe damage. Participants noted that the likelihood of this happening is low, but the severity would be high if it did happen.

      
      

      Land subsidence is a problem that concerns county and local officials. Some soil types in the county are easily eroded soils like sand and silt. Landowners along the waterways might be losing some of their property as the creek undercuts the embankment and land falls into the creek. This is often not noticed until the problem is severe. Erosion is a concern.

      The following table describes the hazard ranking for the county and rural areas.

      
      

      Table 2-47: Noble County Hazard Rank (Including Township & Unincorporated Areas)

      Rank	Hazard
      1	Flood
      2	Severe Thunderstorm, Wind, Tornado
      3	Utility Outage
      4	Severe Winter Storms
      5	Dam Failure
      6	Drought and Extreme Heat
      7	Fire
      8	Hazardous Materials Incident
      9	Complex Coordinated Event
      10	Land Subsidence, Landslide, Erosion
      11	Earthquake

   5. Jurisdiction Vulnerability – Villages

      Noble County has many common factors across the county, but each municipality considered its own unique vulnerabilities based upon the characteristics of the jurisdiction. Most villages are mostly residential. All villages are exceptionally small, except for Caldwell. There are unincorporated communities located across the county, including Florence, Terrace, and Maple Heights between Caldwell and Belle Valley. There are many smaller unincorporated communities throughout Noble County, and all are considered a part of Noble County for purposes of this plan. Townships are not highly populated nor are there a large number of businesses in the rural areas. There are many farms, some with livestock.

      The following section describes how each community ranked each hazard, with “1” being the most disruptive and concerning. The symbol “n/a” means that particular hazard is not applicable to that particular community.

      
      

      Batesville

      This very small community of about a hundred people sits on a hillside in the extreme northeastern part of Noble County, in Beaver Township. This is very near the Guernsey and Belmont County lines. There is no “downtown” area in Batesville, but instead it is a residential area of single-family homes. When the village was laid out in 1827, it was known as Williamsburg. Today, Batesville residents are young and old, but many are native to Noble County.

      
      

      The village is located at the juncture of Sate Route 513 and State Route 147. There are only three other streets, including Cross Street, Maywood Drive, and Second Cross Street. Beaver Creek flows east to west on the south side of the village. It is home to Batesville United Methodist Church, NEU General Store, and two cemeteries. The homes are new and old, highlighted by the landscaping, flowers and historical decorations one would expect of a small village in the Midwest.

      The stakeholders from the Batesville are were mostly concerned about severe storms, utility outages, flooding and drought. While the community has a village council, there is insufficient budget or other resources to engage in significant mitigation efforts; the village would be dependent upon county resources in a catastrophic incident.

      
      

      Batesville is almost 21 miles from Caldwell, and could easily become isolated from the rest of the county in a severe storm situation. Surrounded by hilly countryside that is mostly woodlands, there are few nearby resources. The church appears to be the only location that could serve as a gathering place or shelter area, and the NEU General Store might be the only source of any grocery or sustenance items if residents were cut off from the surrounding area. Drifted or flooded roads could worsen a severe situation, leaving the forty-or-so households to fend for themselves until help could make its way to them. Ingress and egress are concerns.

      The Beaver Township Garage is close to Batesville, and would house some road maintenance equipment that could be helpful. The Palestine Church of Christ and Beaver Baptist Church are fairly close to the village, and could potentially be a supporting shelter site. Mt. Zion Church is located to the northwest of the village by a few miles. Many of the small churches are so small that they would be likely to experience the same storm damage as homes in the area.

      
      

      Table 2-48: Batesville Hazard Rank

      Rank	Hazard
      1	Utility Failure
      2	Drought & Extreme Heat
      3	Severe Thunderstorms
      4	Severe Winter Storms
      5	Flood

      
      

      
      

      Batesville pictures as illustrated on local social media – Photographer unknown

      Belle Valley

      Slightly bigger than Batesville, Belle Valley’s 200+ residents live along Interstate 77 north of Caldwell. The village is split by the highway, with some residential area on the east side of the highway where Wolf Run Lake and Dam are located. While the dam is not actually located within the village incorporation limits, it is just a few hundred feet away. Only four miles from Caldwell, Belle Valley is linked by several neighborhoods like Florence that almost fade the village boundaries away.

      
      

      Belle Valley photographs taken by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

      
      

      Belle Valley is a residential area. Most homes are one-and-two-story older frame homes, with a few modular and mobile homes scattered within. The homes are generally wood frames with traditional roofs. The terrain is fairly flat, and the entire village is intertwined with I-77 as the SR 821 Exit branches off within the village. There is no particular commercial zone or fueling area at the interchange, besides a parking lot near the municipal building.

      There is no general commercial zone in Belle Valley. Faith Baptist Church, Corpus Chrisi Catholic Church, and Belle Valley United Methodist Church are located within the village. There is a municipal building, and the Ohio Department of Transportation has a district facility to the north of the municipal building. There are no significant buildings owned by the village that could serve as shelters or community centers during a significant disaster.

      This village is unlikely to be isolated in a storm, but more likely to be inundated with travelers on I-77 if a storm were to hit suddenly than many other communities. Serving them at the same time as serving local residents would be a nearly impossible task. There are few resources for sustenance items, and in spite of the fact that Caldwell is a mere 4 miles away, travel could be difficult with the state and interstate highway traffic. There is access to fuel and food near the interstate exchange, but there are few other options without travel to Caldwell. Wolf Run and West Fork Duck Creek both meander through the village, and could cause flooding when they rise out of their natural banks. There are small streets and culverts that could be flooded, and cause areas to be cut off and isolated. Drainage is not effective in Belle Valley.

      
      

      Belle Valley is most concerned about flooding and dam failure because the water from either could inundate the community, flooding streets and small bridges, and isolating people from the sustenance and supplies they need. They said that drainage systems are not sufficiently sized and need to be upgraded to handle the current load. Cleaning the pipes helps for a short period of time, but is not effective longer term. A power outage, catastrophic wind or other storm damage, or isolation caused by drifting snow could cripple the community quite easily. While they are close to resources, if the roads are blocked, the distance is great. The homes are of all types, frame built as well as modular and mobile, and therefore the vulnerability to storm damage is relatively high. Shelter, heat and cooling, and food and water are shared concerns.

      Fire is a concern because of the wood frame nature of the homes and the fact that some are close to one another; fire spread could occur quickly. There are many small outbuildings like garages and sheds, and these structures catch fire and cause adjacent spread easily. The streets are small and apparatus access could be challenging. Hazardous materials is a concern due to the highway, even thought the stretch through Belle Valley is short. Almost any chemical known to man is transported, and the significance of I-77 would indicate that many of the worst chemicals to handle are transported in trucks that travel this highway, sometimes travelling seventy miles an hour or more. High speed accidents with multiple vehicles carrying various chemicals could be highly challenging for response personnel and require resources they do not have.

      
      

      Table 2-49: Belle Valley Hazard Ranking

      Rank	Hazard
      1	Flood
      2	Dam/Levee Failure
      3	Utility and Infrastructure Failure
      4	Severe Storms
      5	Severe Winter Storms
      6	Drought and Extreme Heat
      7	Fire
      8	Hazardous    Materials    Incident

      Caldwell

      As a village of not quite two thousand people, Caldwell is the county seat for Noble County. By far, the largest village in the county, it is the resource center for all other jurisdictions and municipalities. Most government offices are in Caldwell, and services flow out to other communities when necessary. There is a sewage treatment plant in Caldwell, as well as a water treatment plant and other village services. There are village parks, the county fairgrounds are just south of the municipal boundary. There are several churches in the center of the village that have not only sanctuaries, but also other buildings used for their activities. Caldwell has a “downtown square” kind of area where there are government offices, some businesses, and several churches.

      
      

      Photograph of the Village of Caldwell by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

      
      

      Stakeholders were very concerned about flooding. As the village sits inside a complete loop of West Branch Duck Creek, several tributaries like Otter Run and Salt Run join into the creek as it loops around the village, increasing the size and capacity of the creek. Flooding has been serious in the past, and stakeholders believe it will continue to present challenges. Storm sewers are undersized and drainage is not optimal. There have been incidents of extreme flooding in the past, both riverine and flash flooding, necessitating rescues and resulting in loss of life.

      Utility outages are a big concern. Less than two years ago, there was a major water outage that lasted about a week. Bringing in bottled water and finding the resources to handle bulk water placed a huge burden on village resources. Power outages are seen as a huge issue as the very

      young and the very old have extreme difficulty when power goes out. Outages are now not typical but do occur. Everything gets harder in Caldwell when there is no electricity, and sheltering options are limited. The county would likely have to take a leadership role in establishing shelters for an incident, and having the supplies and equipment for a shelter is a problem. They have neither the goods nor the financial capacity to purchase them. What Red Cross used to do without hesitation has changed as volunteers are harder to find and shelters are susceptible to more and more regulation. Caldwell knows through experience how hard the job is to simply provide bottled water, as would have to be done in an extreme drought.

      
      

      Severe thunderstorms and winter storms are high on the Caldwell list of hazards. Both cause excessive amounts of debris to be created, which all needs to be hauled and properly disposed. This is very expensive for the small village. Damage to village and county properties here would be a serious demand on limited time, finances and personnel. Many residents would struggle to repair and replace homes if destroyed by storms. Stakeholders expressed great concern for storm costs, both in time, energy and funding. Shelter locations are better here than the rest of the county, but not enough facilities are set up to open a shelter without warning.

      Hazardous materials and fires are lower concerns, mostly because neither is a frequent issue. However, maintaining qualified and certified personnel to handle these calls, and to protect the general public, is difficult. Like most of Ohio, the village has a difficult time finding fire service and EMS volunteers, and is hard pressed to provide the training and exercises they need to become proficient at hazardous materials and fire response. With I-77 right there, the risk of mass casualty incidents, truck and vehicle fires, and multi-vehicle crashes increases all the time. They are worried about keeping up with the demand for personnel, apparatus and equipment.

      
      

      Caldwell Exempted Local Schools operates a middle school and high school on the northeast side of the village center. This two-story structure sits amid a residential area inside a loop of West Branch Duck Creek. The elementary school is on the southwest side of the village, near the county fairgrounds and within the West Branch Duck Creek loop as it heads back west.

      Both schools are located near highways but on local streets. There were concerns expressed about the safety of students in the schools, and the possibility of a complex coordinated event like a shooting, bomb threat, or other intentional, criminal incident.

      Table 2-50: Caldwell Hazard Rank

      Rank	Hazard
      1	Flood
      2	Utility Failure
      3	Severe Storms
      4	Severe Winter Storm
      5	Dam/Levee Failure
      6	Drought & Extreme Heat
      7	Fire
      8	Hazardous Materials Incident
      9	Complex   Coordinated   Event

      Dexter City

      This very small community with less than a hundred residents is located in the very southern part of Noble County on State Route 821, along the banks of the West Branch Duck Creek.

      Consisting of a few village streets, it is mostly residential. Dexter City Auctions and Guy’s Grocery join the Veterans Memorial and Dexter Harwoods, Inc. as local businesses. Johnny Appleseed Park and the Hideout restaurant are south of the village, outside the incorporation limits.

      
      

      Dexter City concerns are mostly with sustenance and survival from severe storms. West Branch Duck Creek flows through the village, and several tributaries feed into the creek near the village, increasing its water load in heavy storms significantly. This makes the village exceptionally vulnerable to riverine flooding. With Interstate-77, elevated and wide, to the west of the village, runoff from the highway easily dumps into the village. While the creek will absorb most of it under normal circumstances, in a flood situation, Dexter City could endure great amounts of floodwaters. Stakeholders expressed concern about residents’ physical safety during incidents, as well as the loss of utilities and services. There are concerns about first responders having the necessary equipment and supplies to help people during the worst situations. Specialized training programs for rescue capabilities was mentioned during their input as a concern. Enduring the extreme temperatures makes electricity and heating critical to the survival of Dexter City residents, whether that is during a cold wave in the winter, a heat wave during the summer, or a power outage during the spring or fall.

      
      

      There is no where in the village to house displaced residents, or to collect them for information dissemination or supply pick up. There are some churches in South Olive and Moundsville to the immediate north, but outside the incorporation limits. Reaching residents with food and supplies from Caldwell would be possible, so long as State Route 821 is not flooded and county roads to the west or east are still passable.

      
      

      Table 2-51: Dexter City Hazard Rank

      Rank	Hazard
      1	Flood
      2	Severe Thunderstorms
      3	Severe Winter Storms
      4	Drought    &    Extreme    Heat

      Sarahsville

      With not quite 150 residents, Sarahsville is home to the Noble Local School District, one of two public schools in Noble County. Without a downtown to speak of, it has a gas station and general store to supply immediate needs. The South Fork Buffalo Creek joins with Buffalo Creek in this village and wraps around the school district buildings nearby.

      
      

      Photographs of Sarahsville Village & Noble Local Schools taken by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

      
      

      Utility failure was their highest concern. Being a small village out in countryside presents a threat of damage more protected areas do not encounter. The openness allows the wind to take power lines down, and being as remote as they are, restoration might be a long time away. With some distance between the village and other areas, the prospect of being without power for an extended period of time brings thoughts of personal discomfort, injury due to exposure, and extreme difficulty if someone is dependent upon medical equipment that needs electricity. Wireless devices that work effortlessly on a normal day would become non-functional, cutting the village off from even communicating with others located elsewhere.

      Homes sit on a hillside which aids drainage, and flooding is not common. Most flood concern is first response access through nearby roads, not flooding within the village itself. The whole area is woodland and hills, creating valleys and other low-lying spots where water can collect and impede travel. Many of the homes would likely experience flooding around the home before water was able to drain away, and this furthers the fear of isolation and being cut off from resources. Basement flooding and flooding of the surrounding property would likely create difficulty, and might take a few days to drain away.

      
      

      There were also concerns for storms, both thunderstorms and winter storms. Damage to homes and the creation of excess amounts of debris would be difficult to manage. The village lacks the financial resources to engage in debris management activities and paying for assistance and disposal, as must be done. While they sit on several state highways that would be maintained by the State of Ohio, there are multiple village streets that the village would be responsible for clearing. This would be costly and difficult. Damage to home could also present a big problem. There are mobile homes, modular homes, pole barns, and frame homes in the village, all in various conditions and strengths, and a severe storm could do a lot of damage.

      This would be costly in both terms of money and time. Alternate residential arrangements would be almost impossible.

      
      

      Drought and heat could present issues of supplying bottled water and distributing it, which would challenge the small village. They are remote enough that hauling water to the community would require assistance. There is no location within the village for distribution other than an open lot or the general store area. Shelters would likely be established outside the village in nearby churches if the need were severe and had to be close by. Staffing and supplying a shelter for a long-term housing operation would require outside resources, and the village would most certainly have to work through Noble County.

      
      

      A complex coordinated event threatens Sarahsville because of the school. One of the county’s two districts, Noble Local School District, is located inside the village, with an elementary building and a high school building. While the likelihood of an incident is very low, the consequences would be disastrous, and would negatively impact the entire county as well as the village. Without extensive law enforcement or surveillance capabilities, they have concern about an aggressor posing a threat and having ample staff to handle the situation. They rely upon Noble County to help with preparation, and to aid in prevention and intervention of this kind of threat. They use as many outside resources, government sponsored resources, and in-house capabilities as they can to make sure the school, and the community, is safe from this kind of aggressive attack.

      Table 2-52: Sarahsville Hazard Rank

      Rank	Hazard
      1	Utility Failure
      2	Flood
      3	Severe Storms
      4	Severe Winter Storms
      5	Drought & Extreme Heat
      6	Complex   Coordinated   Event

      
      

      Summerfield

      This is the second-largest village in Noble County, but has less than 250 residents. It is located in Marion Township on the far mid-eastern side of the county. It’s located on Glady Run, a significant waterway that drains to Wills Creek and goes into Senecaville Lake. The area most likely to be considered the center of town is where SR 146, 147 and 513 meet and then diverge. There is a general store and two other businesses at that location. Most of the homes in Summerfield are wood frame homes of varying ages, but most of them built in mid-century years. There are some larger homes, and a few very small homes. Many of the properties have outbuildings like garages, sheds, and barns.

      
      

      Summerfield is in a slightly hilly area, and drainage is moderate to good. In high precipitation events, Glady Run could overflow its banks and cause flooding of properties that would take some time to drain. The highways add impervious area to the village, and the water standing on the roadway will dump into the properties, flooding driveways and yards. There could be

      some basement flooding as the runoff tries to get away. Flood damage is estimated to be moderate, but for a village without a large budget, that could be difficult and unaffordable.

      
      

      Photographs taken by Steve Childs, Noble County Resident

      
      

      Damage to homes from storms would be likely to occur. The area is unprotected and open. Winds, hail, and lightning could easily do damage. Debris management for a village with a significant amount of tree cover could be time and energy consuming, as well as costly.

      Utility outages would isolate the village. Without cell service and electricity for several days, , life would be very uncomfortable. Elderly and children would struggle. Churches could be shelters, but supplies and equipment would require assistance. Medically dependent people could be in a difficult situation. Restoration could be a low priority for power companies. The tree cover could make it difficult due to excess debris to clear before resetting poles and lines.

      
      

      Drought concerns the village stakeholders because resources are limited. Providing bottled water on a long-term basis would require help from the county. Distribution and life without utilities, especially water, would be challenging.

      Summerfield shares concerns about fire department staffing, training, equipment and apparatus, and availability. The department is a volunteer organization that is suffering from the same challenges as departments across the entire state.

      Table 2-53: Summerfield Hazard Rank

      Rank	Hazard
      1	Flood
      2	Severe Storms
      3	Severe Winter Storms
      4	Utility Failure
      5	Drought & Extreme Heat
      6	Fire
      7	Hazardous    Materials    Incident

      Risk-informed Approach to Vulnerability

      Hazards were averaged to arrive at a county-wide vulnerability ranking. Hazard rating totals were added and divided by the number of jurisdictions that listed the hazard as valid. There was no effort to adjust the ratings according to population counts or property values. This was a rating intended to simply give the elected and appointed officials an indication of what hazards could be addressed collaboratively and how important each might be when looking at the entire county.

      
      

      This approach and information will also facilitate cooperation between communities as they can, from this plan, identify those hazards that are particularly relevant to their community, but they can also see what is relevant to the entire county, joining forces in some cases to address a hazard collaboratively.

      While each community would ideally address the most concerning hazards first, opportunities to address hazards do not always happen in that order. Oftentimes the chance to change or modify a risk factor comes after that hazard has impacted the community. Sometimes the most concerning hazards present no opportunities for change, or the mechanism of change is so expensive it is not realistic. Sometimes the hazards are not frequent, but the impact would cause such a severe consequence that change is highly desirable, but not necessarily likely. This plan allows communities to work together, to have information about what other communities are doing, and to use opportunity to its fullest in addressing mitigation efforts.

      
      

      The following table shows the ranking of hazards by each municipality, and by Noble County’s unincorporated areas. This ranking is relevant in that it is evidence of conversation and study that identified where the most damage is attributed, and which risks are dramatic but not costly or deadly. Consideration was given to special circumstances of a given risk.

      Communities were asked to include those hazards that they felt, based upon findings and historical data, were a threat to the residents. They were instructed to consider how the threats might be mitigated, and those ideas and intentions appear in the next section of this plan, 03 Mitigation Strategies.

      Table 2-54: Countywide Overall Average Vulnerability Prioritization

      				Complex Coordinated Event			Dam Failure			Drought & Extreme Heat			Earthquake			Fire			Flood			Hazardous Materials Incident			Land Subsidence & Erosion			Severe Storms			Utility Failure			Severe Winter Storms
      Noble County 2025 Rank			10			7			5			11			4			1			8			9			2			6			3
      Batesville 2025 Rank			0			0			2			0			0			5			0			0			3			1			4
      Belle Valley 2025 Rank			0			2			6			0			7			1			8			0			4			3			5
      Caldwell 2025 Rank			9			5			6			0			7			1			8			0			3			2			4
      Dexter City 2025 Rank			0			0			4			0			0			1			0			0			2			0			3
      Sarahsville 2025 Rank			6			0			5			0			0			2			0			0			3			1			4
      Summerfield 2025 Rank			0			0			5			0			6			1			7			0			2			4			3
      TOTAL SCORE			25			14			33			11			24			12			31			9			19			17			26
      # Jurisdictions ranking risk			3			3			7			1			4			7			4			1			7			6			7
      Adjusted Score			8.33			4.66			4.71			11.00			6.00			1.71			7.75			9.00			2.71			2.83			3.71
      	COUNTYWIDE RANK			9			5			6			11			7			1			8			10			2			3			4

      
      

      2.3.7 National Risk Index Vulnerability Assessment

      The National Risk Index compares the fourteen census tracts by hazard and establishes a vulnerability assessment for each area. Map 2-12 shows the census areas and also illustrates how the incorporated jurisdictions relate to the census tracts. This plan uses both census area and jurisdictional information. Census tracts are described and mapped on page 81 of this section.

      The Vulnerability Tables are included are taken from the National Risk Assessment tool. This assessment establishes the county’s vulnerability by census tract and broken into individual hazard categories. It includes the exposures as well as expected annual losses for various hazards. They are included as appendix 07 NRI Exposure and Expected Annual Loss Tables.

3. RISK ANALYSIS

   To estimate disaster losses, a damage profile that considers the potential impact and loss from each hazard is developed. In this section, loss estimates from floods, earthquakes, winter storms, tornadoes, thunderstorms, windstorms, and drought are examined. While the losses from these incidents are often more of a temporary and inconvenient nature, significant disruption to business, some property damage, and loss of life is possible under extreme or unusual circumstances. This information was used to determine Noble County’s risk for each specific hazard.

   1. Dam/Levee Failure Damage Profile

      There are three high-hazard dams in Noble County, and there are other lower-hazard dams. Two structures are publicly owned by local and state owners. One is privately owned. The condition of each structure ranges from satisfactory to poor, and they have some indication of maintenance needs in the coming years for some of them. There is an emergency action plan

      on file with ODNR and the Noble County EMA for these structures. The owners all work closely with the Noble County EMA to establish notification processes and to obtain assistance if a dam were ever to fail. There are regular inspections of these facilities. All professional design and management are considered adequate, and there is no failure anticipated. The inundation zones around the dams include nice homes, small businesses, roadways and industries. The losses would reasonably be expected to include the loss of life and significant property damage if two of the high hazard dams were to fail. The third would have limited impact.

      
      

      None of the other lesser classified dams are expected to cause any damages if they were to fail except for damage to the owner’s property. These dams appear on the ODNR dam locator but do not appear on the National Inventory of Dams. All of these dams are described thoroughly earlier in this section, and within the jurisdiction having authority sections.

   2. Drought/Extreme Heat Damage Profile

      Noble County can experience slight drought and occasionally experiences periods of decreased precipitation during the agriculture-growing season. The climate is moderate and does not turn arid at any time. There is not any significant history of an extended drought that would cause casualties or property damage more significant than a reduction in crop yields for a single growing season nor is there any history of extensive crop losses in excess of a single crop year. Precipitation patterns can contribute to a series of years with higher or lower average yields due to slight dryness and late planting or harvest because of excessive rainfall.

      
      

      Climate change, varied weather patterns, and weather trends could have a significant effect on Noble County, especially for agriculture, natural habitat areas and woodlands, and the elderly or disadvantaged populations in the county. The CMRA tool indicates temperatures could easily rise several degrees by the middle of the century, which puts elderly and medically challenged individuals at higher risk, and makes incidents involving power loss or storm damage more serious.

      The detail of those heat projections includes the number of days with a heat index that is problematic. In general, the days of higher temperatures in the summer months will likely become more plentiful, with runs of days above ninety degrees becoming longer, and periods between rain events longer as well. This will make the vulnerable even more so.

      
      

      Because Noble County has some livestock producers, the effects of high temperatures could be devastating to those individual farms. There is limited ability to control the environment in livestock barns. Death, dehydration, and illness will be far more prevalent when temperatures soar for longer periods of time and to higher levels. If increasing temperatures are combined with less rainfall, or even longer periods of time during episodes of rainfall, the limited availability of water for animals will be difficult for farmers to manage. Most livestock water is provided by wells; if wells become dry, alternate sources of water will be through commercial providers. Livestock require hydration; the absence of adequate hydration negatively impacts growth, milk production, reproduction, and the health of the animals. The negative economic impact will be significant.

      Farm crop production and trees and vegetation in the woodland areas may be negatively impacted by higher temperatures and changes in rainfall. If rain is scant after planting or during pollination seasons, germination and maturation will not occur. If rain is extremely light or heavy, yields will be negatively impacted. If rain is excessive during either planting or harvest season, the crops cannot get planted, they don’t grow when they wash away, weeds grow profusely in wet, soggy ground, and plant disease thrives on very dry or very wet conditions.

      Less rainfall could adversely impact the underbrush and small vegetation in the woodlands, as well as the trees, eliminating food sources for wildlife and drawing them into inhabited areas for survival, or in facilitating their starvation.

      
      

      Many rural homes, depend upon wells for water in many cases. As rainfall becomes inconsistent, wells dry up or cisterns overflow. Aquifers can be depleted from drought, or from drainage due to aggressive quarrying activities. For those water systems that pull from the ground water supply or local waterway, less rainfall up the entire watershed would result in less available water for treatment and distribution. While the average rainfall may not change much, the way in which it falls and the spread of amounts over the year will have a huge impact on household use of water. Should high temperatures occur, many rural homes are not air conditioned, and workers who are outside don’t have the ability to control an outdoor environment. The power grid would be stressed to handle such temperatures and heat index levels. Those who live with economic difficulties could find themselves unable to afford electricity at these levels. Older county residents with medical conditions may suffer due to these circumstances. Underserved and disadvantaged people may suffer more because they have so few resources, and may eventually migrate to the cities for environmental amenities.

      The cascading economic downturn for the county could be damaging to all county residents and businesses.

      
      

      In a rural county with open fields and much wooded area, fire could become an issue. If water is not generously available to fight fires, the spread of field fires across hundreds of acres in the hot, dry summer weather could be significant. Dry or dead underbrush will fuel fires that start, and make them significantly larger and hotter. The fire spread could be significant due to drought conditions, and even worsened by wind. Not only would those losses affect agriculture and natural resources, but also would endanger the many small businesses, villages, residences and schools built in the rural areas of Noble County. The CMRA wildfire projections support this prediction. Chances of field fires is already relatively high; the fire weather index will increase by mid-century.

      
      

      For the purpose of loss estimates, only the major cash grain crops were considered because those crops constitute the majority of production in Noble County. Production livestock can be sold in spite of drought; other cash crops such as cucumbers, tomatoes, and vegetables are heavily insured. While many farmers purchase crop insurance for all crops, including grain, data does not exist to determine the percentage of crops that are insured in Noble County. The loss of tree canopy is not quantified, but would have an environmental effect.

   3. Earthquake Damage Profile

      Earthquakes are geologically possible and enjoy some frequency, but high severity is rare in Noble County. There is nothing on record above a 3.0 rating. The county has directly experienced minor earthquakes in the past but they have all been minor and have caused no known damage. As such, there is little data to support committing resources to earthquake-proofing structures. Since the villages have no resources to commit to earthquake potential assessment and damage projections, the county has been charged with doing those tasks.

      
      

      Examination of the loss projections indicated that most damage would affect wood and unreinforced masonry structures, and a great majority of those would be residential or agricultural buildings. Single family homes would be more affected than other residential buildings. Mobile homes would be at high risk due to their lack of permanent foundations. Of critical facilities, schools would experience most of the damage due to masonry construction. Limited infrastructure is expected to be damaged, including bridges, and many

      electrical, communication and water lines. Electrical lines would take the longest to repair and replace.

      Dam failure is a concern in a serious earthquake. With all structures being earthen in nature, the shifting and movement below the surface would be destructive, and could easily compromise the integrity of the structures in a way that would not be easily assessed. The two publicly owned dams are at highest risk for this to occur.

      
      

      Because of the low risk and high cost of implementing mitigation strategies related to earthquake risk, the planning team did not identify aggressive actions. It was determined the best plan of action was to charge Noble County with mitigation for this hazard. As they arrived at this decision, they considered earthquake damage projections in the National Risk Index EAL.

   4. Flood Damage Profile

      Noble County is vulnerable to moderate flood damage, from a combination of riverine flooding and flash flooding. The areas most likely to sustain flood damage are those adjacent or in close proximity to the larger waterways, including some low-lying roadways and areas close to storm sewers that may be undersized or inadequate to handle runoff from heavy precipitation events. Areas along the branches of Duck Creek and Wills Creek, and other major tributaries across the county are prone to flooding. These creeks can be wide and deep in some spots, but most long-term or serious flooding occurs along the waterways, especially in low lying areas.

      
      

      In Noble County, damaging flooding is generally preceded by several days of heavy precipitation, and perhaps exacerbated by sudden melting of snow and ice or over-saturation of the soils prior to the start of rainfall. If water is unable to drain away as fast as it comes due to frozen soils or saturation, flash flooding occurs in the streets, roadways, and some low-lying properties. Most residential damage is limited to flooded basements and access issues in general. There are several repetitive loss properties in the county known to emergency managers.

      Some residents feel that the rainfall is more intense and more frequent than it used to be. There is also concern that field fodder and debris from fallen trees washes into storm drains and clogs the storm sewers in some of the villages and developed portions of townships where they have storm sewers. There is a general opinion that when culverts and bridges are replaced, the new structures should be larger and have greater capacity. There are areas along the interstate highway that are prone to flooding. With the multi-lane highway elevated, and West Branch of Duck Creek following the same general pathway, flooding of smaller streets and highways along the path of the creek is common. There are other roads in the county that follow roadways, and these flood in low-lying vulnerable areas. Whatever the cause, flash flooding and the storm sewer capacity is more challenged than in the past, and this makes flash flooding more serious even though it is still a temporary condition.

      
      

      Flood damage in Noble County can include damage and destruction of physical buildings, infrastructure, crops, and livestock. With livestock in the county, pastured animals could easily be trapped away from food and shelter, causing a serious threat to their well-being. Residential structural damages could include damage to single- and multi-family homes, as well as mobile homes. Mobile homes are of particular concern to local officials. Commercial and industrial structural damages could include buildings used for manufacturing, product handling, transportation, warehousing, retail, business, and industrial, and the capital equipment associated with those uses. Agricultural structures would include barns for livestock, equipment storage, and commodity storage, as well as the contents of those buildings, which constitute business assets such as production animals, equipment, and machinery. The force of water could damage grain bins, transfer legs, and elevator systems very easily. Government, nonprofit, and educational institutions include critical structures like fire stations, police stations, hospitals, offices, schools, and special facilities like garages and maintenance buildings, and the capital contents of those structures.

      
      

      Actual structural damage could include flooding in residential basements and ground floors, compromise of the foundations and utility systems, and destruction of the contents of those structures. Mobile and manufactured homes can be pushed off their foundations by water, and water can compromise the integrity of the foundation even if it doesn’t move the foundation.

      People are at risk from floodwater because household and industrial chemicals substances can contaminate floodwater and result in hazardous chemical exposure for rescuers, responders, and victims. Livestock could be significantly threatened by contaminated flood water and have no way to escape or the ability to protect themselves. This damage would result in large amounts of debris to manage, including finish, structural, and foundation materials and animal carcasses and waste.

      
      

      Roads can flood for short periods of time in Noble County, potentially closing businesses and institutions and crippling commerce for short periods of time. This period of business shutdown generally is confined to the floodplain and flash flooding areas and lasts for only a day or two once the rain stops. The most crippling factor is that the development in Noble County, in general, follows the waterways, placing the most vulnerable property in the most likely-affected areas.

      Some village and township areas exist where storm sewers are of insufficient size and capacity to handle rapid and heavy downfall. Depending on exactly where precipitation is heaviest, if the ground is frozen, saturated, or dry, and how full waterways are at the time of the event, significant flooding can occur on roads, streets, bridges, and neighborhoods. These flood-prone areas are not highly populated with residential or commercial structures but significant inconvenience can result when businesses close, access is cut off, and drainage systems are overwhelmed. Stored farm chemicals are at risk of being absorbed into the floodwaters, distributed over flooded areas, or damaged an, depositing hazardous runoff in floodwater. In some areas, livestock in pastures may be at risk, depending on which waterways flood, and can become stranded or being injured before the floodwater recedes. Agricultural land that is heavily tiled drains quickly, facilitating rapid and significant amounts of runoff in ditches, streams, and rivers. This contributes to downstream flooding as the waterways attempt to drain the county.

      
      

      Countywide flooding in Noble County would occur only under severe circumstances. As the county has very logical floodplain area along the major waterways, extremely heavy rainfall could flood a large part of the county, and extenuating circumstances like rapid ice thaw amid heavy rainfall and snowmelt could make it worse. Specifically, a multiple-day heavy rain event of more than 10 inches is suspected to be capable of widespread flooding, especially if it comes early in the spring and is combined with snowmelt and ice melting.

      It is unlikely that loss of life would be attributable primarily due to moderate flooding, but extreme circumstances in Belle Valley and Caldwell have caused deaths in the past. A rapid onset of extreme amounts of water along State Route 821, and through Belle Valley and Caldwell could be incredibly dangerous. Should overtopping of the two dams in that area occur simultaneously, catastrophic flooding could impact the entire area. Power would likely be affected, and first response access could be severely compromised.

      
      

      The NRI flood exposure numbers indicate values due only to riverine flooding, but this vulnerability assessment narrative also included flash, surface and areal flooding. Local stakeholders felt that severe flooding happens rarely, but the various types of pluvial flooding are far more common and frequent. With the recent downbursts and rain bombs attributed to climate change, they felt pluvial flooding was worthy of full assessment.

   5. Severe Thunderstorm Damage Profile

      Thunderstorms are relatively frequent but not severe in Noble County. During summers when heat builds up in the afternoon, a muggy and hot day can easily end with thunderstorms that include hail, lightning and heavy rain, and/or wind. Microbursts often add strong straight-line winds that destroy standing crops ready for harvest. There has seemed to be an increase in night-time storms the past couple years, bringing heavy rain overnight. These storms can develop quickly, provide little advance warning to residents, and cause significant destruction and disruption.

      Thunderstorms that include hail are generally spotty and inconsistent. The fluctuating temperatures in the atmosphere necessary for hail to form do not occur frequently in Ohio. When hail falls, damage most frequently occurs to vehicles, roofs, and siding on buildings, and depending upon the season and growth stage at the time, farm crops. Rarely is there a loss of life or significant bodily injury. Thunderstorm winds can damage standing crops and are most damaging when wheat, soybeans, and corn are ready for harvest. Wheat is harvested in July, but soybeans and corn are not harvested until early fall. Corn is frequently at the pollination stage in July; at any point after stalks mature, hail and wind can shred and tear the leaves, flatten the stalks, and destroy the ears that are in the formative stages. This situation drops crop production to drastically low levels, causing an extreme loss to farmers for that year’s crop. With only twenty percent of the county’s land in production, this outcome would be limited in its effect.

      
      

      Thunderstorms are a frequent but low risk hazard in Noble County. The combination of hail, lightning, precipitation, and wind caused by thunderstorms can inflict damage in any area of the county. Thunderstorms are somewhat common but are typically minor and cause more inconvenience than actual damage. Lightning that directly strikes structures or objects is possible but infrequent. Moderate to severe damage from hail, lightning, and thunderstorm wind, including loss of life and property, is possible but statistics indicate the frequency is extremely low. Much of the damage caused by these storms is privately covered with insurance or property owner funds. Rarely is this kind of damage covered by public programs.

      
      

      When severe thunderstorms are accompanied by tornadoes, damage from the tornadoes is likely to be more significant than that caused by the thunderstorm. Straight-line winds, the result of downbursts and microbursts, can be as destructive as tornado and cause damages similar to those described in the tornado EF scale. Because of elevation variations, Noble County has some natural protection against this kind of damage as homes and buildings sometimes have protection from the wind.

      The NRI does not specifically list exposures for severe thunderstorms. It lists hail, lightning, and strong wind, all three of which are components of a strong thunderstorm. Therefore, the must be considered and added together to project an accurate estimation of loss.

   6. Tornado Damage Profile

      Noble County is universally vulnerable to tornado damage. The county has some generally flat terrain, but the hilly parts would allow a tornado to slow down or break apart. Although tornado warnings are issued several times each year, tornadoes do not occur frequently in the county. They are most common in the spring although they can develop throughout the summer and fall, and most recently in Ohio, during nighttime hours. Historically, the magnitude of tornadoes in Noble County is between EF-0 and EF-2, with over eighty percent of the incidents on record involving and EF-0 or EF-1 tornado.

      Noble County does have several hundred mobile homes throughout the county. Most are lived in year-round. These structures are more vulnerable to wind damage because they are less

      secured to the ground than buildings with foundations, have no basement or sub-terrain level, and are lighter weight and made of less wind resistant material than traditionally constructed homes. Manufactured homes, common in Noble County, are more vulnerable that stick-built structures, especially when installed on a concrete slab instead of a basement. There are few safe rooms added to structures in Noble County.

      The majority of residential structures in the county are constructed from wood, concrete, brick, and stone. Many homes are older and were constructed using wooden materials; these homes are built on traditional foundations with basements or crawl spaces. Some newer homes are concrete slab construction without basements or crawl spaces. These homes are most prone to superficial damage, roof damage, and falling trees during tornadoes and severe windstorms.

      
      

      Many farms and rural homesteads have outbuildings that house business assets, including equipment, supplies and goods, and livestock. These buildings may be traditional stick-built wooden structures with tresses and heavy beams, or may be newer pole buildings with varying steel structure. Many of the newer buildings are single-story structures with wide roof spans, and are therefore very vulnerable to wind and tornado. Some of these buildings house livestock and others house equipment. There are some farms with grain systems, all very vulnerable to wind damage.

      Commercial buildings are constructed of concrete, brick, concrete block, stone, and wood. These structures are generally built on concrete slabs with structural support trusses and pitched roof construction to facilitate snow and ice melt and runoff. Flat roof buildings, such as shopping centers and big-box type retail stores, are susceptible to heavy snow in blizzard conditions; there is no identifiable history of roof collapse incidents due to snow or ice.

      
      

      Property damage from tornadoes in Noble County most frequently includes damaged roofs, gutters, downspouts, trees, and, occasionally, an entire building. Mobile homes are damaged or destroyed in the most serious incidents. Outbuildings, barns, and storage buildings can be damaged because these structures are less resistant to wind damage and are frequently built on concrete slabs or dirt foundations.

   7. Wind Storm Damage Profile

      Wind incidents are somewhat frequent across Ohio, including in Noble County. The county has experienced some high wind events in recent years. While not as damaging in Noble County as they have been in others, these events typically damage trees, which lead to obstructed roadways and downed power lines. Much of the damage done within woodland area is likely not assessed, but remains damage nonetheless. Crop damage and destruction is also a concern. When high winds damage young and maturing crops, yields can be significantly

      reduced, which negatively impacts the county’s economy. Structural damage to roofs, downspouts, and siding is not uncommon.

   8. Winter Storm Damage Profile

      Winter storm damages can potentially affect homes, businesses, and properties across Noble County. No singular area is more or less vulnerable to snowfall or winter weather conditions than another. The rolling terrain provides some opportunity for water or snow to accumulate in low-lying areas, or on narrower, lower parts of roads and bridges. The varying elevations allow drifting and blowing snow to create low visibility conditions on roadways across the county, especially if drivers are not highly familiar with the roadway. Livestock operations in the county are particularly vulnerable to blizzards, ice, snow, and other winter weather hazards as they incur difficulty in managing pastured animals, feeding in remote barns, or watering animals when water supply lines are frozen. Even in adverse weather conditions, the animals must be fed, cows must be milked, manure must be removed from barns, and operations must continue. This requires daily ingress and egress to these farms, bringing in food and supplies, and hauling out raw product and waste. Winter storms threaten and restrict access to these properties, making winter weather a concern for this part of the economy.

      
      

      Power outages can occur anywhere in the county during blizzards or snow storms that include significant ice, wind, or heavy amounts of snow. Residential electric lines are mostly above ground and vulnerable to wind and ice, although the power companies have improved the distribution systems in recent years. Almost no areas of residential properties have buried electric lines. Major supply lines are above ground as they enter Noble County from the generation plants; therefore, power to the substations is vulnerable to wind and heavy snow and ice even if the residential lines are not. Icing is one of the most dangerous and most impacting components of winter storms. Power outages are probable, frequent, and can be widespread. Farms with livestock operations are much more vulnerable to significant loss; the feeding systems, milking and collection systems, and other critical operations are all based upon an electrical supply to run mechanized equipment. Without electricity, animals are not fed, eggs are not collected, and dairy cows are not milked. Product goes to waste, animals get sick, and farms lose a lot of income.

      
      

      The loss estimates for winter storms are relatively low in spite of the recent and memorable winter seasons. There is no identifiable history of property loss due to snow pack, ice, or other winter storm-related causes. Reasonably anticipated losses from winter storms would include content loss such as food and perishables due to power interruptions. Losses in anything but an unusual, unpredictable incident would not include structures or infrastructure.

   9. Countywide Risk Analysis

      Based on the available hazard and vulnerability information, Noble County has risk for damage from a variety of disasters. To determine the county’s overall level of risk, each hazard was evaluated and scored based on common criteria. The criteria included frequency, response duration, speed of onset, magnitude, and impact on businesses, people, and property.

      Table 2-55 describes the overall scale used to score each hazard. Table 2-56 provides details on the scale used to measure magnitude. The composite scores for each hazard and their respective rank are identified in table 2-57.

      Table 2-55: Vulnerability Assessment Scale

      Score	Frequency	Response Duration	Speed of Onset	Magnitude	Business Impact	Human Impact	Property Impact
      1	None	< ½ Day	> 24 Hours	Localized	< 24 Hours	Minimum	< 10%
      2	Low	< 1 Day	12-24 Hours	Limited	1 Week	Low	10-25%
      3	Medium	< 1 Week	6-12 Hours	Critical	2 Weeks	Medium	25-50%
      4	High	< 1 Month	< 6 Hours	Catastrophic	> 30 Days	High	> 50%
      5	Excessive	> 1 Month	< 1 Hour	Catastrophic	> 1 year	Ext. High	>75%

      
      

      Frequency

      Hazard events that occur regularly are a higher risk than those that occur infrequently.

      • 1 = None/Once in 100 years

      • 2 = Low/Once in 50 years

      • 3 = Medium/Once in 25 years

      • 4 = High/Once in 1-3 years

      • 5 = Excessive/More than annual

        Response Duration

        Response duration is defined as the amount time the response is anticipated to last.

      • 1 = Less than ½ day

      • 2 = Less than 1 day

      • 3 = Less than 1 week

      • 4 = Less than 1 month

      • 5 = More than 1 month

        
        

        Speed of Onset addresses the amount of warning a community has before impact occurs.

      • 1 = More than 24 hours

      • 2 = 12-24 hours

      • 3 = 6-12 hours

      • 4 = Less than 6 hours

        Magnitude

        Magnitude is rated using standard damage scales such as the Enhanced Fujita Scale, or through development of a local comparative scale that outlines and assesses potential damages at consistent levels using the established damage scales. Some scales from other geographic regions, such as the North East Snow Index Scale, were used as models to develop a comparative tool for local use. Some of the findings in this area are based upon subjective opinions of stakeholders and provided in the context of local institutional memory of certain types of incidents. This is vulnerable to error because community memory is dependent upon the stakeholders participating, and some may not have a personal memory of past events.

                                             Table 2-56: Magnitude Assessment Scale                      

        Score	Tornado	Windstorm	Flood	Earthquake	Drought	Winter Storm
        1	EF-0/1	<65 mph	Minor	<5.9	D-0 Very Dry D-1 Moderate	<8” snow
        2	EF-2	65-75 mph	Moderate	6.0-6.9	D-2 Severe	8-12” snow
        3	EF-3	76-85 mph	Significant	7.0-7.9	D-3 Extreme	12-16” snow
        4	EF-4/5	>86 mph	Major	>8.0	D-4 Exceptional	>16” snow

        
        

        Business Impact refers to the economic impact on a community and business closure times.

      • 1 = Less than 24 hours

      • 2 = 1 week

      • 3 = At least 2 weeks

      • 4 = More than 30 days

        
        

        Human Impact is defined as the number of lives potentially lost for a particular hazard.

      • 1 = Minimum/Minor injuries

      • 2 = Low/Some injuries

      • 3 = Medium/Multiple severe injuries

      • 4 = High/Multiple fatalities

        Property Impact is defined as the percentage of parcels potentially affected in a given event.

      • 1 = Less than 10% damaged

      • 2 = 10-25% damaged

      • 3 = 25-50% damaged

      • 4 = More than 50% damaged

The factors identified above were assigned values as described, and rated against anecdotal analysis based upon history and severity. This scoring mechanism resulted in very similar assessment of risks and vulnerabilities for the countywide vulnerability analysis. Each area assessed hazards similarly, but did not include the same hazards. The scoring was done considering all communities equally. Adjustments were not made for population levels, historical experiences, vulnerability to future development, or any other factors.

The supply of resources to address post-incident needs was a heavy consideration for Noble County jurisdictions. When mutual aid stresses all county responders, that brings a practical adjustment in how dangerous certain threats are perceived to be. When distance from needed resources is great, that also has an impact on ratings. The Noble County stakeholders took a very practical approach to their considerations, bearing in mind the specific conditions and circumstances they would be faced with during each kind of disaster, and their answers were in consideration of those factors.

Table 2-57: Comprehensive Countywide Risk Analysis